Nfl Qb Position: Absolute Or Relative?

fansinceGWilson

Finheaven VIP
Joined
Mar 14, 2016
Messages
5,213
Reaction score
2,744
I give you A+ for research!

What an exemplary way to back up your opinion/statement with facts!

Perhaps you have a legal background?

That or a research analyst?

Either way -- important information to consider

before one makes "absolute claims/statements!"
Thanks for the support. Background in stats and an investor. For those reasons, I like data but abhor absolutes. This HAS to be known by all here, everyone can supply endless stats to prove any draft prospect is, well, whatever is desired to prove. This, to me, is a good example. Yes, an elite QB helps a lot, but not by himself. The data proves that. And it need not be a rare defense. The garden variety top 3 D will do the job. Some seem to see the world as either/or. Nothing else.
 

BigNastyFish

Super Donator
Finheaven VIP
Joined
Sep 17, 2012
Messages
6,671
Reaction score
10,684
Thanks for the support. Background in stats and an investor. For those reasons, I like data but abhor absolutes. This HAS to be known by all here, everyone can supply endless stats to prove any draft prospect is, well, whatever is desired to prove. This, to me, is a good example. Yes, an elite QB helps a lot, but not by himself. The data proves that. And it need not be a rare defense. The garden variety top 3 D will do the job. Some seem to see the world as either/or. Nothing else.
Right. In simple terms it takes really good team.

:)
 

BlueFin

Seer of Visions
Finheaven VIP
Joined
Jun 2, 2004
Messages
18,115
Reaction score
2,536
Location
Weeki Wachee, Florida
Now were're making progress. We've moved fro "top 5 all-time" to "a great defense."

Let's try it this way. 2008 to 2017. I'm going to use the top 3 Ds for each year (and, yes, I know there are a number of ways to define "top 3)

2008 - all 3 top Ds made the playoffs. One of those, PITT, won the SB
2009 - all 3 top Ds made the playoffs. None got to the SB
2010 - all 3 top Ds made the playoffs. One of those, GB, won the SB
2011 - all 3 top Ds made the playoffs. None got to the SB
2012 - 2 of the top 3 Ds made the playoffs. One of those, One, SF, made it to the SB
2013 - all 3 top Ds made the playoffs. One of those, SEA, wone the SB
2014 - 1 of the top 3 Ds made the playoffs. That team, SEA, made it to the SB
2015 - all 3 top Ds made the playoffs. One of those, CAR, made it to the SB
2016 - 2 of the top 2 Ds made the playoffs. One of those, NE, won the SB
2017 - 2 of the top 2 Ds made the playoffs. None of those made it to the SB

In 7 of those 10 years, one of the top 3 Ds made it to the SB. It is not reasonable to say all 7 were "extraordinary" over the course of NFL history. They were good THAT year (although most were good, not extraordinary, for a number of years).

Now, back to an elite QB. Is it easier to have an elite QB than a top 3 D? I'd say no, but admit, it's debatable. BTW, in 6 of those 10 years, a non-elite QB won the SB. I'm not arguing elite QBs aren't important, nor am I arguing I wouldn't love Miami to have one. I'm responding to the poster who, again, emphasized an "all-time top 5" D, as if anything less than "all --time top 5" wasn't as important. I'm only pointing out a top 3 d for ANY random year has a high correlation to SB appearances.
Your missing the point....the three average QB’s that won Superbowls had top 5 ever defenses.

“Great” to me means historic....one of the best ever...not just that year!
 

j-off-her-doll

Finheaven VIP
Joined
Apr 29, 2009
Messages
17,600
Reaction score
5,355
Location
Dream Songs
Now were're making progress. We've moved fro "top 5 all-time" to "a great defense."

Let's try it this way. 2008 to 2017. I'm going to use the top 3 Ds for each year (and, yes, I know there are a number of ways to define "top 3)

2008 - all 3 top Ds made the playoffs. One of those, PITT, won the SB
2009 - all 3 top Ds made the playoffs. None got to the SB
2010 - all 3 top Ds made the playoffs. One of those, GB, won the SB
2011 - all 3 top Ds made the playoffs. None got to the SB
2012 - 2 of the top 3 Ds made the playoffs. One of those, One, SF, made it to the SB
2013 - all 3 top Ds made the playoffs. One of those, SEA, wone the SB
2014 - 1 of the top 3 Ds made the playoffs. That team, SEA, made it to the SB
2015 - all 3 top Ds made the playoffs. One of those, CAR, made it to the SB
2016 - 2 of the top 2 Ds made the playoffs. One of those, NE, won the SB
2017 - 2 of the top 2 Ds made the playoffs. None of those made it to the SB

In 7 of those 10 years, one of the top 3 Ds made it to the SB. It is not reasonable to say all 7 were "extraordinary" over the course of NFL history. They were good THAT year (although most were good, not extraordinary, for a number of years).

