Miami among teams showing the most interest in WR Roscoe Crosby

[Jimmy James]

He won't do it. Having less picks in the REAL draft is less leverage for the 06 draft. If there's a player he really wants and he's already used TWO picks in the supplemental he won't have enough ammunition to move up and grab that player.

I think you're confusing Nick Saban with Jimmy Johnson.

Did you see him do a ton of moving last year?

I think we'll see Nick make moves when they make sense given what he has, but Nick knows you have to be smart about drafting. When you're in a position to get a bargain, you have to take it. Wasn't that what Roth was all about? Didn't we all love him for that?

I'm not saying he will use even one pick in this supplemental draft. I'm saying I think Nick brings an intelligence about drafting that we have lacked for way too long.

 

[BlitPhinFan]

He won't do it. Having less picks in the REAL draft is less leverage for the 06 draft. If there's a player he really wants and he's already used TWO picks in the supplemental he won't have enough ammunition to move up and grab that player.

Move up? I am pretty certain that Saban will try to move down again for more picks. There aren't too many strong possitions in next years draft that we need to actually move up to get. Unless I am mistaken. I haven't looked closely at the prospects for next year.

CK or Nublar, could you break them down for us? To me our key needs are DT, CB, FS and possibly QB. Are there any that truely stand out right now that would go on the first day, besides QB(if needed)? NOTE: This is if we don't get our DT this year in the supplimental draft.

 

[ckparrothead]

He won't do it. Having less picks in the REAL draft is less leverage for the 06 draft. If there's a player he really wants and he's already used TWO picks in the supplemental he won't have enough ammunition to move up and grab that player.

Another thing to add to that is it is harder to evaluate what 2006 draft picks are really worth when we don't know the talent level of the 2006 draft or who will be in it, or even what selection order we have. Add that with the fact that it is tougher in general to get a good grip on a guy's overall talent level in a vaccuum, where you can't compare him side by side to a number of athletes available at his position and other positions, and really you should tread on the more conservative side when it comes to the supplemental draft.

Drafting the guy a year early doesn't make a difference. If he's worth a 3rd round pick now, you spend a 3rd round pick on him. If he's worth a 2nd right now, he's worth a 2nd in 2006 as well.

As a rule of thumb, when it comes to drafting a guy in the supplemental draft in a certain round, you should ask yourself "If I had the choice between the guy I drafted in this round in the 2005 draft, and the guy in the supplemental draft, which one would I take?"

If you would rather have the supplemental guy, you should take him.

 

[Jimmy James]

Another thing to add to that is it is harder to evaluate what 2006 draft picks are really worth when we don't know the talent level of the 2006 draft or who will be in it, or even what selection order we have. Add that with the fact that it is tougher in general to get a good grip on a guy's overall talent level in a vaccuum, where you can't compare him side by side to a number of athletes available at his position and other positions, and really you should tread on the more conservative side when it comes to the supplemental draft.

Drafting the guy a year early doesn't make a difference. If he's worth a 3rd round pick now, you spend a 3rd round pick on him. If he's worth a 2nd right now, he's worth a 2nd in 2006 as well.

As a rule of thumb, when it comes to drafting a guy in the supplemental draft in a certain round, you should ask yourself "If I had the choice between the guy I drafted in this round in the 2005 draft, and the guy in the supplemental draft, which one would I take?"

If you would rather have the supplemental guy, you should take him.

I agree with all of this. Nice post, man.

 

[ckparrothead]

Move up? I am pretty certain that Saban will try to move down again for more picks. There aren't too many strong possitions in next years draft that we need to actually move up to get. Unless I am mistaken. I haven't looked closely at the prospects for next year.

CK or Nublar, could you break them down for us? To me our key needs are DT, CB, FS and possibly QB. Are there any that truely stand out right now that would go on the first day, besides QB(if needed)? NOTE: This is if we don't get our DT this year in the supplimental draft.

I'm not sure anyone can break down the 2006 draft for you. We don't even know who will declare for it yet. Plus, we need to see their 2005 seasons before we get a good idea of what the lay of the land is. This time last year, Kyle Orton and Andrew Walter were lookin like first rounders if I remember right. Antajj Hawthorne was a DEFINITE first rounder, possibly best DT in the draft. You get the picture. Even the BLESTO rankings where they evaluate seniors in the spring heading into the college season about a year before the draft, those are notoriously off the mark.

 

[BlitPhinFan]

Another thing to add to that is it is harder to evaluate what 2006 draft picks are really worth when we don't know the talent level of the 2006 draft or who will be in it, or even what selection order we have. Add that with the fact that it is tougher in general to get a good grip on a guy's overall talent level in a vaccuum, where you can't compare him side by side to a number of athletes available at his position and other positions, and really you should tread on the more conservative side when it comes to the supplemental draft.

