Miami Dolphins Have the 3rd-Most Imbalanced Offense in the League

[nyashfan]

Shouright - you must have a PhD in statistics! Now we are talking about correlations pertaining to conditional bivariate normal distributions...

Bottom line is that rushing attempts are leading to 1st downs by rushing. It's not just a matter of compiling a bunch of rushing attempts. There is a subtle causal relationship in which rushing attempts lead to first downs which leads to controlling the clock, fewer offensive turnovers, better down and distance situations, and so forth. And as someone else said how important it is to amass rushing 1st downs/attempts in the 4th quarter in order to close out games.

Indeed. The correlation between rushing first downs differential and rushing attempts differential is .90.

However, the partial correlations between winning percentage and both rushing first downs differential and rushing attempts differential drop to a level of meaninglessness when one or the other of the latter two variables is controlled for, meaning that we likely have a circular sort of relationship between them as they relate to winning percentage.

One has to attempt a rush, however, before one can get a first down on one, which likely puts rushing attempts in a causal position here.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Partial_correlation

 

[royalshank]

You are major troll. You provided 0 evidence. I gave you 2 superbowls in which teams passed much more than ran, all 4 teams, and you still keep going and gave me negative rep. You are a jackass.

He's giving you applied statistics evidence. You gave him a sample size of n=2. Wow. Just wow.

 

[Shouright]

Shouright - you must have a PhD in statistics! Now we are talking about correlations pertaining to conditional bivariate normal distributions...

Actually I'm just a beer-drinking teddy bear.

Bottom line is that rushing attempts are leading to 1st downs by rushing. It's not just a matter of compiling a bunch of rushing attempts. There is a subtle causal relationship in which rushing attempts lead to first downs which leads to controlling the clock, fewer offensive turnovers, better down and distance situations, and so forth. And as someone else said how important it is to amass rushing 1st downs/attempts in the 4th quarter in order to close out games.

Precisely. There has to be a path analysis in there somewhere. And we know already that the relationship between rushing attempts differential and winning percentage is mediated by rushing first downs differential, thanks to what you conjured up. :up:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Path_analysis_(statistics)

 

[Shouright]

Defenses have been built in recent times to stop the pass as the NFL changed its rules to favor it. Now I believe its easier to attack those defenses thru the run (if you have the personnel) and guess what the top offenses in the league are doing. Just my observation.

Even some of the spread offense passing concepts are built around spreading the defense to open up running lanes.

Take a look at what Ohio State is doing right now with Carlos Hyde, in Urban Meyer's offense.

 

[Shouright]

Shou,

Do you have our rushing average per down?
Though we have a good ypc I am curious if that is as impressive when you break things down by down.

Scoured the web and couldn't find that, unfortunately. Would be good to know if we could.

 

[nyashfan]

Shouright - one more thought came to mind. How negatively correlated are rushing attempts with number of sacks and sacks per number of pass attempts (either for the team or as a differential relative to the opponent)?

Here's a hypothetical situation. It's the Dolphins' opening drive of the game. The Dolphins have a 1st and 10 from their own 40 yard line. Tannehill drops back to pass and is sacked for an 8 yard loss. So now it's 2nd and 18 from the Dolphins' 32 yard line. To me this scenario is the crux of the entire discussion.

Should the Dolphins compile two rushing attempts, likely resulting in a 4th down punt with a chance to make the opponent start deep in their own territory? This strategy may allow the Dolphins to gain favorable field position for their next drive.

Should the Dolphins pass on 2nd and 18, thereby incurring more risk in an attempt to convert the 1st down?

What would be the perception of Philbin if he ran it twice, thereby adopting a strategy of winning the field position battle? I would expect him to be crucified. There would be numerous posts about how he needs to "grow a pair", about how you need to play aggressively in order to win, about how he had no faith in his starting QB, etc. With the score 0-0 and the field position neither favorable nor unfavorable it is unclear what to do.

The argument reverts to the question as to whether the run/pass imbalance is causal or is it dictated by circumstances. I would argue that it is dictated by circumstances. It's hard to continue running the ball when, by virtue of being the most sacked team in the league, the down and distance situations make this strategy eventually untenable.

To me it all comes down to the inability of the OL to consistently keep the offense out of unmanageable down and distance situations.

Actually I'm just a beer-drinking teddy bear.

Precisely. There has to be a path analysis in there somewhere. And we know already that the relationship between rushing attempts differential and winning percentage is mediated by rushing first downs differential, thanks to what you conjured up. :up:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Path_analysis_(statistics)

 

[where's th'fish]

Just running the ball isn't going to help. You need to run the ball well, which is more important than running often. Pseudo statistical analysis aside, Football Outsiders stats show the Miami OL run blocking being at or below average at every category and both our RBs ranking 20-25. We suck at running the ball.

 

[Shouright]

Just running the ball isn't going to help. You need to run the ball well, which is more important than running often. Pseudo statistical analysis aside, Football Outsiders stats show the Miami OL run blocking being at or below average at every category and both our RBs ranking 20-25. We suck at running the ball.

Running the ball well isn't more important than running the ball often, and the team averages no fewer yards per carry than the average team in the league.

 

[j-off-her-doll]

Even some of the spread offense passing concepts are built around spreading the defense to open up running lanes.

Take a look at what Ohio State is doing right now with Carlos Hyde, in Urban Meyer's offense.

Or look at what Philly is doing.

The ability to run the ball consistently isn't based on coincidence. The teams that do it well emphasize it. If you do it well, you can do it more, and you believe in it even when it's not initially working well. Seattle and San Fran have overcome significant injuries on offense (Seattle missing much of its O-line and San Fran missing two of their top 3 WR's) with QB's in their 2nd year, because they emphasize the run game and D.

 

[Shouright]

Shouright - one more thought came to mind. How negatively correlated are rushing attempts with number of sacks and sacks per number of pass attempts (either for the team or as a differential relative to the opponent)?

Here's a hypothetical situation. It's the Dolphins' opening drive of the game. The Dolphins have a 1st and 10 from their own 40 yard line. Tannehill drops back to pass and is sacked for an 8 yard loss. So now it's 2nd and 18 from the Dolphins' 32 yard line. To me this scenario is the crux of the entire discussion.

Should the Dolphins compile two rushing attempts, likely resulting in a 4th down punt with a chance to make the opponent start deep in their own territory? This strategy may allow the Dolphins to gain favorable field position for their next drive.

Should the Dolphins pass on 2nd and 18, thereby incurring more risk in an attempt to convert the 1st down?

What would be the perception of Philbin if he ran it twice, thereby adopting a strategy of winning the field position battle? I would except him to be crucified. There would be numerous posts about how he needs to "grow a pair", about how you need to play aggressively in order to win, about how he had no faith in his starting QB, etc. With the score 0-0 and the field position neither favorable nor unfavorable it is unclear what to do.

The argument reverts to the question as to whether the run/pass imbalance is causal or is it dictated by circumstances. I would argue that it is dictated by circumstances. It's hard to continue running the ball when, by virtue of being the most sacked team in the league, the down and distance situations make this strategy eventually untenable.

To me it all comes down to the inability of the OL to consistently keep the offense out of unmanageable down and distance situations.

You may want to factor the following data into your thinking:

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/12/run-pass-imbalance-on-2nd-and-3rd-downs.html

 

[SCLSU Mud Dogs]

I think it's common football knowledge that teams who are more balanced (don't have to be completely balanced) tend to have more efficient offenses.

It's also common knowledge around these parts that Miami gets into many poor situations because of the ineptitude of the running game, like 2nd/3rd and longs.

 

[Shouright]

I think it's common football knowledge that teams who are more balanced (don't have to be completely balanced) tend to have more efficient offenses.

That isn't the point of the thread, however. The point of the thread is to point out how imbalanced the Dolphins are.

It's also common knowledge around these parts that Miami gets into many poor situations because of the ineptitude of the running game, like 2nd/3rd and longs.

Well then perhaps "these parts" need an infusion of "uncommon" knowledge, because the Dolphins' running game isn't any worse than that of the average team in the league in terms of yards per carry.

 

[hoops]

I think it's common football knowledge that teams who are more balanced (don't have to be completely balanced) tend to have more efficient offenses.

It's also common knowledge around these parts that Miami gets into many poor situations because of the ineptitude of the running game, like 2nd/3rd and longs.

it should be...

 

[Shouright]

it should be...

Only if you want to be wrong. :)

 

[Geforce]

Shou,

Do you have our rushing average per down?
Though we have a good ypc I am curious if that is as impressive when you break things down by down.

According to ESPN, the Dolphins have run the ball 138 times on first down for an average of 3.8 yards per carry. 73 times on 2nd down for an average of 4.2 yards per carry. 18 times on 3rd down for an average of 4.7 yards per carry and twice on 4th down for an average of 7.5 yards per carry.
http://espn.go.com/nfl/team/splits/_/name/mia/type/rushing/miami-dolphins