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QB Debate from Another Perspective

SF Dolphin Fan said:
I know everyone wants a young quarterback who could develop into a quality starter. I feel the same way. However, just for argument sake let's say Miami signs Couch and he does a 180, showing the skills that made him the top pick over guys like Culpepper and McNabb in 1999. Granted, Couch probably wouldn't even see much of the field this year if he is signed -- but let's say he starts the final five games with a qb rating of about 90, makes good decisions, shows no ill effects from his shoulder injury etc. Do you still draft the young gun, or do you instead take one of the top offensive tackles in a year where there could be about six quality (maybe franchise) tackles? The Dolphins offensive line is clearly as big a problem as the quarterback, although they no doubt go hand in hand. And, as of now, only Leinart would qualify as a potential franchise quarterback from the collegiate seniors. There's no telling if Jacobs, Leak, Young or some of the others will even come out.
Okay for the sake of argument-Couch is signed, eventually starts and makes everyone forget all about our QB woes of recent years. If this should happen, then I believe it's safe to say that our O-line would have shown marked improvement, as well. Obviously no QB is going to do well unless the O-line gives him time to make the plays (and does their part in making our running game respectable.) So assuming all of this takes place; IMO Saban will look to draft defense in the 1st rd. Either a LB or a safety. I think he would look to take a QB later on. I also think if Saban were to draft offense 1st he would look more towards WR.
 
There are a lot of if in your thread. But if Couch can become a quality Qb Then we would have the benefit of having a Qb with NFL starting experience. He blames his poor play on arm injury, so if the surgery fixed the problems then he should be able to compete for the starting job. I think that one of our QBs is going to surprise us once the O line comes together.
 
I'm pulling for Brees to have a big year. San Diego simply can't afford to keep both he and Rivers past this year, everyone knows that. If Brees again does well this season, SD will resign him to a big contract and let Rivers shop his services. Miami can then give a 1st rounder and whatever else it may take to get a young QB, who is already signed and ready to lead. What young QB out there either as a FA or in next years draft would you rather have then Rivers? To me this is the best case scenario, other then Feeley turning into a star (hold your laughs).
 
Sign Couch let him learn the system and build his arm back up over the coarse of the year.then draft the best available LT in the 1st rnd then same with QB in the 2nd:up:
 
late again said:
Okay for the sake of argument-Couch is signed, eventually starts and makes everyone forget all about our QB woes of recent years. If this should happen, then I believe it's safe to say that our O-line would have shown marked improvement, as well. Obviously no QB is going to do well unless the O-line gives him time to make the plays (and does their part in making our running game respectable.) So assuming all of this takes place; IMO Saban will look to draft defense in the 1st rd. Either a LB or a safety. I think he would look to take a QB later on. I also think if Saban were to draft offense 1st he would look more towards WR.

Good argument regarding the play of the offensive line. Obviously, there is a direct correlation there. Saban would love that scenario to play out, I would think, because then he could continue to build a championship defense.
 
Canadianfishfan said:
yes you still get a young gun.. i believe we'll be drafting a QB regardless of what happens this year.


I agree...we get a qb no matter what.
 
Fineas said:
My view is that if you think there's a young QB who is truly special, you take him almost without regard to what you have. If you don't think there is something special there, i.e., a Marino, Manning, Montana, Brady, etc., don't bother. Most 1st round QBs never pan out. Many flop horribly. You don't just take a guy because you have a need and he's the best one available. Those guys will take a long time to develop, if ever.

This sounds good at first glance, but in practice it doesn't readily answer the question. One could argue that that's what this team has been doing for the past 5-7 years, and -- finding no such draft QB -- this has left us relying on the likes of Fiedler, Lucas, Griese, Feeley and Frerotte. Marino and Manning were first-round picks whose athletic and field-leadership qualities were never really questioned. Montana was discovered, what, 27 years ago(?) and an undervalued ultimate-franchise QB like Brady is the only such diamond-in-the-rough I can think of over the past decade.

