Phans Highly Overvalue The Draft

[ChambersWI]

From Russell Wilson

Russell Wilson ‏@DangeRussWilson Feb 5
The 2012 @seahawks draft class. They graded us as an F. Now we are World Champs! #GodisGood #GoHawks pic.twitter.com/HuOjkuOYVa

And yes that draft class was destroyed by experts

 

[FSU Truth]

Things change from year to year or, they should.

and yet you are pretty much getting the same response....

Draft is important, if it wasn't Ireland would still have a job...

 

[napsndreds]

We need a good gm to have a good draft. The jury is out.

 

[rent this space]

Thanks for pointing that out RTS, I completely forgot about that one, and am repeating myself to a degree, which was not my intent. I sometimes put up threads in reply to a number of posts I read, and this one should have been combined with the last.

You definitely have strong feelings on the subject.
One thing I think people forget is that the draft fills positions all over the roster. Yes, you may only get 2-3 starters but you also get role players that are very important to every team. Everyone will miss on some draft picks, but a good portion of free agents are busts, too.
In the late rounds you get guys that might only do one thing well. The key is utilizing that one thing to help you win. Good teams do that and it's why the draft is so important.

 

[So Be]

and yet you are pretty much getting the same response....

Draft is important, if it wasn't Ireland would still have a job...

Not true, there are more agreeing than a year ago, and there are better posts for the most part.

When you look at Ireland's drafts, it is not like he was taking big reaches in the top two rounds like an Oakland. They just did not work out as Phans had hoped for. IMO, that was just the luck of the draw, and not much on him.

There are over 1M "draft guru's" taking their shots at the draft, and everyone knows better than the GM. It does not matter that all NFL teams have full time staff that do this for a living, that each team goes back to a player's junior high school to check players out, that they have been watching film and in person games since their freshman year, and have personal contact with potential picks. None of that matters.

Posters know better in watching some games where the player played, and most certainly overvalue the draft.

 

[So Be]

You definitely have strong feelings on the subject.
One thing I think people forget is that the draft fills positions all over the roster. Yes, you may only get 2-3 starters but you also get role players that are very important to every team. Everyone will miss on some draft picks, but a good portion of free agents are busts, too.
In the late rounds you get guys that might only do one thing well. The key is utilizing that one thing to help you win. Good teams do that and it's why the draft is so important.

I do, and have the same feelings on the draft being held before FA, which will never happen with the NFLPA wanting vets to have a big advantage. We have no idea who will be there in the draft, and have to deal with FA's to fill needs when we may have done something completely different IF the draft were first.

I agree with you on the rest. We lost some VG special team players last year, and did not replace them via last years draft. Some point to Rizzi's coaching, which is silly. He was great for 3 years but, all of a sudden got stupid when he did not have the players to coach. This hurt us in blocking and tackling on all returns. We pretty much SUCKED, and went from top 7 to 25 or so.

 

[So Be]

I just want to pop in and say that this thread is awful, the title says it all.

Ya know, Ive read many a good posts from you but, now you came up with nonsense, saying nothing, and that you wanted to just pop in to say nothing. Is there a point here I'm missing? Why bother?

 

[FSU Truth]

Not true, there are more agreeing than a year ago, and there are better posts for the most part.

When you look at Ireland's drafts, it is not like he was taking big reaches in the top two rounds like an Oakland. They just did not work out as Phans had hoped for. IMO, that was just the luck of the draw, and not much on him.

There are over 1M "draft guru's" taking their shots at the draft, and everyone knows better than the GM. It does not matter that all NFL teams have full time staff that do this for a living, that each team goes back to a player's junior high school to check players out, that they have been watching film and in person games since their freshman year, and have personal contact with potential picks. None of that matters.

Posters know better in watching some games where the player played, and most certainly overvalue the draft.

Wouldn't a rarity be worth more or have a high value?

If something is difficult to find, as in a good draft pick(s), wouldn't that increase the value of doing well at it? You are trying to devalue you something because you assume that because some players that are drafted never pan out that drafting as a whole is nothing more then educated guess work, yet we have evidence of teams who do draft well have more success and have a more solid foundation.

Drafting has been and will continue to be (under the cap era) the backbone to building a successful team...while a majority of teams may hit "par for the coarse" when it come to drafting, it should be noted when teams do much better at it as that rarity is leading to their success...the draft is valued highly because being good at it is rare and things that are rare have always carried more weight.

 

[So Be]

Wouldn't a rarity be worth more or have a high value?

If something is difficult to find, as in a good draft pick(s), wouldn't that increase the value of doing well at it? You are trying to devalue you something because you assume that because some players that are drafted never pan out that drafting as a whole is nothing more then educated guess work, yet we have evidence of teams who do draft well have more success and have a more solid foundation.

Drafting has been and will continue to be (under the cap era) the backbone to building a successful team...while a majority of teams may hit "par for the coarse" when it come to drafting, it should be noted when teams do much better at it as that rarity is leading to their success...the draft is valued highly because being good at it is rare and things that are rare have always carried more weight.

