Question

[inFINSible]

Even under the difficult circumstances a QB can be evaluated. You don't expect him to put up great stats, but you can identify whether he has a feel for the game. There is a human tendency to assume that more information is more accurate. The fact is that's not always true. In many cases it's less accurate. You just need to be able to identify the most relevant predictors. The example that comes to mind is from outside the football world.

Cook County Hospital was trying to find a better way to predict which ER patients were really having heart attacks and which should be sent home. There is a fairly large list of factors that contribute to the likelihood of having a heart attack (EKG results, history of diabetes, age, etc.). Making assessments on all of these would often take as long as three days (which of course is very expensive). The Chief administrator there developed a 3 question questionaire covering what he felt were the most relevant predictors. Over two years they compared the accuracy of the diagnosis by the doctors using the old method and that of the questionaire. The result was that the doctors using all their experience and compiled data were far less accurate. The doctors were 70% less accurate at recognizing patients who weren't having heart attacks and between 6% and 20% less at identifying the people who were having heart attacks. In short, having more info didn't help, in fact it hurt.

There are examples like this everywhere and IMO it applies to analyzing QBs. You're looking for that IT factor. That feel for the game. All the other qualities like arm strength, mobility, etc. aren't good predictors. Sure, you need minimum levels of those to perform in the NFL, but almost all NFL QBs have those. When you look for a starter you look for feel. If the guy you have starting lacks that then you keep looking even if he has every other quality in spades.

That's the mistake I believe many of the people who believe in AJ are making. They either say we need more info or they are focused on an irrelevant predictor like arm strength. The relevant predictor is feel and AJ hasn't shown that.

Getting hit, often from different directions, has a tendency to make a QB "feel" badly.

He didn't have this "feel" problem when he was in Philly.

 

[Dudeman]

He didn't have this "feel" problem when he was in Philly.

and? he also didnt show "it" against competition running a system he had played in all his life....he still threw almost as many INTs as TDs-6TDs, 5INTs to be exact, with a QB rating of 75

he beat 4 non-playoff teams, and lost to the 1 playoff team that he started against. He wasn't playing 5 games against the 2002 Bucs D.

 

[Justasportsfan]

Any statue of a qb wouldn't have been able to succeed w/ an O like yours last year. Drew was a perfect example in 03 when we had the worst OL. It doesn't excuse Feeley's mental mistakes he made when he wasn't pressured however, just like Drew wasn't excused for his.

As soon as McNally made our OL decent, Drews mental mistakes still didn't disappear. That is what I saw in Feeley. He reminded me of Drew of 03. GUs? I'm not sure but I think he'll be smarter than Feeley.

 

[inFINSible]

and? he also didnt show "it" against competition running a system he had played in all his life....he still threw almost as many INTs as TDs-6TDs, 5INTs to be exact, with a QB rating of 75

he beat 4 non-playoff teams, and lost to the 1 playoff team that he started against. He wasn't playing 5 games against the 2002 Bucs D.

Those stats aren't good for a second year QB making his first starts in proffessional football??

Maybe you're right, nothing less than stellar stats should ever be acceptable.

Experience and maturity should never enter into the equation.

 

[inFINSible]

and? he also didnt show "it" against competition running a system he had played in all his life....he still threw almost as many INTs as TDs-6TDs, 5INTs to be exact, with a QB rating of 75

he beat 4 non-playoff teams, and lost to the 1 playoff team that he started against. He wasn't playing 5 games against the 2002 Bucs D.

BTW, what does your post have to do with what I said about "feel"?

 

[djfresh47]

I've read this board on QB play last year for many threats now..

1. We seem to all agree that OL play was terrible, heck even the OL agrees on that.

2. We all agree that we had no running game...and the stats, that I hate, bares that out..we were 31st..

3. We all agree that the QB's had less than 2 seconds once they planted their foot to throw...that's bared out by the fact that both starting QB's were knocked out for parts of the season with injuries. Our 3rd QB started the last game of the year it was so bad.

Now, my question, if it was that bad and we agree, what did you guys who bash AJ, and say no excuses for him and all that...really expect him to do behind that OL...Better question, what do you guys think P. Manning would have done? Can you guys answer both those questions for me? Thanks in advance...Remember, keep this to what those QBs could do behind last years OL, I already know what you think of AJ, so I'm not interested in that kind of answer...Bonus question, would P. Manning have thrown 49 TD's behind last year's Miami OL?

With Peyton Manning the team probably wins a few more games and the offensive line and running game is much better because he's such a great player. I don't think teams would have put 8 in the box, so that opens up the running game eventhough Sammie Morris is very average, because of the threat of Manning. Peyton probably would not of thrown 49 td passes, but he may of had the team at around 8-8. The coaching staff probably would've had ALOT more confidence because Manning is an accomplished players and Chris Chambers would've had 1000 yds. The offensive line would've looked better because teams would fear to get burned by blitzing Peyton because he is such a great player. The team did play in a bunch of close games where costly turnovers may of cost the team victories, so the difference between winning and losing those games could've been Manning.