Now, back to an elite QB. Is it easier to have an elite QB than a top 3 D? I'd say no, but admit, it's debatable. BTW, in 6 of those 10 years, a non-elite QB won the SB. I'm not arguing elite QBs aren't important, nor am I arguing I wouldn't love Miami to have one. I'm responding to the poster who, again, emphasized an "all-time top 5" D, as if anything less than "all --time top 5" wasn't as important. I'm only pointing out a top 3 d for ANY random year has a high correlation to SB appearances.
I think repeatability is where the argument favors the great QB/offense. With the exception of Seattle, who have a great QB btw, teams have a very difficult time repeating high-end success on D. Getting to and winning the SB has a lot of randomness baked into it. You want to give yourself as many chances as possible, and to give yourself multiple chances (teams good enough to be in that position), you need a great playcaller, QB, and offense - balance of OL and receiving options.
 

39wildman

Starter
Joined
Jan 20, 2008
Messages
3,004
Reaction score
562
1.TOP 12 QB plus top 10 def and offense = SB
2. avg QB PLUS #1 DEF and great running games= SB
3 top10 QB -NO RUNNING GAME- below avg DEFENSE + good wr = PLAYOFF Dan marino
BELOW AVG QB-GOOD WR-POOR DEF/ OLINE play SOMETINE = LOSING SEASON DOLPHINS 2017-2018 6 to 8 win
 

fansinceGWilson

Finheaven VIP
Joined
Mar 14, 2016
Messages
5,213
Reaction score
2,744
Your missing the point....the three average QB’s that won Superbowls had top 5 ever defenses.

“Great” to me means historic....one of the best ever...not just that year!
Your quote was "3 often mentioned are the 85’ Bears, 00’ Ravens and the 01’ Bucs... all three had very average QB’s...all three had one of the top 5 defenses ever." You're right. I'm not interested in 'top 5 ever Ds.
Your missing the point....the three average QB’s that won Superbowls had top 5 ever defenses.

“Great” to me means historic....one of the best ever...not just that year!
Once more, I'm responding to 'top 5 all-time D or an elite QB.' By definition, 'top 5 all-time' is more rare than 'elite QB.' No one can argue that. And I concede an elite QB is more consistent than a top D. That's why I KEEP saying I, and all fans, want an elite QB, or, at a minimum, a top 10 QB. This is NOT either/or.

The point I'm making is NOT average QBs. It's ANY QB - elite, top, or average. Consider this. Rodgers won the SB in 2010 with a top 3 D. How many years did he win the SB without a top 3 D. How about wilson? How many times has Ben won a SB without a top 3 D? A top 3 D won the SB in 7 of the 10 years I noted. Conversely, Foles (btw, an average QB without a top 5 all-time D), PManning (when he was no longer elite), EManning, and Flacco won.

I've said too many times already, I'm not saying an elite (or top 10) QB isn't necessary. Never did. I'm all about correcting some myths.
QBWINZ - I don't even need to comment on that, but there are some here who still say 'just get an elite QB and the SB will come.'
In today's NFL, the D isn't as important - again, no explanation needed.

Have I said a top QB is important and I want one? Oh, yeah, I did. And I also said this isn't either/or. It's a top 3 D (not elite or extraordinary) AND a top QB that significantly increase the chance. I could also add a top HC. It's a TEAM. An organization. Top, not historic) Ds win SBs. Not by themselves, just as elite QBs don't win SBs by themselves.
 

BigNastyFish

Super Donator
Finheaven VIP
Joined
Sep 17, 2012
Messages
6,671
Reaction score
10,684
Bottom line IMO -- it's actually good news that we don't need a "best ever

super hero QB" to actually build a TEAM that can consistently challenge for

championships etc. That said -- of course we NEED a high-performance QB!

A dude that is capable of playing consistent, highly productive ball and NOT

cave when it's time to get the pig in the Nzone. And if we can surround that

dude with a positive compliment including OL, running game and receivers

that get open and make plays -- we should be VERY EFFECTIVE on O.

Add a well coached, disciplined, smart, talented D and

there ya go!
 

fansinceGWilson

Finheaven VIP
Joined
Mar 14, 2016
Messages
5,213
Reaction score
2,744
Bottom line IMO -- it's actually good news that we don't need a "best ever

super hero QB" to actually build a TEAM that can consistently challenge for

championships etc. That said -- of course we NEED a high-performance QB!

A dude that is capable of playing consistent, highly productive ball and NOT

cave when it's time to get the pig in the Nzone. And if we can surround that

dude with a positive compliment including OL, running game and receivers

that get open and make plays -- we should be VERY EFFECTIVE on O.

Add a well coached, disciplined, smart, talented D and

there ya go!
I see nowhere I'd disagree. Even the vaunted Brady won SBs with a D no worse than 8th. The problem is those who claim those of us wanting a top D DON'T want a top QB. That either/or stuff. I'd LOVE an elite QB, but I'm realistic enough to know an elite QB, by himself, has a much lower chance of wining a SB. Yeah, get a "high-performance" QB, but don't ignore the D or the rest of the team. That's why I put so much emphasis on a good HC/OC/DC.
 
Top Bottom