We almost certainly need to develop a quarterback or two from the draft over the next few years, and unfortunately, I suspect that we will NOT have the luxury of seeing "something really special" in the player. Instead, I think Linehan, Saban and Mueller will have to identify a player who has the potential to be developed into what we need.

Is this the course I most prefer? No. But there really don't seem to be enough recognizably-decent QB's coming out to fill the needs of a 32 team league. Even if 3 such QB's come out every year, that doesn't even grant each team access to one once every ten years.:(
 
SF Dolphin Fan said:
I know everyone wants a young quarterback who could develop into a quality starter. I feel the same way. However, just for argument sake let's say Miami signs Couch and he does a 180, showing the skills that made him the top pick over guys like Culpepper and McNabb in 1999. Granted, Couch probably wouldn't even see much of the field this year if he is signed -- but let's say he starts the final five games with a qb rating of about 90, makes good decisions, shows no ill effects from his shoulder injury etc. Do you still draft the young gun, or do you instead take one of the top offensive tackles in a year where there could be about six quality (maybe franchise) tackles? The Dolphins offensive line is clearly as big a problem as the quarterback, although they no doubt go hand in hand. And, as of now, only Leinart would qualify as a potential franchise quarterback from the collegiate seniors. There's no telling if Jacobs, Leak, Young or some of the others will even come out.

I would say, from a purely theoretical standpoint, yes, we draft a "young gun". Wether that happens or not, or at what point in the draft, is soleley based on this year's talent and how they perfom. I say we still draft one because, even if we sign Couch and he does get good, he has been in the league for some years now, plus his injury history, we gotta think reliabilty and durability. Drafting a young guy, even if Couch, or even Feeley or frerotte, hell even SAGE, performs well lets us have an able QB to at least give us a shot at winning games, which lets the rookie QB be able to sit and learn, as opposed to being tossed in right away, which for most, is too soon.
 
P4E said:
This sounds good at first glance, but in practice it doesn't readily answer the question. One could argue that that's what this team has been doing for the past 5-7 years, and -- finding no such draft QB -- this has left us relying on the likes of Fiedler, Lucas, Griese, Feeley and Frerotte. Marino and Manning were first-round picks whose athletic and field-leadership qualities were never really questioned. Montana was discovered, what, 27 years ago(?) and an undervalued ultimate-franchise QB like Brady is the only such diamond-in-the-rough I can think of over the past decade.

We almost certainly need to develop a quarterback or two from the draft over the next few years, and unfortunately, I suspect that we will NOT have the luxury of seeing "something really special" in the player. Instead, I think Linehan, Saban and Mueller will have to identify a player who has the potential to be developed into what we need.

Is this the course I most prefer? No. But there really don't seem to be enough recognizably-decent QB's coming out to fill the needs of a 32 team league. Even if 3 such QB's come out every year, that doesn't even grant each team access to one once every ten years.:(


Not only are first round pick QBs not guaranteed to succeed, the odds are strongly against it. Even if you limit it to top 10 first round picks, the success rate is pretty horrible. Over the last 15 years, 20 QBs have been taken in the top 10. Five have been good: Manning, McNair, Bledsoe, NcNabb and Vick. Four could be considered mediocre at best: KCollins, Jeff George, CPalmer and BLeftwich. Two are two early to tell, but did nothing impressive last year: Mannign and Rivers. The other nine were horrific failures: Akili Smith, Ryan Leaf, Heath Shuler, Rick Mirer, David Klingler, Andre Ware, Trent Dilfer (well, maybe just sub-mediocre), Tim Couch and Joey Harrington (maybe too early to say horrific).


