Open Plea To Mr Ross: Keep "trader Mike" Out Of The Draft Room And...

[SCLSU Mud Dogs]

... away from the phone the first 2 nites.

Consider that "he who ignores history is doomed to repeat it":

In Tannenbaum's first year as Jets GM in 2006 his first 2 rounds: D'Brick Ferguson and Nick Mangold = 2 runs
Standing count 2 hits for 2 swings

In 2007 at the top of the draft he did hit home runs trading up for all world Revis and drafting David Harris
Standing count: 4 for 4

However also consider those years might well have been beginner's luck, vis a vis:
2008: who could forget Vernon Gholston in the 1st although Keller in the 2nd was productive
Standing count: 5 hits out of 6

2009: Mark Sanchez on a trade up (enough said on that cluster****) and Shonn Greene might not have been worth a 2nd but he wasn't awful
Standing count 5.5 hits out of 8

2010: Kyle Wilson in the 1st, Vlad Ducasse in 2nd = 2 swings and misses
standing count: 5.5 hits out of 10

2011: Mohammed Wilkerson at 30 = nice hit. No pick in the second* = penalty whiff
standing count: 6.5 hits out of 12

2012 Quinton Couples in the first and Stephen ****ing Hill in the 2nd = 2 whiffs!
extra demerit: Signed Sanchez to an unnecessary extension while ignoring Terry Bradbury's plea to draft Russell Wilson in the 2nd or 3rd = -2 for double penalty
standing count adjusted: 6.5 hits out 14 1st and 2nd round picks + double penalty = 6.5 out of 16

Not a very good batting average at the top of the draft where most long term starters reside. Now you can argue that in later rounds, he did have some success with mid round players including Leon Washington, Thomas Jones, and exchanging picks for starters including Holmes, Edwards, Sheppard, which is true.. but this is about how he used his 14 top picks and it's clear that after 2007, his success rate plummeted. So at the least, keep him out of the draft room and off the phone the first 2 nights please.

Also consider:
Each team before adjustments are awarded at least 7 picks,(often receiving several more for FA "compensation picks." ) From 2006-2012, in 7 seasons teams start off with at least 7 picks per season or 49 total picks.

*However thanks to "Trader Mike" during that time span the Jets had a total of 31 draft picks in 7 years or 4.4 picks per season.

While it's true that this season the Phins have 8 picks and last season 7, does a leopard ever change its spots? At the least Mr Ross, keep him away from the phone!!!

Actually, if you're talking batting averages, 6/16 is great. 0.375 hitter? The Marlins need that kind of guy.

 

[Krush]

they shouldn't pick any player that they don't value that high, top defender or not, build the team to what you need, hell you might already have that person on your roster if they just develop them, surely the Pats didn't bring in Brady to take them to 5 superbowls, If Barkley is there at 2 and you feel that would change how they attack the field then go get him, you might be pissed off but hey it's their decision. I wouldn't mind it, the fins have been drafting for needs for the past 15 years because they don't develop their players.

 

[DKphin]

It ain't going to happen

 

[fansinceGWilson]

... away from the phone the first 2 nites.

Consider that "he who ignores history is doomed to repeat it":

In Tannenbaum's first year as Jets GM in 2006 his first 2 rounds: D'Brick Ferguson and Nick Mangold = 2 runs
Standing count 2 hits for 2 swings

In 2007 at the top of the draft he did hit home runs trading up for all world Revis and drafting David Harris
Standing count: 4 for 4

However also consider those years might well have been beginner's luck, vis a vis:
2008: who could forget Vernon Gholston in the 1st although Keller in the 2nd was productive
Standing count: 5 hits out of 6

2009: Mark Sanchez on a trade up (enough said on that cluster****) and Shonn Greene might not have been worth a 2nd but he wasn't awful
Standing count 5.5 hits out of 8

2010: Kyle Wilson in the 1st, Vlad Ducasse in 2nd = 2 swings and misses
standing count: 5.5 hits out of 10

2011: Mohammed Wilkerson at 30 = nice hit. No pick in the second* = penalty whiff
standing count: 6.5 hits out of 12

2012 Quinton Couples in the first and Stephen ****ing Hill in the 2nd = 2 whiffs!
extra demerit: Signed Sanchez to an unnecessary extension while ignoring Terry Bradbury's plea to draft Russell Wilson in the 2nd or 3rd = -2 for double penalty
standing count adjusted: 6.5 hits out 14 1st and 2nd round picks + double penalty = 6.5 out of 16

Not a very good batting average at the top of the draft where most long term starters reside. Now you can argue that in later rounds, he did have some success with mid round players including Leon Washington, Thomas Jones, and exchanging picks for starters including Holmes, Edwards, Sheppard, which is true.. but this is about how he used his 14 top picks and it's clear that after 2007, his success rate plummeted. So at the least, keep him out of the draft room and off the phone the first 2 nights please.

Also consider:
Each team before adjustments are awarded at least 7 picks,(often receiving several more for FA "compensation picks." ) From 2006-2012, in 7 seasons teams start off with at least 7 picks per season or 49 total picks.

*However thanks to "Trader Mike" during that time span the Jets had a total of 31 draft picks in 7 years or 4.4 picks per season.

While it's true that this season the Phins have 8 picks and last season 7, does a leopard ever change its spots? At the least Mr Ross, keep him away from the phone!!!

TBaum doesn't/won't trade on his own regardless how much some want to believe it. Any trades belong to the entire war room

 

[ChrisTRD]

Pretty sure a lot of stuff floating out there that this year its Gase's team. Hes had the biggest say in player moves and I see it continuing and it being his draft.

