Only 2 QB's taken outside of the 1st round since 03 have been successful

[Kinzua]

One name. Tom Brady. Yea I know he was drafted out of the 1st rd, but c'mon.

I'm tired of the draft selection and stats. Just look at an entire draft and you can say that about a lot of players from any position.

Go back and look at last years draft and name me 15 players from any position that we serious impact players?

Tough to do.

I think that the reason Brady was successful was because he got attention early on because he got pushed into the starter's role early in his career. Most backup QBs don't get much attention, and so their opportunities to learn are minimal. This is somewhat less true of first and second rounders who may bet some attention, but definitely true of guys lower down in the draft. If some of these guys really got help from coaches in developing their skills, more would develop. Teams draft "developmental" QBs but don't ever try to seriously "develop" them. :crazy:

One of the things that I found interesting is that both Romo and Moore came out of the Cowboys' organization. Both were UDFA. I remember when Romo first became the starter, how he talked about one of the QB coaches working with him. That usually doesn't happen with backup QBs. I suspect that somebody in Dallas may have worked with Moore as well.

 

[Geforce]

And since 2008, that ratio is quite different. The league is vastly different a decade later.


Kinda funny you had to go back to 2000 to make your case. When things have changed so much. My point stands. You don't invest a TOP 10 pick on a QB and sit him. You just don't. You have to see what the investment and ceiling is, early.

You are right that since 2008 that ratio is quite different and I mentioned that. Of the 11 QB drafted in the 1st round since 2008, six started the first game of their respected season with Joe Flacco being the only one not drafted in the Top 5 to do so. That's six who started the first game and five who did not.

Unless you have some very good pieces surrounding your rookie QB, you should only start him if you don't have a better option available.

Matt Ryan had Roddy White, Michael Turner and the #2 rushing offense to take some of the pressure off of him.

Joe Flacco became the starter after the first two QBs missed time with either an injury or illness and had Derek Mason, Todd Heap and the #1 rushing offense to some of the pressure off of him.

Matthew Stafford had Calvin Johnson and not much else and only played in 13 games over the first two seasons because of the pounding he took.

Mark Sanchez had a very underrated receiver corp and the #1 rushing offense to help him manage games.

Sam Bradford set a rookie record for attempts and completions and had Pro Bowler Steven Jackson to fall back on.

Cam Newton had Pro Bowler Steve Smith and was a part of the #1 rushing offense.

 

[Geforce]

and T. Jackson with the Seahawks 2nd rd pick and he won a playoff game.

T. Jackson was not on the Seahawks roster in 2010 when they defeated the Saints.

 

[dlockz]

You are right that since 2008 that ratio is quite different and I mentioned that. Of the 11 QB drafted in the 1st round since 2008, six started the first game of their respected season with Joe Flacco being the only one not drafted in the Top 5 to do so. That's six who started the first game and five who did not.

Unless you have some very good pieces surrounding your rookie QB, you should only start him if you don't have a better option available.

Matt Ryan had Roddy White, Michael Turner and the #2 rushing offense to take some of the pressure off of him.

Joe Flacco became the starter after the first two QBs missed time with either an injury or illness and had Derek Mason, Todd Heap and the #1 rushing offense to some of the pressure off of him.

Matthew Stafford had Calvin Johnson and not much else and only played in 13 games over the first two seasons because of the pounding he took.

Mark Sanchez had a very underrated receiver corp and the #1 rushing offense to help him manage games.

Sam Bradford set a rookie record for attempts and completions and had Pro Bowler Steven Jackson to fall back on.

Cam Newton had Pro Bowler Steve Smith and was a part of the #1 rushing offense.

when you draft a guy you can always add pieces. Ryan went to a horrible Falcons team that had Roddy white in place and thats its. They added more pieces. and he was successful

 

[Geforce]

I went to the link and all I found was another forum. I'm not sure what that proves.

Aside from Brees and Schaub, three QBs drafted outside the first round are NFL starters as of today: Matt Cassell (7th), Ryan Fitzpatrick (7th) and Colt McCoy (3rd). McCoy was only drafted in 2010, so he still gets as much slack as Sam Bradford who was not very good last season, and of course, Savior Tebow, whom John Elway sent packing as fast as he could after obtaining a real QB. Two current NFL starters are UDFA: Tony Romo and Matt Moore.


