Marlins to move D-Willis

[MikeO]

Statistics don't support your argument. http://www.baseball-reference.com/w/willido03.shtml

Willis' ERA+, which accounts for park factors:
2003 - 122
2004 - 102
2005 - 153
2006 - 112
2007 - 86

His numbers, of course, are all over the place. He's probably not as good as he showed in 2005, but he's definitely better than he is showing this year. In the whole, he's probably about 10-15% better than the average starting pitcher.

So, Willis is an above-average pitcher who eats up a ton of innings, is still just 25 years old, and is signed to a reasonable contract through 2008. In this market, that still has plenty of value.

Throw the numbers out the window. He isn't an ACE of a staff. A solid #2 yes, but not an ACE. He isn't going to take the ball in the big game and win it for ya. And he is more media hype than he is actual legit stuff.

 

[phunwin]

Throw the numbers out the window. He isn't an ACE of a staff. A solid #2 yes, but not an ACE. He isn't going to take the ball in the big game and win it for ya. And he is more media hype than he is actual legit stuff.

Good point. Why use cold, hard statistical evidence when an off-the-cuff observation will do just as well?

And actually, I said he was an innings-eating, durable above-average pitcher, not an ace. Although in today's game, a guy who can take the ball every fifth day and give you 7 good innings most of the time does qualify as an ace.