Miami Dolphins Have the 3rd-Most Imbalanced Offense in the League

[hoops]

According to ESPN, the Dolphins have run the ball 138 times on first down for an average of 3.8 yards per carry. 73 times on 2nd down for an average of 4.2 yards per carry. 18 times on 3rd down for an average of 4.7 yards per carry and twice on 4th down for an average of 7.5 yards per carry.
http://espn.go.com/nfl/team/splits/_/name/mia/type/rushing/miami-dolphins

yeah but you can't just put those numbers in a vacuum and say that you expect this team to generate those numbers no matter what...i would be more interested in knowing the percentage of runs on those downs that went for increments like 4 yards or more 2 yards or more zero yards 2 yard losses or more etc...

also broken down by individual game matchup...

 

[Shouright]

yeah but you can't just put those numbers in a vacuum and say that you expect this team to generate those numbers no matter what...i would be more interested in knowing the percentage of runs on those downs that went for increments like 4 yards or more 2 yards or more zero yards 2 yard losses or more etc...

Actually that would be what you would expect the team to do no matter what (i.e., regardless of other factors), because that's what it does on average. The team is most likely to run the ball for yardage around those numbers, rather than being most likely to run the ball for yardage that's significantly different.

Moreover, the team's success rate in running the ball is 41.1%, which is currently 12th in the league.

 

[hoops]

it depends on the defense you face and how they play you as to how much success you should or can expect to have running the ball...some of miamis opponents have not been good run d's so yeah i'd expect to see it more and us use it more but against carolina and 8 man fronts i would expect those diminishing returns to continue to show...

i get that you want to be able to run the ball more and have balance but i'm also not gonna endorse beating a dead drum just for the sake of getting rushing attempts...

and with carolina given what they were showing i think we had to pass the ball to move the ball and it's exactly how we did...sherman has to adjust to what the opposition is showing him while also accounting for the strengths and weaknesses of his personnel and scheme fits in some cases

 

[trojanma]

According to ESPN, the Dolphins have run the ball 138 times on first down for an average of 3.8 yards per carry. 73 times on 2nd down for an average of 4.2 yards per carry. 18 times on 3rd down for an average of 4.7 yards per carry and twice on 4th down for an average of 7.5 yards per carry.
http://espn.go.com/nfl/team/splits/_/name/mia/type/rushing/miami-dolphins

It is certainly higher than people think by the eyeball test.
I definitely think that these numbers are skewed by high outliers. (i.e. the standard deviation) on these down.

Still you cannot argue with the massive imbalance of attempts per downs.
18 runs on third down. If this team needs a first down clearly Sherman doesn't think he is getting it on the ground.
This leads to the predictability narrative.

So the next question for the stats junkies how do we compare in rush/pass percentages per down.
I would imagine we would run a lot less than most of the NFL on 3rd down.

 

[JTC111]

Threads like this are why I come here. I learn so much about football that I never knew before.
For instance, I've learned that SuperBowl caliber teams don't need a good running game, a good offensive line, positive locker room leadership, or a GM who can produce good drafts and make trades for people who fit the team's plans.
...and I thought I knew this game.

 

[Shouright]

Still you cannot argue with the massive imbalance of attempts per downs.
18 runs on third down. If this team needs a first down clearly Sherman doesn't think he is getting it on the ground.
This leads to the predictability narrative.

Especially when you consider this:

For 3rd downs we see the opposite result. Runs are more lucrative in nearly all cases by about 0.2 points per play. This is big, really big. Think of it this way: An offense can expect to improve its net point advantage over an opponent by 0.2 points simply by choosing a certain type of play...a single play. This essentially measures the value of a play before we learn the actual result, and only measures the play choice itself. According to these numbers offenses should run more often on 3rd down. This is roughly consistent with my initial look at 3rd down playcalling over a year ago.

Note again the results for 10 yards to go. Although there is no discrepancy in the proportion of passes vs. runs, the advantage for running disappears, and there is a slight advantage for passing. This could be due to the 'alternation' effect that I mentioned for 2nd and 10, or it could be due to some other cause.

The other thing that stands out to me is the very large EPA for runs on 3rd and very long. The bulk of the advantage from running in this situation comes in the 20 to 40-yard line region of opponent territory. I think this result suggests most teams are better off playing it safe, running for better field goal range rather than passing and risking a sack, which might knock an offense out of FG range, or an interception, which would be even more costly.

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/12/run-pass-imbalance-on-2nd-and-3rd-downs.html

 

[Geforce]

I think it's common football knowledge that teams who are more balanced (don't have to be completely balanced) tend to have more efficient offenses.

It's also common knowledge around these parts that Miami gets into many poor situations because of the ineptitude of the running game, like 2nd/3rd and longs.

I think this is something that New Orleans' head coach Sean Payton talked about when ask about Drew Brees' 2012 season.
http://www.nola.com/saints/index.ssf/2013/03/new_orleans_saints_coach_sean_226.html

"The first thing that became apparent, and I'm alluding to what I said earlier, you try to evaluate the type of job the quarterback has," Payton said this week. "His two greatest allies are a good defense, one that can turn the ball over, and a decent or good running game. And if you went back, '11 we won, '10 we won, '09 we won 16, '06 we won. In those four seasons, we had balance and we ran the football.

"In '09, we were sixth in the league in rushing during our Super Bowl season. You wouldn't maybe necessarily guess that, but the point being is the ability to play defense and run the football are two great allies for good quarterback play. When you tell me a team is last in the league in defense and last in the running game, I'm telling you the quarterback's job description is entirely different.

"I'm telling you he's having to play and press and try to do certain things that his counterpart may not have to do based on the way that team is running the ball or playing defense. That's the first thing that I saw. You get one-dimensional, you find yourself in these games where you're not controlling the game."

and

"I'd say No. 1, just opportunities if that makes sense," Payton said. "I thought Week 5 or 6 all of a sudden Ivory and Ingram got going and it was against (San Diego and Tampa). ... Just attempts. I think that it's easy to get into the mind-set that we throw it well, let's continue to. There's a whole other element in football, and that is when you want it to you're controlling the game. If you're not doing that, it's harder to do."

 

[SCLSU Mud Dogs]

I'm open to any objective data that support that perspective.

Do you have any, or are you asking people to trust your subjective impressions alone, even though they're controverted by the objective data?

Are you trying to say this team can run the ball? My God. Take this man's keyboard away.

 

[Shouright]

Are you trying to say this team can run the ball? My God. Take this man's keyboard away.

As always, I'm open to any objective data in support of anyone's belief about anything. :up: