Mike Gesicki among tight ends working at 'TE University'

[Feverdream]

This seems very much in line.
I could see it landing 67M to 70M, 5 years, 42M to 45M guaranteed

If he puts up 70 catches and 9 TDs, that's about what he'll ask for.

I don't think those stats are a stretch either. Over the last couple of years, teams double covered him and he averaged 52 catches and 5.5 TDs over those two years, and this year... Fuller and Waddle will give him vastly more room to work, and he's already one of the best red zone targets in the league- he is too big and his hands are too good to stop. We saw that on a couple of his noted receptions last year, like the TD he caught while being triple-covered.

The only way I see this going against him is if he's injured this year-- which he rarely is.

 

[KingHydra]

I certainly wouldn't say Gisecki can't block, rather he isn't a great blocker. He is constantly working to improve as a blocker.

 

[DOLFAN_51]

I heard about this and wondered if any of our TEs were able to take part in it. I’m glad that they’re doing this. It’s definitely a great idea. I’m glad that he’s participating.

 

[ThePeopleShow13]

Hmmmmm….those that defended MG on this forum includes a very small group. Your post present just like the 100s calling the guy a Giraffe.

So tell me…how many yards after the contact did Parker? Williams? Grant? Smthye and all the rest have since that’s the basis of your argument? BTW this came when all those guys went down and teams TRIPLED teamed him and he STILL scored(See KC TD)

How many yards? TDs? Did those guys have again?

First and foremost, we added Fuller in FA, Waddle with the 6th overall pick, Long with the 81st pick and we get Wilson and Hurns back. Our skill positions have been significantly upgraded since 2020.

The question is where does Gesicki, who is primarily a flex/big slot TE, fit into our offense with our deep WR room? He has good hands. He has made great catches. However, when we run 3 WR sets with Parker, Fuller, Waddle, Williams, etc. who is playing the in-line TE? History suggests that it will either be Long, Shaheen or Smythe over Gesicki.

I like Gesicki, but $12M+ for a guy who COULD (and probably will) see his numbers and usage drop in 2021 is kind of crazy. Given the fact that we drafted Long in the 3rd round this year I see no reason to not let Gesicki play out his rookie contract before we decide what to do. The only situation in which the team loses out is if he explodes to an All-Pro level and we desperately want to sign him. Otherwise we have his replacement and get a (more than likely) 3rd round compensation pick if he leaves.

 

[Feverdream]

First and foremost, we added Fuller in FA, Waddle with the 6th overall pick, Long with the 81st pick and we get Wilson and Hurns back. Our skill positions have been significantly upgraded since 2020.

The question is where does Gesicki, who is primarily a flex/big slot TE, fit into our offense with our deep WR room? He has good hands. He has made great catches. However, when we run 3 WR sets with Parker, Fuller, Waddle, Williams, etc. who is playing the in-line TE? History suggests that it will either be Long, Shaheen or Smythe over Gesicki.

I like Gesicki, but $12M+ for a guy who COULD (and probably will) see his numbers and usage drop in 2021 is kind of crazy. Given the fact that we drafted Long in the 3rd round this year I see no reason to not let Gesicki play out his rookie contract before we decide what to do. The only situation in which the team loses out is if he explodes to an All-Pro level and we desperately want to sign him. Otherwise we have his replacement and get a (more than likely) 3rd round compensation pick if he leaves.

Gesicki will get MORE targets this year, not less. He'll run the same number of routes, but be targeted more because he'll be very open this year.

We'll run the same formations we ran last year. We are just changing Smythe to Long, and Bowden to Waddle.

Gesicki wasn't the in-line TE last year, he won't be this year. Long is taking Smythe's role. Gesicki won't even be asked to block.

 

[ThePeopleShow13]

If he puts up 70 catches and 9 TDs, that's about what he'll ask for.

I don't think those stats are a stretch either. Over the last couple of years, teams double covered him and he averaged 52 catches and 5.5 TDs over those two years, and this year... Fuller and Waddle will give him vastly more room to work, and he's already one of the best red zone targets in the league- he is too big and his hands are too good to stop. We saw that on a couple of his noted receptions last year, like the TD he caught while being triple-covered.

The only way I see this going against him is if he's injured this year-- which he rarely is.

I alluded to this, in another post, but what leads you to believe he will receive more targets in 2021? He was targeted 89 times in 2019 and caught 51 passes. He was targeted 85 times in 2020 and caught 53 passes. Yes, he should have more room to work in 2021. However, with Parker, Fuller, Waddle, Williams, Wilson, Long, Shaheen, Smythe (the list goes on) being available this season I just don’t see his targets going up.

I know it doesn’t mean much in June, but multiple fantasy football sites I follow already having him listed as the biggest bust to avoid drafting at TE. Not because he is a bad player (he’s not). It’s more that it’s unclear how a TE that’s primarily a big slot WR is going to fit in with our abundance of offensive weapons. People want to compare him to guys like Kittle or Kelce, but he really doesn’t line up in-line as often as they do (Kelce was on the field for 82% of KCs snaps vs 58% for Gesicki in 2020) so we use more of a TE rotation than other teams.

 

[Feverdream]

I alluded to this, in another post, but what leads you to believe he will receive more targets in 2021? He was targeted 89 times in 2019 and caught 51 passes. He was targeted 85 times in 2020 and caught 53 passes. Yes, he should have more room to work in 2021. However, with Parker, Fuller, Waddle, Williams, Wilson, Long, Shaheen, Smythe (the list goes on) being available this season I just don’t see his targets going up.