Drafting the guy a year early doesn't make a difference. If he's worth a 3rd round pick now, you spend a 3rd round pick on him. If he's worth a 2nd right now, he's worth a 2nd in 2006 as well.

As a rule of thumb, when it comes to drafting a guy in the supplemental draft in a certain round, you should ask yourself "If I had the choice between the guy I drafted in this round in the 2005 draft, and the guy in the supplemental draft, which one would I take?"

If you would rather have the supplemental guy, you should take him.

That makes sense. Thank you. But, I guess would you really toss away two picks in this supplemental draft? I know we are interrested in a DT now, but to also give one up for a WR now? When we are fairly solid there, would you pull the trigger?

 

[ckparrothead]

If you can, with all honesty, say to yourself "If I had to pick all over again between Channing Crowder and Manuel Wright, I would choose Manuel Wright" then it is a good idea to use a 3rd round pick on him. If you cannot honestly say that, then you have a problem. Maybe you feel like you got great value in Crowder, and he was taken one round too late because of issues that nobody else understands but you feel you do (this is a VERY dangerous line of thinking) then in that instance if you can't say you'd rather have Wright over Crowder, you should look again at the field of picks that were available at your pick in the 3rd, and ask, where would you rank Wright? Would you take him above everyone except Crowder?

If you are strict to that disciplined way of thinking, and extremely strict in your grading of the supplemental draft players, it shouldn't matter how many picks you end up giving up.

If we'd rather have Wright over Crowder, we give a 3rd for Wright. If we'd rather have Crosby than Alabi, we should give a 5th rounder for Crosby...or if we'd rather have him than Vickerson, we should give a 7th.

 

[PhinsOwnU]

ALRIGHT, lets say we go into the 2006 draft with FIVE picks. Say we finish 7-9 or 8-8, That leaves us picking in the 10-15 range. After the 05 season Saban clearly sees the NEED of picking a blue chip QB, but we won't be seeing one fall to the 10 spot because Cleveland, Tennessee, Tampa and Arizona are all picking in front of the Dolphins. If we didn't use TWO picks in the supplemental we possibly could have traded up ahead of one of those teams and landed our FRANCHISE Qb.

Some food for thought.

BOTTOM LINE. Saban won't use TWO picks in the supplemental draft.

 

[BlitPhinFan]

If you can, with all honesty, say to yourself "If I had to pick all over again between Channing Crowder and Manuel Wright, I would choose Manuel Wright" then it is a good idea to use a 3rd round pick on him. If you cannot honestly say that, then you have a problem. Maybe you feel like you got great value in Crowder, and he was taken one round too late because of issues that nobody else understands but you feel you do (this is a VERY dangerous line of thinking) then in that instance if you can't say you'd rather have Wright over Crowder, you should look again at the field of picks that were available at your pick in the 3rd, and ask, where would you rank Wright? Would you take him above everyone except Crowder?

If you are strict to that disciplined way of thinking, and extremely strict in your grading of the supplemental draft players, it shouldn't matter how many picks you end up giving up.

If we'd rather have Wright over Crowder, we give a 3rd for Wright. If we'd rather have Crosby than Alabi, we should give a 5th rounder for Crosby...or if we'd rather have him than Vickerson, we should give a 7th.

That makes good bit of sense out of the whole deal, thank you. With that... I say, in my opinion, we go for Wright in the 3rd and ignore the rest. I don't say so out of ability, I say so out of need. Do you foresee any better prospects at DT next year in the 3rd round that would be better? Then again I am one to be very much against giving up draft picks this year for next. I am torn at this point.

 

[Jimmy James]

ALRIGHT, lets say we go into the 2006 draft with FIVE picks. Say we finish 7-9 or 8-8, That leaves us picking in the 10-15 range. After the 05 season Saban clearly sees the NEED of picking a blue chip QB, but we won't be seeing one fall to the 10 spot because Cleveland, Tennessee, Tampa and Arizona are all picking in front of the Dolphins. If we didn't use TWO picks in the supplemental we possibly could have traded up ahead of one of those teams and landed our FRANCHISE Qb.

Some food for thought.

BOTTOM LINE. Saban won't use TWO picks in the supplemental draft.

If we're picking 10-15, that 3rd and either 5th or 7th rounder (to use the examples above) aren't going to get the Dolphins ahead of all those teams to pick a QB. That would likely take the 2007 first rounder.

I think everybody here would tell you given the players actually involved in this supplemental draft, it's somewhat unlikely Saban will even use one pick (somebody could outspend us on that DT). It would be extremely unlikely that he would use two picks given the fact pattern here. I think what perhaps we haven't been explicit enough about is that ck and I have been talking in the abstract.

