Was having a discussion last night with Roy_maimi and decided to create a thread dedicated to this topic. So before I get started, thx ROY
In the last twenty years 46.12% of all the NFL regular season games were decided by 7 or less points. So the key to being successful is being better than average in these close game situations. Usually the playoff teams have a winning record in these close games and non-playoff teams struggle to close out games. So here is my analysis of those close games under Philbin -Tannehill since 2012
In the 39 games we have had 10 blowout losses (lose by more than 7) and 10 blowout wins (win by more than 7) and 19 games decided by 7 or fewer points. One of those 19 games was a seven point win by Patriots where they ran out the clock and we never really had a chance to win. So I’ll move that over into the blowout loss column. That leaves 18 of 39 (46.15% right at league average) games where the game was up for grabs at the end. Our record in those 18 games is 9-9. Here is a breakdown of those 18 games.
In those 18 games 9 times we have had the ball with the lead and less than 4 minutes to play. The classic 4 minute drive situation. Offense needs 1 to 3 first downs to seal the game. The offense has failed every single time (0 for 9). You actually have to go all the back to the last game of the 2008 season against Jets to see us actually pull off a 4 minute drive. And even in that game we had to punt with 28 seconds remaining. Just by co-incidence that is the last time we have made the playoffs. That is the equivalent of a relief pitcher coming in and giving up a home run every time or a golfer playing a hole perfectly and then missing the 4 foot putt every time. It is pretty much choking in a pressure situation. I’m sick of it. In those 9 situations where gave the ball back and expected the defense to win the game we are 4-5.
Now this isn't a bash the offense thread for not doing their job. In the other 9 games we have been behind and needed the offense to produce a game winning drive. The offense has produced the game winning drive 4 times, failed 4 times and tied the game to send it to OT in the 9[SUP]th[/SUP]. So 4.5 of 9 were successful. I’ll give the other .5 to the defense for the safety in OT against Cincinnati. So of the 9 close game wins the Offense accounts for 4.5 and Defense accounts for 4.5. Good balance but not good enough. It should also be noted that on the 4 game winning drive games only 1 was last second. So 3 more times the Defense had to hold at the end of game to preserve the game winning drive. That really makes them 7 of 12 in those situations.
So what is the solution?
Reduce the number of games turned over to the defense. Offense gets 4 of these chances a year on average. If they just convert one of them that is one more win. Then this leaves the defense with only 3 games to defend. They are around 58% in those situations so that would equate to being successful 2 of 3 times. Just simply closing out one game on offense can have a big impact on season win total. We have had one this year so far and are due for another this week against S.D.
Any clues why we are so pitiful in running the 4:00 minute drive?
In the last twenty years 46.12% of all the NFL regular season games were decided by 7 or less points. So the key to being successful is being better than average in these close game situations. Usually the playoff teams have a winning record in these close games and non-playoff teams struggle to close out games. So here is my analysis of those close games under Philbin -Tannehill since 2012
In the 39 games we have had 10 blowout losses (lose by more than 7) and 10 blowout wins (win by more than 7) and 19 games decided by 7 or fewer points. One of those 19 games was a seven point win by Patriots where they ran out the clock and we never really had a chance to win. So I’ll move that over into the blowout loss column. That leaves 18 of 39 (46.15% right at league average) games where the game was up for grabs at the end. Our record in those 18 games is 9-9. Here is a breakdown of those 18 games.
In those 18 games 9 times we have had the ball with the lead and less than 4 minutes to play. The classic 4 minute drive situation. Offense needs 1 to 3 first downs to seal the game. The offense has failed every single time (0 for 9). You actually have to go all the back to the last game of the 2008 season against Jets to see us actually pull off a 4 minute drive. And even in that game we had to punt with 28 seconds remaining. Just by co-incidence that is the last time we have made the playoffs. That is the equivalent of a relief pitcher coming in and giving up a home run every time or a golfer playing a hole perfectly and then missing the 4 foot putt every time. It is pretty much choking in a pressure situation. I’m sick of it. In those 9 situations where gave the ball back and expected the defense to win the game we are 4-5.
Now this isn't a bash the offense thread for not doing their job. In the other 9 games we have been behind and needed the offense to produce a game winning drive. The offense has produced the game winning drive 4 times, failed 4 times and tied the game to send it to OT in the 9[SUP]th[/SUP]. So 4.5 of 9 were successful. I’ll give the other .5 to the defense for the safety in OT against Cincinnati. So of the 9 close game wins the Offense accounts for 4.5 and Defense accounts for 4.5. Good balance but not good enough. It should also be noted that on the 4 game winning drive games only 1 was last second. So 3 more times the Defense had to hold at the end of game to preserve the game winning drive. That really makes them 7 of 12 in those situations.
So what is the solution?
Reduce the number of games turned over to the defense. Offense gets 4 of these chances a year on average. If they just convert one of them that is one more win. Then this leaves the defense with only 3 games to defend. They are around 58% in those situations so that would equate to being successful 2 of 3 times. Just simply closing out one game on offense can have a big impact on season win total. We have had one this year so far and are due for another this week against S.D.
Any clues why we are so pitiful in running the 4:00 minute drive?
