Miami Dolphins Have the 3rd-Most Imbalanced Offense in the League

[Kencoboy]

Keep in mind the more you rush the ball the more the defense is off the field and resting. It's all about clock control. I believe that's why it's not as important to have rushing success; rather just to call the play and run the ball. We are not going anywhere running the ball 1/3 of the time and if you don't believe that just watch the next game.

 

[nyashfan]

Rushing attempts must be related to more rushing success. How can you have more rushing attempts than your opponent, especially in the 1st half, without having success?

Shouright - can you do another calculation? How correlated is the differential between the number of 1st downs obtained by rushing relative to your opponent, split by halves and for the entire game?

What the data indicate, however, is that it's the difference in rushing attempts, per se, that's strongly correlated with winning, not the difference in rushing success.

 

[spiketex]

The average team in the NFL runs the ball on 41.25% of its offensive plays.

The standard deviation from that average is 5.45%.

The Miami Dolphins run the ball on 33.82% of their offensive plays, which is 1.36 standard deviations below the mean, and which places it in the 8.7th percentile in the league, third worst in the league, behind only the Atlanta Falcons (30.35%) and the Cleveland Browns (31.29%).

One might think that teams that run the ball more poorly also run the ball less, and that is supported somewhat by the 0.41 correlation between yards per carry and the percentage of offensive plays accounted for by runs. However, the Dolphins' 4.1 yards per carry is the same as the league average, which suggests the Dolphins are not running the ball less because they're significantly less effective than the average team running the ball.

One might also think that teams that pass the ball more effectively run the ball less, but that isn't supported by the 0.14 correlation between net yards per pass attempt and the percentage of offensive plays accounted for by runs.

The correlation between winning percentage and offensive rushing attempts is 0.55, which is moderately strong, though the difference in rushing attempts for and against is correlated with winning percentage at 0.71, which is very strong.

In my opinion the Dolphins' offense hasn't featured the running game this year enough to: 1) have a rushing attempts differential that is associated with winning, or 2) optimally support the development of Ryan Tannehill.

Shouright - your logic is further enhanced when you consider that the other two teams with worse percentages, Atlanta - have had difficulty replacing Steven Jackson for an extended period through injury. Cleveland have also had RB issues after trading Trent Richardson for a 1st round draft pick and subsequent injury to Willis McGahee. So both of those teams didn't have the RBs they planned for and a higher pass percentage is predictable. In contrast our RBs have been healthy and active up until Daniel Thomas' unfortunate season ending injury last week.

 

[Shouright]

Rushing attempts must be related to more rushing success. How can you have more rushing attempts than your opponent, especially in the 1st half, without having success?

Easily: I can run the ball 10 times for 20 yards, and you can run the ball 5 times for 30 yards.

Shouright - can you do another calculation? How correlated is the differential between the number of 1st downs obtained by rushing relative to your opponent, split by halves and for the entire game?

Have to wait until I have access to that data later on today. Be happy to get it at that point. :up:

 

[nyashfan]

You got me on the first part. I guess I should've added context about the team caring about winning the game! Obviously any team can choose to run the ball on every single play...

Shouright - glad that you have the data and interest to try my suggestion. Another variant that might be interesting is looking at the teams' differential between their percentage of 1st downs obtained by rushing (as compared with passing or penalty).

Easily: I can run the ball 10 times for 20 yards, and you can run the ball 5 times for 30 yards.

Have to wait until I have access to that data later on today. Be happy to get it at that point. :up:

 

[russianbear]

Also for people to keep in mind when understanding rushing ATTEMPTS is strongly correlated with winning. If a team is going to have a high number of rushing attempts in a game, there is a good chance there are succeeding at running the ball. No team is going to rush the ball 25-30 times if there are not having any success with it. THAT is why rushing ATTEMPTS can be correlated with winning, and also why we are NOT rushing the ball as often as we should...lack of success....

 

[Shouright]

Also for people to keep in mind when understanding rushing ATTEMPTS is strongly correlated with winning. If a team is going to have a high number of rushing attempts in a game, there is a good chance there are succeeding at running the ball. No team is going to rush the ball 25-30 times if there are not having any success with it. THAT is why rushing ATTEMPTS can be correlated with winning, and also why we are NOT rushing the ball as often as we should...lack of success....

Then why is rushing success correlated so much more weakly with winning than rushing attempts?

Also, as I've said, the Dolphins rushing success, as measured by yards per carry, is no worse than the league average, so it's hard to present an objective case that the Dolphins are rushing the ball less because they're unsuccessful at it. Why not rush the ball just as much as the teams that are just as successful? If you're successful at the average level in the league, then why wouldn't you also rush the ball at least as much as the average team in the league?

 

[roy_miami]

Who are the first and second worst?

 

[Shouright]

Shouright - can you do another calculation? How correlated is the differential between the number of 1st downs obtained by rushing relative to your opponent, split by halves and for the entire game?

1st downs by rushing differential is correlated with wins at 0.62.

Shouright - glad that you have the data and interest to try my suggestion. Another variant that might be interesting is looking at the teams' differential between their percentage of 1st downs obtained by rushing (as compared with passing or penalty).

Don't have this data, but I can tell you that the correlation between wins and the 1st downs by passing differential is 0.30, and the one for differential for 1st downs obtained by penalty is 0.06.

---------- Post added at 04:33 PM ---------- Previous post was at 04:32 PM ----------

Who are the first and second worst?

As stated in the OP, Atlanta and Cleveland.

 

[nyashfan]

Interesting...

So rushing attempt differential has a 0.71 correlation with winning percentage. And rushing 1st downs differential has a 0.62 correlation with winning percentage. I think it is safe to conclude that there is a very high correlation between rushing attempts differential and rushing 1st downs differential. So rushing attempts is a proxy for rushing success in that it is predicated on the ability to rush for 1st downs. Yardage is less important than 1st downs as 1st downs allow for controlling the clock, keeping the defense off the field, leading to fewer offensive turnovers, etc.

1st downs by rushing differential is correlated with wins at 0.62.

Don't have this data, but I can tell you that the correlation between wins and the 1st downs by passing differential is 0.30, and the one for differential for 1st downs obtained by penalty is 0.06.

---------- Post added at 04:33 PM ---------- Previous post was at 04:32 PM ----------

As stated in the OP, Atlanta and Cleveland.

 

[Third Eye]

Anyone who says they don't care about the lack of balance, specifically lack of a running game, and the fact that they like the passing offense we have now, is delusional.

Games are closed out in the 4th quarter by running the ball. If Miami could run the ball effectively, they would have at least three more wins right now. The running game becomes even more important in December cold weather games and playoff games. Teams that are built to win can run the ball when the opponent knows you will run.

This team is flawed offensively and is built like a cardboard box, not an iron safe.

 

[Shouright]

Interesting...

So rushing attempt differential has a 0.71 correlation with winning percentage. And rushing 1st downs differential has a 0.62 correlation with winning percentage. I think it is safe to conclude that there is a very high correlation between rushing attempts differential and rushing 1st downs differential. So rushing attempts is a proxy for rushing success in that it is predicated on the ability to rush for 1st downs. Yardage is less important than 1st downs as 1st downs allow for controlling the clock, keeping the defense off the field, leading to fewer offensive turnovers, etc.

Indeed. The correlation between rushing first downs differential and rushing attempts differential is .90.

However, the partial correlations between winning percentage and both rushing first downs differential and rushing attempts differential drop to a level of meaninglessness when one or the other of the latter two variables is controlled for, meaning that we likely have a circular sort of relationship between them as they relate to winning percentage.

One has to attempt a rush, however, before one can get a first down on one, which likely puts rushing attempts in a causal position here.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Partial_correlation

 

[trojanma]

Shou,

Do you have our rushing average per down?
Though we have a good ypc I am curious if that is as impressive when you break things down by down.

 

[MiamiMuss]

Oddly enough 3 of the most notorious Gunslinging teams in GB Denver and NE are top 10 in rushing attempts.A combined 22-10 record with Aaron Rodgers being out 4 weeks.

 

[Kencoboy]

Oddly enough 3 of the most notorious Gunslinging teams in GB Denver and NE are top 10 in rushing attempts.A combined 22-10 record with Aaron Rodgers being out 4 weeks.

Defenses have been built in recent times to stop the pass as the NFL changed its rules to favor it. Now I believe its easier to attack those defenses thru the run (if you have the personnel) and guess what the top offenses in the league are doing. Just my observation.