QBs drafted in the first round since 2001-2010:

• 2001:#1 Michael Vick
• 2002:#1 David Carr, #3 Joey Harrington
• 2003:#1 Carson Palmer, #7 Byron Leftwich, #19 Kyle Boller, #22 Rex Grossman
• 2004:#1 Eli Manning, #4 Phillip Rivers, #11 Ben Roethlisberger, #22 JP Losman
• 2005:#1 Alex Smith, #24 Aaron Rodgers, #25 Jason Campbell
• 2006:#3 Vince Young, #10 Matt Leinart, #11 Jay Cutler
• 2007:#1 JaMarcus Russell, #22 Brady Quinn
• 2008:#3 Matt Ryan, #18 Joe Flacco
• 2009:#1 Matthew Stafford, #5 Mark Sanchez, #17 Josh Freeman
• 2010:#1 Sam Bradford, #25 Tim Tebow

Of the 26 QBs drafted in the first round, 10 could be considered "elite or very good". I put them in bold. Of the remaining 16, Alex Smith, Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman, and Sam Bradford are starters. Tebow is a complete outlier. He'll probably supplant Sanchez early on for the Jests. That leaves 11 busts who are either out of the NFL or who are members of the Failed First Round QB Tour which may or may not be stopping in your city. IMO, Sanchez and Tebow may be joining the FFRQT in 2013.

Obviously, drafting a QB in the first round doesn't always yield a franchise QB. Over the last decade, only about 38% of first round QBs can be considered "very good/elite" -- franchise QBs. Even if you just count starters from the first round, you still only hit about 54%.

It's actually 27 QBs drafted in the 1st round since 2001. You forgot about the Redskins drafting of Patrick Ramsey with the 32 pick in the 2002 draft.

 

[Geforce]

when you draft a guy you can always add pieces. Ryan went to a horrible Falcons team that had Roddy white in place and thats its. They added more pieces. and he was successful

The Falcons were terrible team in 2007 because the Michael Vick situation left the team scrambling for answers at QB and Joey Harrington was not it. Yes the Falcons added more pieces to help Ryan succeed as a rookie but he was still their best option at QB.

 

[islandah]

I love this thread! I am so sicking of people saying "We should take xyz in the 2nd/3rd/4th/ and sit him for a couple years until he's ready..." They're not fruit that needs to ripen! A 3rd round qb doesn't just evolve into a 1st round talent if given enough time on the bench!

Now, that doesn't mean that every qb taken in the 1st round will be a success, and you have to decide if Tannehill is a true 1st round talent, or being pushed up the board by hype and his position. But, the OP makes the excellent point that IF you're going after a franchise qb, the first round is where the overwhelming majority come from. If they aren't in the 1st round, there's a reason, and it doesn't go away with bench time!

 

[dlockz]

The Falcons were terrible team in 2007 because the Michael Vick situation left the team scrambling for answers at QB and Joey Harrington was not it. Yes the Falcons added more pieces to help Ryan succeed as a rookie but he was still their best option at QB.

The falcons had not HAD A WINNIGN SEASON in three years Ryan gets no credit on this board

 

[Adam Strange]

The falcons had not HAD A WINNIGN SEASON in three years Ryan gets no credit on this board

Of course not. That would require admitting that the Dolphins made a huge mistake by passing on him. And for the Aqua Kool-Aid brigade, that's just a bridge too far.

 

[Geforce]

The falcons had not HAD A WINNIGN SEASON in three years Ryan gets no credit on this board

You obviously have me confused with someone else. While the Falcons did not have a winning record in the three seasons prior to Ryan being drafted, they were only terrible in 2007.

 

[dlockz]

You obviously have me confused with someone else. While the Falcons did not have a winning record in the three seasons prior to Ryan being drafted, they were only terrible in 2007.

Wasnt implying you give him no credit. They were only horrible in 2007 just like we were only horrible in 2007

 

[Dmarino110]

So you really wanna take a risk on weeden/osweiler?


http://www.sulia.com/channel/nfl-draft-2012/f/ebd6ec1f-9a56-48f8-a0cb-d2cd666a3501/?source=twitter

Only 1 in the last 12-14 year is a STAR...Brees...

 

[fishbanger]

Wait a minute, Brady was drafted in year 2000. Thats 12 years ago. Eli Manning drafted in 2004. Rodgers drafted in 2005. All three of these are better then Brees. Phins passed on Brees in the first round to draft a nickle CB that was a bust and we needed a QB bad then and now.