Couldnt agree more with everything you wrote--especially the point about KC not needing to tank to assemble their 'unstippable" core. To follow their lead means not falling in love with "stoppable" players and instead erring toward trading them too soon rather than too late or letting them walk when trade compesation would greatly outweigh compensatory--or worse overpaying them to stay.I agree and it's why I've continually been a skeptic.
We've hit on solid players with high picks but none worthy of building the franchise around. There's no HoF MLB who we could've built an entire Super Bowl caliber defense around and would've been happy re-signing. There's been no HoF QB who would've been capable of carrying the team to the Super Bowl with the weaponry we've had over the last couple years.
We've had a good roster but not a great one, thus I'm not going to fall in love with anyone from Holland to Phillips to Tua. Injuries and general lack of performance against good competition have too often let us down with this group. If we ultimately have to rebuild with another, so be it.
People point to Wilkins and Hunt as hits (and they are hits to be fair about it even though that's now ancient history) but they weren't good enough to warrant re-signing not only because they will prove replaceable from a talent perspective but also because they are a DT and a G, two positions that are always replaceable due to a lack of direct game-impact unless you're talking about a HoF-level player (e.g. Aaron Donald).
The lesson:
>> If you take a non-premium position high in the draft, be it a DT, G, FS, RB, etc., that player had better be a franchise player worthy of HoF discussion or else they just won't have warranted the pick. It's dangerous to pick such positions because it's so hard to make it worth your while. Those positions are too available, too replaceable and too cheap not to fill via mid-rounders and FA.
Grier's most recent job was to make sure we had alternatives when those two hit FA and as far as I can tell, he did nothing for us. We'll be worse at DT with two stop-gaps and the interior OL is still a question.
A bad GM is constantly racing around plugging holes and that's exactly what we've been doing for a long, long time. The Tank only exacerbated that by creating a talent deficiency across the entire roster and setting up a situation where we'd do exactly what we've done >> used high picks on non-premium positions to fill holes and brought in a bunch of expensive outside talent to make us look competitive.
My fear is that the NFL has consciously turned itself into a game where no star is worthy of a large 2nd contract unless that player (this being especially true of QBs through which the entire game is controlled) has transcendent physical talent capable of reaching a level you'd call "unstoppable."
What you describe about stars and fill-ins is probably true and it makes a lot of sense in terms of marketing. The more concentrated and "heroic" a few singular people are the more marketable it is. You need your stars and it's better if the sport is built around identifying it's icons.
I don't know what about Tua is supposedly so. He's thus far shown to be quite stoppable as far as I can tell. Why we'd forego future lottery picks to stick with a known commodity is a mystery to me. I think people forget how easy it is to be a middle-of-the-road team. With a little effort, Miami isn't falling that far back and yet being a perennial 9-, 10- or 11-win team probably ain't enough.
For instance, the Bills went 7-9 in 2016 and then 9-7 in 2017 under QB Tyrod Taylor before getting into position in the following draft (through a trade with Tampa Bay) where they selected Josh Allen with the #7 pick (the 3rd QB in that draft).
You don't have to suck to find a guy that changes the course of your franchise--and it isn't that hard to be .500--but you can't tie yourself to someone who ain't the man. The Chiefs were a Playoff team when they drafted Pat Mahomes. They didn't tank to make that happen. But they weren't afraid of moving on from Alex Smith either. Deshaun Watson went a couple picks later to a Texans team that won it's division and won a Playoff game the year prior under QB Brock Osweiler.
We all root for the Dolphins and for Tua but that doesn't mean we're betting our life savings on them to beat out better teams/players.
Amassing draft capital means number of picks as much if not more than high picks. It allows for at least serviceable continuity when sub-elite players become injury-prone, too expensive or dispensable for other reasons. It allows for risk taking in any round--picking for ceilings and not depending on a reliable floor. This means spending on scouting too. It may also mean overpaying the scout team to discourage poaching.
Great coaching is the other ingredient, and i think Miami is moving in the right direction right now.
. Do you know what Belichick’s record is without Brady?
