Only 2 QB's taken outside of the 1st round since 03 have been successful | Page 4 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Only 2 QB's taken outside of the 1st round since 03 have been successful

If Tannehill is available at 8 would definitely take him. It isn't all about whether he is good value there, it is about what the coaches can do with him. The coaches in GB took great pride in developing QBs, think Philbin and co will too. Getting him at 8 the coaches could sit him for a while with Moore on board but start him late as a rookie/bring him along in his 2nd year.
 
LarryFinFan said:
I'll be you were one of those guys that couldn't believe that Quinn was left on the board and we didn't take him either ??

I don't know that Tannehill is a franchise guy, but I can tell you he's the NEXT best QB option that MAY be available to us. If you don't like Tannehill (and he's available to us), are u suggesting we just sit tight with MMoore and Garrard and choose a DE or OL ?? That's exciting... If Cleveland takes Tannehill, do you suggest we take Weeden at #8 ?? Is he worth that pick ?? What if we get to that point, Tannehill is taken and we can't find a trade down partner ?? Ireland is damned if does and damned if he doesn't it seems... No one will be happy if we don't come out of the draft without some kind of a QB in the top rounds, yet he'll get ostracized and hung in effigy whether he takes Tannehill, Weeden or none of the above...
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Assume away. Because I was never a Quinn guy. Never. As for your suggestion to taking a QB in a weak year for QB's is absurd. You don't draft someone to sit or to please a fan base, if the value isn't there. IMO, the value isn't. At 8 MIA will be in position to take a ELITE talent. You take that talent all day, and look in the 2nd or 3rd for better value.

BTW, you don't draft to be 'exciting'. :crazy:
 
oasis said:
There are first-round QBs and then there are QBs that get taken in the first round due to overdrafting. My personal take is that Tannehill is in the latter category. Would I draft him? Yes, I'd take a risk on him in the 2nd, the same way we took a risk on Beck and Henne. But drafting him in the first round does not make him a first round QB, nor does it endow him with any greater statistical probability of success.

Put another way, I agree we must draft a first-round QB (which is different than saying "we must draft a QB in the first round"). But there aren't any available to us this draft.
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Winner winner, chicken dinner!!!
 
Valandui said:
Since the only QB in this draft that's better than Weeden is Andrew Luck, yeah. I'd be cool with Weeden.
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I strongly feel that Cleveland and Miami will duel in this draft for Weeden, not Tannehill. Cleveland will pass on Tannehill at #4. Things will get very interesting when we pass on Tannehill at #8, instead dropping down to the 15-20 range. Tannehill will therefore probably go to KC. Meanwhile, Cleveland will panic, thinking they had Weeden locked up at 22. They will need to jump ahead of us to take Weeden, which they may or may not be able to do. Cleveland has the upper hand though - when it comes to Weeden, they can watch what we do and react accordingly (unless we take Weeden at 8).
 
so if we finished last year at 8 -8 and were picking 15th would you still take tannenhill? it appears all that matters is where we pick him.if he is the next schaub or even a upgrade at the position why not take a chance
 
Drafting a guy early, even though he isn't really a first round talent, doesn't make him any less likely to bust than if you waited and took him in the second.
 
Thats why if phins trade down they should go no lower then #15. Probably there are not too many teams inside the top 15 that want to trade down. Quality of player is much better then 16-22. Jets may trade down if we were picking #17 to screw us so we dont want to pick behind the JETS.
 
I went to the link and all I found was another forum. I'm not sure what that proves.

Aside from Brees and Schaub, three QBs drafted outside the first round are NFL starters as of today: Matt Cassell (7th), Ryan Fitzpatrick (7th) and Colt McCoy (3rd). McCoy was only drafted in 2010, so he still gets as much slack as Sam Bradford who was not very good last season, and of course, Savior Tebow, whom John Elway sent packing as fast as he could after obtaining a real QB. Two current NFL starters are UDFA: Tony Romo and Matt Moore.


QBs drafted in the first round since 2001-2010:
  • 2001:#1 Michael Vick
  • 2002:#1 David Carr, #3 Joey Harrington
  • 2003:#1 Carson Palmer, #7 Byron Leftwich, #19 Kyle Boller, #22 Rex Grossman
  • 2004:#1 Eli Manning, #4 Phillip Rivers, #11 Ben Roethlisberger, #22 JP Losman
  • 2005:#1 Alex Smith, #24 Aaron Rodgers, #25 Jason Campbell
  • 2006:#3 Vince Young, #10 Matt Leinart, #11 Jay Cutler
  • 2007:#1 JaMarcus Russell, #22 Brady Quinn
  • 2008:#3 Matt Ryan, #18 Joe Flacco
  • 2009:#1 Matthew Stafford, #5 Mark Sanchez, #17 Josh Freeman
  • 2010:#1 Sam Bradford, #25 Tim Tebow

Of the 26 QBs drafted in the first round, 10 could be considered "elite or very good". I put them in bold. Of the remaining 16, Alex Smith, Mark Sanchez, Josh Freeman, and Sam Bradford are starters. Tebow is a complete outlier. He'll probably supplant Sanchez early on for the Jests. That leaves 11 busts who are either out of the NFL or who are members of the Failed First Round QB Tour which may or may not be stopping in your city. IMO, Sanchez and Tebow may be joining the FFRQT in 2013.

Obviously, drafting a QB in the first round doesn't always yield a franchise QB. Over the last decade, only about 38% of first round QBs can be considered "very good/elite" -- franchise QBs. Even if you just count starters from the first round, you still only hit about 54%.
 
One name. Tom Brady. Yea I know he was drafted out of the 1st rd, but c'mon.

I'm tired of the draft selection and stats. Just look at an entire draft and you can say that about a lot of players from any position.

Go back and look at last years draft and name me 15 players from any position that we serious impact players?

Tough to do.
 
vagrantprodigy said:
Drafting a guy early, even though he isn't really a first round talent, doesn't make him any less likely to bust than if you waited and took him in the second.
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This seems to be a fact that some fans cannot grasp. In most drafts, despite how many QBs are drafted in the first round, there's maybe 1 top QB and maybe another useful QB out of all the rounds. The only 2 drafts in the last 30 years to yield more than 2 top tier QBs were 1983 and 2004. 2012 is a 2 QB draft at best, and I don't either is named Tannehill.
 
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