 

[The Bopkin]

I fear the bay area teams stealing our cookies at LB and I am scared we get stuck with a lineman (nelson, mcglinchey, vea) They are considered elite players but ANY lineman is never worth a pick so high as #11. .

Would Dwight Stephenson, Jim Langer or Larry Little be worth the 11th pick?

I have seen so many mocks and so few have a consensus on ANY pick(no one can really even agree on #1 overall for crying out loud), let alone our pick at 11. I put no stock into some clown's mock that his employer is probably requiring him to do, especially one that has us trading up to 5.

And I appreciate the Tannenbaum historical breakdown, but Vernon Gholston, at that time, was projected by many as a top 10 pick. Not a stupid pick, it just didn't work out. The others, not so good- even Sanchez, who ultimately failed- he's a QB, so like most QBs = overvalued.

I know everyone loves to hate on Tannenbaum and blame him for everything, but I think it's become pretty clear that this is Gase's show, and that if any trade up is made, it's because Gase said he wants a certain player and all Tannenbaum or GRIER (we always seem to forget that Grier is actually GM in charge of personnel) will do is do what he needs to do to get that player. To insinuate that Tannenbaum is going to go rogue and start making trades against Gase's will is ludicrous. If a bat**** crazy trade is made, blame Gase as an equal with Tannenbaum, because that is probably where the directive came from.

 

[BSQ]

I'm 100% against giving up our #2 to move up unless it's for the QB that we covet. If we just sit there at 11 a great defensive star will fall to us, snag him, and use that #73 to get a stud TE. That #73 could easily land us a Giseki or Hurst etc. I'm not giving that pick away so I can get Smith or Edmunds instead of James, Fitz or Vea. Any one of those 5 named are day one starters that help our defense big time. The odds are very high that one of these 5 names will be our pick. Hang in there at 11, don't get twitchy, let the draft come to you.

 

[Beach Bum]

Things were going ok for me so far today and then I read this. Sigh...

 

[Vaark]

Actually, if you're talking batting averages, 6/16 is great. 0.375 hitter? The Marlins need that kind of guy.

I hear ya, but the difference is that a BBP is up at least 4 times a game, takes at least 3 swings each at bat and is up over 300X a year. OTOH, NFL teams drafting in the 1st and 2nd rounds most often take 2 swings per draft, so each swing better damn count!

 

[The Bopkin]

I wonder what the hit/miss rate is on average for first rounders in the NFL.
If you went back over, say, Ozzie Newsome's drafts in Baltimore, because he has a nice sample size, or Bellicheck's in New England, I wonder how they would pan out "batting average" wise...
I wonder if they are even at .500 for nailing a starting caliber stud in the first round in their tenures. Not implying I don't think they are, but I wonder.
And i am not motivated enough to check.

 

[fansinceGWilson]

I wonder what the hit/miss rate is on average for first rounders in the NFL.
If you went back over, say, Ozzie Newsome's drafts in Baltimore, because he has a nice sample size, or Bellicheck's in New England, I wonder how they would pan out "batting average" wise...
I wonder if they are even at .500 for nailing a starting caliber stud in the first round in their tenures. Not implying I don't think they are, but I wonder.
And i am not motivated enough to check.

Good point. The only problem is what is considered a 'hit' or 'miss.' A player who is drafted at #11 and starts his entire career, but never gets Pro-Bowl. Is he hit or miss? A player with YGS (Yatil Green Syndrome) . . . should the FO be flagged for that miss? What about a guy who takes 3 years to progress to perennial All-Pro? When does the hit-or-miss judgement begin? How about Neil O'Donnel(?)? Was he a hit or just lucky to be a Steeler?

In your case, you did narrow it down to "starting caliber," but added "stud." I'm betting most NFL teams would consider a R1 starting caliber guy a hit. THOSE are in a minority.

 

[The Bopkin]

Good point. The only problem is what is considered a 'hit' or 'miss.' A player who is drafted at #11 and starts his entire career, but never gets Pro-Bowl. Is he hit or miss? A player with YGS (Yatil Green Syndrome) . . . should the FO be flagged for that miss? What about a guy who takes 3 years to progress to perennial All-Pro? When does the hit-or-miss judgement begin? How about Neil O'Donnel(?)? Was he a hit or just lucky to be a Steeler?

In your case, you did narrow it down to "starting caliber," but added "stud." I'm betting most NFL teams would consider a R1 starting caliber guy a hit. THOSE are in a minority.

Great points, and Exactly why I wasn't motivated enough to look it up. I would have had to create all kinds of sub-categories- hall of famer, solid starter, asterisk due to injury, late bloomer didn't start with drafting team but started elsewhere and had a nice career, etc. If we just narrowed it down to solid starter, which is I think the floor for what we would expect for a first rounder, I would probably start there I guess.

 

[Blake the great]

I 2nd this notion.

 

[kingfin23]

All theses QBs will be mediocre. Stay put

 

[Jay131866]

Trade down (if Smith and Edmunds are gone).

Take Vander Esch. Then a TE and another LB in the 2nd.

Get your QB in the 3rd after the insurance is paid.

Then DT and RB in the 4th. Or a FS.

Don’t forget a K.

Damn, I shoulda been a GM. Drinks all around.....

replace the 2nd LB with a S like Reid and I'm on board. Or Replace LVE with Reid, and take a LB (warner?) with 2nd pick