Very well said, and mostly agree. However, I still must contend that, for the most part, it is luck to get a star vs a VG starter, vs a good starter. Overstating on the Seattle deal with Wilson. Did all 32 teams, MANY with QB need, all screw up in over two rounds, including Seattle, or was it just some dumb luck? Same is true on many picks.

 

[FSU Truth]

Very well said, and mostly agree. However, I still must contend that, for the most part, it is luck to get a star vs a VG starter, vs a good starter. Overstating on the Seattle deal with Wilson. Did all 32 teams, MANY with QB need, all screw up in over two rounds, including Seattle, or was it just some dumb luck? Same is true on many picks.

If Wilson was the only guy they hit on, then you could say dumb luck, but a majority of their star players (Sherman, Chancllor, Baldwin, Thomas, Mebane, Wagner) were guys they drafted...

 

[So Be]

If Wilson was the only guy they hit on, then you could say dumb luck, but a majority of their star players (Sherman, Chancllor, Baldwin, Thomas, Mebane, Wagner) were guys they drafted...

And they did a FABULOUS JOB, as opposed to the norm.

 

[Awsi Dooger]

IMO, if you approach the draft in conventional fashion there's too much of a need to be exceptional. Not many general managers are exceptional.

As I posted last year, I would always try to draft as often as possible within the top 40. That's where the dropoff generally takes place. I see more wild swings late in the second round than seemingly the rest of the draft combined. I think teams overvalue 3rd and 4th round picks in comparison to the ability to use those choice to move up and grab premium players in the top 40. I would prioritize the top of the draft and then take my chances again beginning the 5th round. Jeff Ireland last year gave up #42 as if it didn't matter. I would have tried everything in my power to get Oakland to agree to #54 while throwing in extra choices deeper in the draft. Then depending on who was there I might have tried to bump somewhat higher than #42 for my second pick.

Now, moving down within the top 40 is tricky. That requires more guts, and a great sense of the depth of the draft. In some cases if you volunteer to move down from 19 to 30, for example, you might not lose much, but in other years it means sacrificing a great player who probably deserves to be in the top 10 or 15.

I get sick of picks like Will Davis and Dallas Thomas, partially because they are so typical within those rounds. Lots of forced garbage once you drop below #40.

 

[rcasellas64]

I would love to trade our #1 pick to Houston for JJ Watt. With the 3-4 defense, and Houston possibly drafting Clowney, he is expendable. Love to see that move. We can draft OL in later rounds, but can't get an impact player like Watt in 1st round.

 

[So Be]

IMO, if you approach the draft in conventional fashion there's too much of a need to be exceptional. Not many general managers are exceptional.

As I posted last year, I would always try to draft as often as possible within the top 40. That's where the dropoff generally takes place. I see more wild swings late in the second round than seemingly the rest of the draft combined. I think teams overvalue 3rd and 4th round picks in comparison to the ability to use those choice to move up and grab premium players in the top 40. I would prioritize the top of the draft and then take my chances again beginning the 5th round. Jeff Ireland last year gave up #42 as if it didn't matter. I would have tried everything in my power to get Oakland to agree to #54 while throwing in extra choices deeper in the draft. Then depending on who was there I might have tried to bump somewhat higher than #42 for my second pick.

Now, moving down within the top 40 is tricky. That requires more guts, and a great sense of the depth of the draft. In some cases if you volunteer to move down from 19 to 30, for example, you might not lose much, but in other years it means sacrificing a great player who probably deserves to be in the top 10 or 15.

I get sick of picks like Will Davis and Dallas Thomas, partially because they are so typical within those rounds. Lots of forced garbage once you drop below #40.

Agreed, the first and second rounds are where you expect to get your star power. However, the "elite" GM's also depend on some luck. I don't know if you remember Bobby Beathard who put together the VG Redskins teams with Gibbs, before going to SD. He was recognized as the best GM in the game before the Leaf pick at #2 which cost him his job, as per him last week on M&M.

Fast forward to Ozzie Newsome, recognized as the best today. He had the Big QB who could throw 50 yards from his knees (can't even recall his name) as the highest rated player ever but, did not draft him.

Just a couple of examples of bad and good luck.

 

[marinotoclayton]

Agreed, the first and second rounds are where you expect to get your star power. However, the "elite" GM's also depend on some luck. I don't know if you remember Bobby Beathard who put together the VG Redskins teams with Gibbs, before going to SD. He was recognized as the best GM in the game before the Leaf pick at #2 which cost him his job, as per him last week on M&M.

Fast forward to Ozzie Newsome, recognized as the best today. He had the Big QB who could throw 50 yards from his knees (can't even recall his name) as the highest rated player ever but, did not draft him.

Just a couple of examples of bad and good luck.

I believe Dolphins had Bobby Beatherd beforehis redskins stint. And I believe he built alot of our teamS in the 70's

In 1972, Beathard was named director of player personnel for the Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins won the following two Super Bowls