Arthur Smith coached like he was on crack most of the season.
NFL over/unders are out...Miami at 10.5
- Thread starter wpgfishfan
- Start date
Arthur Smith coached like he was on crack most of the season.
WestLondonDolphin
Active Roster
These are the odds
+125 means that a bet of $100 pays out $125
-145 means that to win $100 you have to bet $145
I also find this confusing. In the UK this would be expressed as 1.25 / 1 and 1 / 1.45 … which I understand better but maybe just from familiarity
I think that is fair. We have lost some talent this offseason but got 'good enough' replacement rentals.
Our d-line is certainly weaker than last year considering the injuries to both of our defensive ends but our offense should hopfully be more mature.
Our d-line is certainly weaker than last year considering the injuries to both of our defensive ends but our offense should hopfully be more mature.
That is confusing, thanks, I got it now. Appreciate your response.
I think they nailed this one. Realistically I see them winning 10 or 11, so 10.5 makes it tough to call.
Mello Yello
Club Member
I usually go through the schedule with everything set at .5 which is a 50% chance of winning. So I begin with a "neutral" 8.5 wins.
I'll bump things to 60-40 if I feel somewhat confident that one team is better, either giving Miami a 60% chance of winning or 40% chance if they're the weaker team.
I'll cautiously move a few all the way to 70-30 or 75-25 on that same basis. Those are rare though as they represent "sure-thing" scenarios which almost never exist. I set the Panthers at that last season (a sure win) as well as our game in Buffalo (a sure loss).
I did the following for us this year:
Home Games:
0.7 - Pats
0.6 - Jets
0.4 - Bills
0.6 - Jags
0.5 - Titans
0.6 - Cards
0.5 - 49ers
0.6 - Raiders
I wouldn't be surprised to see us go 6-2 at home with losses to the Bills & 49ers but the fact is, we did lose to the Titans last year and were close to doing the same thing against the Raiders. The Jaguars and Cardinals could both sneak up on us. Remember, the Cardinals were without Kyler Murray for 1/2 of last year. They should bounce back into relevancy this year with a .500-ish record. We can't be too confident.
My numbers add to 4.5 wins which is probably too conservative but who knows? I think 5-3 is probably the best bet at this point.
Away Games:
0.7 - Pats
0.6 - Jets
0.3 - Bills
0.5 - Texans
0.6 - Colts
0.5 - Rams
0.6 - Seahawks
0.6 - Browns
0.5 - Packers
I think we could get another 5 wins here but I wouldn't expect anything more. There are too many good (often Playoff) teams on the schedule: Houston, GB, LA, Cleveland, Seattle. We're going to drop one or two in there and lord knows we probably aren't beating Buffalo on the road.
That gives me a total of 9.3 wins.
I think we easily end up at 10 wins if the season goes well but I wouldn't be surprised if we end up losing a few of those close ones against the solid teams.
I'll bump things to 60-40 if I feel somewhat confident that one team is better, either giving Miami a 60% chance of winning or 40% chance if they're the weaker team.
I'll cautiously move a few all the way to 70-30 or 75-25 on that same basis. Those are rare though as they represent "sure-thing" scenarios which almost never exist. I set the Panthers at that last season (a sure win) as well as our game in Buffalo (a sure loss).
I did the following for us this year:
Home Games:
0.7 - Pats
0.6 - Jets
0.4 - Bills
0.6 - Jags
0.5 - Titans
0.6 - Cards
0.5 - 49ers
0.6 - Raiders
I wouldn't be surprised to see us go 6-2 at home with losses to the Bills & 49ers but the fact is, we did lose to the Titans last year and were close to doing the same thing against the Raiders. The Jaguars and Cardinals could both sneak up on us. Remember, the Cardinals were without Kyler Murray for 1/2 of last year. They should bounce back into relevancy this year with a .500-ish record. We can't be too confident.
My numbers add to 4.5 wins which is probably too conservative but who knows? I think 5-3 is probably the best bet at this point.
Away Games:
0.7 - Pats
0.6 - Jets
0.3 - Bills
0.5 - Texans
0.6 - Colts
0.5 - Rams
0.6 - Seahawks
0.6 - Browns
0.5 - Packers
I think we could get another 5 wins here but I wouldn't expect anything more. There are too many good (often Playoff) teams on the schedule: Houston, GB, LA, Cleveland, Seattle. We're going to drop one or two in there and lord knows we probably aren't beating Buffalo on the road.
That gives me a total of 9.3 wins.
I think we easily end up at 10 wins if the season goes well but I wouldn't be surprised if we end up losing a few of those close ones against the solid teams.
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Good analysis. Without diving too deep here 10.5 just seems high for us, we've won 9 or 10 games three of the past four seasons. We play more playoff teams next year than we did this past year. Think there is a reason the over is +125 and the under is -145. The over could happen but is a worse bet.
Springveldt
Active Roster
I haven't bet in years, are prices not fractions anymore? Have we moved to the European style prices?
I would have expected them to be 5/4 for the over while the under would be either be 4/6 or 8/13 (it's actually 20/29 but I've never seen that price in a horse race).
WestLondonDolphin
Active Roster
Yes, you are right re 5/4 (not 1.25/1). I didn’t do the maths!
But that format does seem to be less used now compared with the + / -
We need to find an answer for Josh Allen, that dude has killed Miami worse than Brady did!
Josh Allen has a passer rating of 110.1 with 3,363 yards, 33 touchdowns and 7 interceptions in 12 games versus the Dolphins in his career and is 10-2.
Mello Yello
Club Member
We need to find an answer for Josh Allen, that dude has killed Miami worse than Brady did!
Josh Allen has a passer rating of 110.1 with 3,363 yards, 33 touchdowns and 7 interceptions in 12 games versus the Dolphins in his career and is 10-2.
Whether directly tied or not I will always consider this partially a product of the decision to tank. I remember talking about the Josh Allen problem as early as 2019 when he began his march of utter destruction against Miami.
Making yourself a parody of a franchise can have unforeseen effects and like it or not, we've empowered Josh Allen.
The confidence he brings against Miami didn't come from nowhere.
Between 2019 and 2020 Josh Allen's Bills scored 31, 37, 31 and 56 against the Dolphins who really weren't competitive at all against their supposed Division Rival.
He's been rolling ever since. He began 2021 with a 35-0 win over the Dolphins. I think a lot goes back to handing him free victories early on. Miami has become a "get right" game for the Bills in recent years.
Whether or not they actually own us, they believe they do and they always play with that confidence and swagger.
When you lose the mental edge in sports--or make it such that your opponent believes they are destined to win--it's very hard to overcome that.
Also might be obvious but you get your money back in addition to the 125 (or whatever the number is) if you win
Springveldt
Active Roster
It's why I was all for blowing up the defence and starting it again. Those same players that Allen has killed have been the spine of the defence for the last 4 or 5 seasons. It needed to change. He has a career passer rating of 92.2, having a near 20 point better rating against your defence means something has to change.We need to find an answer for Josh Allen, that dude has killed Miami worse than Brady did!
Josh Allen has a passer rating of 110.1 with 3,363 yards, 33 touchdowns and 7 interceptions in 12 games versus the Dolphins in his career and is 10-2.