In other words, the "success" rate is about 25%, with a 25% chance of a mediocre Jay Fiedler/AJ Feeley quality QB, and about a 50% chance of a complete abortion. And again, that's looking at top 10 picks. If you go further down, you start to include the Jim Druckenmillers, Dan McGwires, Cade McNowns . . . . hey, wait a minute, didn't all of these guys have a cup of coffee with the Dolphins? As much as we like to grouse about John Avery, Eric Kumerow, Billy Milner, etc., none of those guys can hold a candle to Leaf, ASmith, Shuler, Klinger or Ware as collossal draft busts.

If the guy isn't "special," don't waste a 1st round pick on him, or even a 2nd. Once you exclude the special guys, you can get adequate guys without spending the picks. In my view, Manning, McNabb, Brady, Culpepper and Favre are special. After that, you're looking at a fairly large group of guys that can succeed in the right system with the right talent around him, but are also capable of stinking up the joint if the conditions aren't right. Think about all the QBs over the years that have had one or two Pro Bowl years amidst a career of extreme mediocrity (or worse): Gus (1997), Jeff Blake, Kerry Collins, Trent Dilfer, Doug Flutie, Brian Griese, Brad Johnson, Testaverde, Rich Gannon, Trent Green, Ken O'Brien, Mark Rypien, Bobby Hebert, Jeff Hostetler, Steve Bono, Chris Chandler, Steve Buerlein, Elvis Grbac, Kordell Stewart, Jay Schroaeder, Wade Wilson, Dave Krieg, Don Majkowski . . .

One of the biggest problems with investing a high draft pick in a QB is that you have to pay through the nose for them, thus tying yourself up under the cap for years to come. You also feel committed to going with them even if it becomes clear early on that they are not the answer. In the meantime, you have a bad QB and a bad team.
 
P4E said:
This sounds good at first glance, but in practice it doesn't readily answer the question. One could argue that that's what this team has been doing for the past 5-7 years, and -- finding no such draft QB -- this has left us relying on the likes of Fiedler, Lucas, Griese, Feeley and Frerotte. Marino and Manning were first-round picks whose athletic and field-leadership qualities were never really questioned. Montana was discovered, what, 27 years ago(?) and an undervalued ultimate-franchise QB like Brady is the only such diamond-in-the-rough I can think of over the past decade.

We almost certainly need to develop a quarterback or two from the draft over the next few years, and unfortunately, I suspect that we will NOT have the luxury of seeing "something really special" in the player. Instead, I think Linehan, Saban and Mueller will have to identify a player who has the potential to be developed into what we need.

Is this the course I most prefer? No. But there really don't seem to be enough recognizably-decent QB's coming out to fill the needs of a 32 team league. Even if 3 such QB's come out every year, that doesn't even grant each team access to one once every ten years.:(

Great post. I think what a lot of people fail to realize is how important it is to develop a quarterback and for the quarterback to be in the right system. So many high draft picks are expected to carry a team right away and the team often has inferior talent. Throw them in and most sink instead of swim and their confidence is often shot. That's why I think so many qb's that are successful in the league have sat on the bench and learned before coming into the action.

Bottom line, though, you are right that it is hard to find a quarterback in the draft and franchise qb's are few and far between -- maybe only 5 in the NFL right now.
 
Fineas said:
If the guy isn't "special," don't waste a 1st round pick on him, or even a 2nd. Once you exclude the special guys, you can get adequate guys without spending the picks. In my view, Manning, McNabb, Brady, Culpepper and Favre are special. After that, you're looking at a fairly large group of guys that can succeed in the right system with the right talent around him, but are also capable of stinking up the joint if the conditions aren't right. Think about all the QBs over the years that have had one or two Pro Bowl years amidst a career of extreme mediocrity (or worse): Gus (1997), Jeff Blake, Kerry Collins, Trent Dilfer, Doug Flutie, Brian Griese, Brad Johnson, Testaverde, Rich Gannon, Trent Green, Ken O'Brien, Mark Rypien, Bobby Hebert, Jeff Hostetler, Steve Bono, Chris Chandler, Steve Buerlein, Elvis Grbac, Kordell Stewart, Jay Schroaeder, Wade Wilson, Dave Krieg, Don Majkowski . . .

