Look who's on the front of ESPN.com in the Grantlad section (Teams on the Rise) | Page 2 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Look who's on the front of ESPN.com in the Grantlad section (Teams on the Rise)

roy_miami said:
Interesting the prediction is 8th easiest schedule which is the opposite of the average fan who seems to be under the impression we have the toughest sked in the league.

I listen to all their NFL podcasts and in one of the earlier ones they briefly talked about the Dolphins and Mays said 'don't get me started on them, they're going to be horrible. But lets save that for the AFCE edition.' Then there was none of that talk during the actual AFCE podcast, its as if they came to their senses after studying the team in depth. I think the perception is we embarrassingly lost back to back games as 95% favorites, and that is going to carry over to this season.

Here is the reality for me:
-we were dogs at Buffalo and depending on how bad Tannehill's knee was we might have been dogs week 17 too, at the very least it was a lot closer to a coin flip than a surefire victory.
-just getting rid of the asshat Jeff Ireland is going to be a huge morale boost for most of the locker room, it doesn't even matter if Hickey is a worse GM or an even bigger asshat right now.
-Albert and James will likely look like bad signings years from now but they could be exactly what the doctor ordered for the team right now.
-this is the deepest most talented roster I can remember for the longest time.
-and last but not least, I have analytical data that suggests Philbin might be elite right now, which (and I know I'm pretty much alone here) is backed up with what I see with my eyes. Here's what you need to understand about analytics: if there is a stat that suggests elite then chances are quite good that it is a predictive stat. If I knew nothing of Russell Wilson except his passer rating stats I would say he's highly likely to turn out to be elite. I actually do know basically nothing of college football but I'll go out on a limb and say AJ McCarron's analyitics jump off the page to me as a likely candidate to be a very successful QB.

As for what I see with my eyes I'm like the Nate Silver of evaluating head coaches. I have a very simple rule: if you manage the game properly you are probably a good coach. Thats it. Jim Harbaugh, Bill Belichick and Joe Philbin are three of the best at game management in the game today. Contrast that with three of the worst I've seen Tony Sparano, Jason Garrett and Jim Schwartz.

Understanding what proper game management is is the difficult bit however. I know a bunch of you donkeys are going to try to come up with some game management mistakes but you are wrong, you just are. If I am an expert on anything I'm an expert at game theory. Everybody thinks they are an expert, and I've learned through the years that its fruitless to try to show a donkey why he is a donkey, but the truth of the matter is most of you simply don't understand and will never understand. And the evidence of that fact is Awsi Dooger wouldn't be cleaning up in Vegas if every expert was really as good as they think they are.

Here's a simple test: anybody that thinks go/go-go was childs play I can immediately dismiss as a hopeless as far as game theory is concerned. Go/go-go was at worst EV neutral and at best brilliant. Anybody with half a clue should be able to figure out why its EV neutral. Working out how it could be brilliant is a much more difficult assignment and I'll be impressed if there is another poster on this board that can get to that conclusion.
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You, sir, are a genius.

:hclap:
 
roy_miami said:
Here's another thing I've learned over the years about gambling donkeys: most, if not all of them, claim to be huge winners...
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That's not just restricted to Vegas.. My experience from observation and from being a best bud for decades with a top horse handicapper is that those who are successful in most cerebrally-fueled, results-driven endeavors confidently go about their business quietly, rarely feeling a need to brag about their scores.
 
news flash bill jared allen is washed up...chicagos gonna find that out...tannehill is better than foles but he wont come close to that 2 int all season number foles put up last year...matt moore despite a week 3 preseason game performance against the cowboys would be a terrible up tempo qb starting option...dion jordan is not gonna give us much pass rush wise at that weight nor could he play a lb that some keep beating the drum on with his current lateral movement skills at that weight...the run d is a problem the lbs are awful doesnt matter what you plug in from the roster it's gonna be seriously exposed if it plays every down...

and how can i take you serious when you still talk up rg3 as a franchise qb...fail forward fast stand in the pocket and read the field progression qb...

all that said if the pass pro is sound this teams a playoff contender...the offense though will have to carry the mail
 
hooshoops said:
news flash bill jared allen is washed up...chicagos gonna find that out...tannehill is better than foles but he wont come close to that 2 int all season number foles put up last year...matt moore despite a week 3 preseason game performance against the cowboys would be a terrible up tempo qb starting option...dion jordan is not gonna give us much pass rush wise at that weight nor could he play a lb that some keep beating the drum on with his current lateral movement skills at that weight...the run d is a problem the lbs are awful doesnt matter what you plug in from the roster it's gonna be seriously exposed if it plays every down...

and how can i take you serious when you still talk up rg3 as a franchise qb...fail forward fast stand in the pocket and read the field progression qb...

all that said if the pass pro is sound this teams a playoff contender...the offense though will have to carry the mail
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So, you basically agreed with most of the things that he wrote
 
MarinoEqualsGod said:
So, you basically agreed with most of the things that he wrote
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he gave you an either or ..but it's also part of what the whole premise of the article was about...player a could be this or he could be that...

anyways the news flash thing was just about jared allen who i can tell is in it for a pay check this year...glad he's not my starting de

i do think for the most part he's got teams tiered correctly though...the top 8 contenders for the top pick in 2015 hard to argue with for instance...
 
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hooshoops said:
he gave you an either or ..but it's also part of what the whole premise of the article was about...player a could be this or he could be that...

anyways the news flash thing was just about jared allen who i can tell is in it for a pay check this year...glad he's not my starting de

i do think for the most part he's got teams tiered correctly though...the top 8 contenders for the top pick in 2015 hard to argue with for instance...
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I don't know if he said anything glowing about Allen in this series but in the podcast he said pretty much exactly what you are saying. They said well the guy almost retired so I doubt he'll still be playing at his usual level...
 
I hate myself for reading Grantland so much. I think Simmons is a douche, but I can't help liking the site. Having said that, they need a new NFL writer. Barnwell rambles on with the best of them, but he's not good. He's usually wrong. Not very insightful, and not remotely engaging to read. Zach Lowe is a tremendous NBA writer. I hope they find his NFL equivalent.
 
ConvenientTruth said:
Simmons rarely write about football...he has assembled a good team and many articles are very well written with plenty of examples and good explanations.
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Pretty much this. He is a douche but Grantland is an excellent website.
 
roy_miami said:
Here's another thing I've learned over the years about gambling donkeys: most, if not all of them, claim to be huge winners...
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I'm sure Awsi is terribly offended. But here is another thing I've learned. Someone who says they are a self appointed expert who spouts off a bunch of jibberish that proves he has no idea what he is talking about, is usually drunk stupid or both.
 
roy_miami said:
Here's a simple test: anybody that thinks go/go-go was childs play I can immediately dismiss as a hopeless as far as game theory is concerned. Go/go-go was at worst EV neutral and at best brilliant. Anybody with half a clue should be able to figure out why its EV neutral. Working out how it could be brilliant is a much more difficult assignment and I'll be impressed if there is another poster on this board that can get to that conclusion.
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I'm not sure who you were replying to, but I for one would like what you have so say about go/go-go. The only thing I can think of is, if the defense starts to react as if they know what play it's going to be, you can change it and burn them.
 
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