I know it doesn’t mean much in June, but multiple fantasy football sites I follow already having him listed as the biggest bust to avoid drafting at TE. Not because he is a bad player (he’s not). It’s more that it’s unclear how a TE that’s primarily a big slot WR is going to fit in with our abundance of offensive weapons. People want to compare him to guys like Kittle or Kelce, but he really doesn’t line up in-line as often as they do (Kelce was on the field for 82% of KCs snaps vs 58% for Gesicki in 2020) so we use more of a TE rotation than other teams.

Again... we'll be running the same offense. He'll get the same snap #... but this year, he'll be wide open because he won't be double covered. One poor safety, heh! poor bastard.

 

[AdamD13]

It is possible Miami uses the tag on Gesicki next year if he has a big year. The average salary of the top 5 TE salaries this year is $12.86.

 

[Feverdream]

It is possible Miami uses the tag on Gesicki next year if he has a big year. The average salary of the top 5 TE salaries this year is $12.86.

Is also possible... but that just raises their overall cost when he does sign. It's a band-aid, something we'd only do once... and guys who are tagged, CAN hold out... and do sometimes. ...and that tag is about what the Patriots pays each of their two.

 

[DPhinz_DPhinz]

We absolutely have to sign this guy because we may never see another TE with a single season like Gesicki had in 2020...

NEVER!!!

 

[Feverdream]

Hunter Henry: 12.5M/year Patriots
60 reception, 613 yards, 4TDs

Jonnu Smith: 12.5/year Patriots
41 receptions, 448 yards, 8 TDs

Both had less yards, they split everything else... he is signing in a fat cap year, they signed when no one had money. He'll get more; it's the market.

 

[ThePeopleShow13]

Again... we'll be running the same offense. He'll get the same snap #... but this year, he'll be wide open because he won't be double covered. One poor safety, heh! poor bastard.

I mean in 2020 we had 2 WR (Parker/Williams), a ST player (Grant) and practice squad jags at WR week 1. It only got worse with injuries. The question is more if Gesicki was used as a flex/big slot by design or out of necessity in certain situations. I just don’t see his targets going up with the addition of Fuller, Waddle and Long plus having Wilson and Williams back. Particularly if we want to get the two guys making $10M+ and the 6th overall draft pick on the field at the same time. Gesicki, Fuller, Williams, and Wilson (I believe) are all FA next year so at least one or two of them will end up the odd men out.

 

[Feverdream]

Williams will back up Fuller and Parker on the flanks. Bowden/Wilson back up Waddle. Long/Smythe will play the Y-TE spot and be credited as the starter many weeks (just like last year) but generate a lower snap count than the receiving TEs snaps which won't change. Gesicki's role will not change one iota.

Last year, he was on the field 58% of the time. There are more downs when you teams use their slot TE than they use their Y-guy (Smythe 42%). Sheheen is a slot TE and backs up Gesicki (for now).

This is the math of the formations that they use.

Shotgun... we were one of the highest %s in the league and that'll continue, that's Tua's game. Having two slot receivers, is the name of the modern game, and it gives the quick-thinking QBs two immediate options. The quick guy (Waddle/Wilson) or the huge guy with just a safety or a linebacker on him.

You don't just throw out 14 different receivers names and say... look at all these options without examining the role that each will play

 

[AdamD13]

Is also possible... but that just raises their overall cost when he does sign. It's a band-aid, something we'd only do once... and guys who are tagged, CAN hold out... and do sometimes. ...and that tag is about what the Patriots pays each of their two.

For sure not ideal.

I like Gesicki, just don’t know how sold Grier/Flo are on him long-term. Drafting Long was a bit of a surprise. Was the plan to run 2 TE sets or for Long to replace Gesicki in 2022?

They have this year to see how everyone gels.

If Tua excels throwing to the speedy receivers on the team, I foresee Miami spending money going that route. Tua excelled in college hitting the speedy receivers in stride leading to YAC.

If Long shows promise, but not to the point of Flo being sure he is ready to be the guy in 2022, I could see them using the tag on Gesicki. Not saying they will, but it is in play.

I don’t have an opinion on how it is going to play out. Just looking at possibilities and Grier to me can be a bit cutthroat.

 

[Feverdream]

For sure not ideal.

I like Gesicki, just don’t know how sold Grier/Flo are on him long-term. Drafting Long was a bit of a surprise. Was the plan to run 2 TE sets or for Long to replace Gesicki in 2022?

They have this year to see how everyone gels.

If Tua excels throwing to the speedy receivers on the team, I foresee Miami spending money going that route. Tua excelled in college hitting the speedy receivers in stride leading to YAC.

If Long shows promise, but not to the point of Flo being sure he is ready to be the guy in 2022, I could see them using the tag on Gesicki. Not saying they will, but it is in play.

I don’t have an opinion on how it is going to play out. Just looking at possibilities and Grier to me can be a bit cutthroat.

As I've said above... Long seems to a old-school Y-type TE... a better Smythe. My theory is that they were surprised that he was still there and saw the value.

...and the lack of drafting a power RB suggests they value the split TE formations for their moving QB. If they had been expecting to change their offense and go with a power back, then... they'd want the Y as the focus. I think Long was the afterthought... and a great bargain.

If we start hearing Camp Reports that suggest Long is always lining out wide, then I'll withdraw all of this.