One of the biggest problems with investing a high draft pick in a QB is that you have to pay through the nose for them, thus tying yourself up under the cap for years to come. You also feel committed to going with them even if it becomes clear early on that they are not the answer. In the meantime, you have a bad QB and a bad team.

I agree. I think most fans want to believe that you can go out and find a franchise quarterback -- spend a #1 pick and there he is -- but the fact is some teams have never had one despite drafting high and having many opportunities. Like you said, and I agree, there are only a handful in the NFL right now, five off your list which I think is right on. There are a few that could get there like Brees and Roethlisberger if they play like last year and you never know about the rookies. That's why I wonder if building the line and the talent around the qb is the better way to go. There are a lot of quarterbacks who could succeed if they have the coaching and talent around them as you show with the list of journey men types who did well in a particular system.
 
Fineas said:
Not only are first round pick QBs not guaranteed to succeed, the odds are strongly against it. Even if you limit it to top 10 first round picks, the success rate is pretty horrible. Over the last 15 years, 20 QBs have been taken in the top 10. Five have been good: Manning, McNair, Bledsoe, NcNabb and Vick. Four could be considered mediocre at best: KCollins, Jeff George, CPalmer and BLeftwich. Two are two early to tell, but did nothing impressive last year: Mannign and Rivers. The other nine were horrific failures: Akili Smith, Ryan Leaf, Heath Shuler, Rick Mirer, David Klingler, Andre Ware, Trent Dilfer (well, maybe just sub-mediocre), Tim Couch and Joey Harrington (maybe too early to say horrific).


In other words, the "success" rate is about 25%, with a 25% chance of a mediocre Jay Fiedler/AJ Feeley quality QB, and about a 50% chance of a complete abortion. And again, that's looking at top 10 picks. If you go further down, you start to include the Jim Druckenmillers, Dan McGwires, Cade McNowns . . . . hey, wait a minute, didn't all of these guys have a cup of coffee with the Dolphins? As much as we like to grouse about John Avery, Eric Kumerow, Billy Milner, etc., none of those guys can hold a candle to Leaf, ASmith, Shuler, Klinger or Ware as collossal draft busts.

If the guy isn't "special," don't waste a 1st round pick on him, or even a 2nd. Once you exclude the special guys, you can get adequate guys without spending the picks. In my view, Manning, McNabb, Brady, Culpepper and Favre are special. After that, you're looking at a fairly large group of guys that can succeed in the right system with the right talent around him, but are also capable of stinking up the joint if the conditions aren't right. Think about all the QBs over the years that have had one or two Pro Bowl years amidst a career of extreme mediocrity (or worse): Gus (1997), Jeff Blake, Kerry Collins, Trent Dilfer, Doug Flutie, Brian Griese, Brad Johnson, Testaverde, Rich Gannon, Trent Green, Ken O'Brien, Mark Rypien, Bobby Hebert, Jeff Hostetler, Steve Bono, Chris Chandler, Steve Buerlein, Elvis Grbac, Kordell Stewart, Jay Schroaeder, Wade Wilson, Dave Krieg, Don Majkowski . . .

One of the biggest problems with investing a high draft pick in a QB is that you have to pay through the nose for them, thus tying yourself up under the cap for years to come. You also feel committed to going with them even if it becomes clear early on that they are not the answer. In the meantime, you have a bad QB and a bad team.

Upon reading this very accurate analysis... and combining it with what you presented in the earlier post... I see right where you're coming from, and I agree entirely.

Setting aside fan fantasies, it seems that our QB of the future is most likely -- and perhaps preferably -- going to be a 2nd, 3rd or 4th-rounder. Now... where did we put that list of QB's Linehan has had a hand in developing?
 
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