 

[BlitPhinFan]

ALRIGHT, lets say we go into the 2006 draft with FIVE picks. Say we finish 7-9 or 8-8, That leaves us picking in the 10-15 range. After the 05 season Saban clearly sees the NEED of picking a blue chip QB, but we won't be seeing one fall to the 10 spot because Cleveland, Tennessee, Tampa and Arizona are all picking in front of the Dolphins. If we didn't use TWO picks in the supplemental we possibly could have traded up ahead of one of those teams and landed our FRANCHISE Qb.

Some food for thought.

BOTTOM LINE. Saban won't use TWO picks in the supplemental draft.

I for one hope you are right, as I think the same way. Damn this glass always being half empty instead of half full. :D

 

[BlitPhinFan]

If we're picking 10-15, that 3rd and either 5th or 7th rounder (to use the examples above) aren't going to get the Dolphins ahead of all those teams to pick a QB. That would likely take the 2007 first rounder.

I think everybody here would tell you given the players actually involved in this supplemental draft, it's somewhat unlikely Saban will even use one pick (somebody could outspend us on that DT). It would be extremely unlikely that he would use two picks given the fact pattern here. I think what perhaps we haven't been explicit enough about is that ck and I have been talking in the abstract.

Okay, that clarifies things a bit. I was asking for hard-nosed analysis when it really can't be given. Then I took the responses as what we will likely do. That was my fault and my fault alone. I guess my hatred of spending this year for the sake of next year got to me. So in essence I have somewhat the correct feeling on what will happen? I sure hope so, because aside from Wright, I don't want to give up anymore for next year. Heck, I am hessitant on spending a 3rd on Wright(even though we have a need there).

 

[PhinsOwnU]

If we're picking 10-15, that 3rd and either 5th or 7th rounder (to use the examples above) aren't going to get the Dolphins ahead of all those teams to pick a QB. That would likely take the 2007 first rounder.

I think everybody here would tell you given the players actually involved in this supplemental draft, it's somewhat unlikely Saban will even use one pick (somebody could outspend us on that DT). It would be extremely unlikely that he would use two picks given the fact pattern here. I think what perhaps we haven't been explicit enough about is that ck and I have been talking in the abstract.

To move UP from the 10 spot into the top 5 for a QB will cost more than TWO first rounders. I'm sure that a 3rd and 5th rounder would be useful. It all depends on the strength of next years QB crop and right now NOBODY knows who will be there. If Leinart, Jacobs, and Leak all have strong seasons next year it's gonna cost a HELLUVA alot to move up and draft them.

 

[Jimmy James]

To move UP from the 10 spot into the top 5 for a QB will cost more than TWO first rounders. I'm sure that a 3rd and 5th rounder would be useful. It all depends on the strength of next years QB crop and right now NOBODY knows who will be there. If Leinart, Jacobs, and Leak all have strong seasons next year it's gonna cost a HELLUVA alot to move up and draft them.

I hear what you're saying, but let's say that this DT kid falls to the 5th and is just an absolute steal (hypothetically). If Saban worries about things like this, BB up in NE doesn't, and the Patriots get a star DL who gives us nightmares for nothing, it would be a terrible thing.

I totally understand where you guys are coming from in worrying about trading future picks for present gains. It's just something the team has to be open to from time to time when it's the smart thing to do. The Supplemental Draft would be my favored alternative expenditure when there is value as ck has outlined. I think you get more with entry-level players than you ever can with veterans. It extends to veterans on a more limited basis, though. If this team could pair up Dwight Freeney with Jason Taylor under the cap because Freeney was hypothetically locked into a favorable contract he would honor, it would be well worth a future 2nd round pick to make it happen. You're not going to get a deal like that very often at all, but I think that extreme example makes the point.

The problem with the past regime (including RS even though I think he was following orders from higher than his office to do what he did) is that they were dumb about the future trades made in too many cases.

 

[BlitPhinFan]

I hear what you're saying, but let's say that this DT kid falls to the 5th and is just an absolute steal (hypothetically). If Saban worries about things like this, BB up in NE doesn't, and the Patriots get a star DL who gives us nightmares for nothing, it would be a terrible thing.

I totally understand where you guys are coming from in worrying about trading future picks for present gains. It's just something the team has to be open to from time to time when it's the smart thing to do. The Supplemental Draft would be my favored alternative expenditure when there is value as ck has outlined. I think you get more with entry-level players than you ever can with veterans. It extends to veterans on a more limited basis, though. If this team could pair up Dwight Freeney with Jason Taylor under the cap because Freeney was hypothetically locked into a favorable contract he would honor, it would be well worth a future 2nd round pick to make it happen. You're not going to get a deal like that very often at all, but I think that extreme example makes the point.

The problem with the past regime (including RS even though I think he was following orders from higher than his office to do what he did) is that they were dumb about the future trades made in too many cases.

Good points, now I have to ask the question... Is Wright worth the 3rd in your mind? I am not trying for a debate here, I just want to see where the better "evaluators" on this site stand. I know it's not fair to ask, but I just want an honest oppinion.