Now onto what I expected out of Aj, alot more than what we got. I didn't expect defensive players to try and attack him as I believe Sam Madision did, might of even been on a nationally televised game, but I could be wrong. I didn't expect him to look like a "deer in headlights," which even the people who believe he has alot of potential would basically agree he looked like. I expected him to win the job rather than the Qb carousel that went on last year, and he did not do that. You are simply eliminating Aj from being part of the problem, and he was a huge part of the problem with last year.

Here's a BONUS Question for you, Would the Dolphins of scored more than 10 pts with Manning at Qb vs a Cleveland team that another 1st year starting Qb torched for 58 pts?

 

[Yoda]

I've read this board on QB play last year for many threats now..

1. We seem to all agree that OL play was terrible, heck even the OL agrees on that.

2. We all agree that we had no running game...and the stats, that I hate, bares that out..we were 31st..

3. We all agree that the QB's had less than 2 seconds once they planted their foot to throw...that's bared out by the fact that both starting QB's were knocked out for parts of the season with injuries. Our 3rd QB started the last game of the year it was so bad.

Now, my question, if it was that bad and we agree, what did you guys who bash AJ, and say no excuses for him and all that...really expect him to do behind that OL...Better question, what do you guys think P. Manning would have done? Can you guys answer both those questions for me? Thanks in advance...Remember, keep this to what those QBs could do behind last years OL, I already know what you think of AJ, so I'm not interested in that kind of answer...Bonus question, would P. Manning have thrown 49 TD's behind last year's Miami OL?

Obvious the answer is.........make AJ Feeley better, still does not.

 

[rafael]

Getting hit, often from different directions, has a tendency to make a QB "feel" badly.

He didn't have this "feel" problem when he was in Philly.

Actually, I thought he did. AJ executed plays when his 1st or 2nd read was there, but he didn't show "feel" when the play broke down. I only saw two of his Philly games (and the one against SF when he came in at the end) and he didn't show "feel" in those.

 

[inFINSible]

With Peyton Manning the team probably wins a few more games and the offensive line and running game is much better because he's such a great player. I don't think teams would have put 8 in the box, so that opens up the running game eventhough Sammie Morris is very average, because of the threat of Manning. Peyton probably would not of thrown 49 td passes, but he may of had the team at around 8-8. The coaching staff probably would've had ALOT more confidence because Manning is an accomplished players and Chris Chambers would've had 1000 yds. The offensive line would've looked better because teams would fear to get burned by blitzing Peyton because he is such a great player. The team did play in a bunch of close games where costly turnovers may of cost the team victories, so the difference between winning and losing those games could've been Manning.

nevermind that one of the best QBs in the game only could have gotten four more wins out of last years' team, I'm just going to ask you one question.

Who would Peyton have been throwing to, in order to beat the blitz?? (remember, there were no hot routes in this offense)

Now onto what I expected out of Aj, alot more than what we got. I didn't expect defensive players to try and attack him as I believe Sam Madision did, might of even been on a nationally televised game, but I could be wrong. I didn't expect him to look like a "deer in headlights," which even the people who believe he has alot of potential would basically agree he looked like. I expected him to win the job rather than the Qb carousel that went on last year, and he did not do that. You are simply eliminating Aj from being part of the problem, and he was a huge part of the problem with last year.

I expected more also. After seeing and subsequently learning how dysfunctional the offense and the entire team was last season, I can certainly understand why he would look so much worse than the QB that I saw on the Philly game tapes.

Here's a BONUS Question for you, Would the Dolphins of scored more than 10 pts with Manning at Qb vs a Cleveland team that another 1st year starting Qb torched for 58 pts?

Yes....probably. What do I win?

 

[Dudeman]

BTW, what does your post have to do with what I said about "feel"?

he certainly didnt have the "feel" you're describing....only 1 more TD than INT against Defenses that had nothing to play for because their teams weren't in the playoffs? he didn't show a "feel" for the game with stats like those

 

[inFINSible]

Actually, I thought he did. AJ executed plays when his 1st or 2nd read was there, but he didn't show "feel" when the play broke down. I only saw two of his Philly games (and the one against SF when he came in at the end) and he didn't show "feel" in those.

So what you're trying to say is he isn't a scrambling, playmaker that makes something out of nothing, or that he has no feel for the rush?

 

[Yoda]

So what you're trying to say is he isn't a scrambling, playmaker that makes something out of nothing, or that he has no feel for the rush?

.........a little of both the truth is........

 

[inFINSible]

he certainly didnt have the "feel" you're describing....only 1 more TD than INT against Defenses that had nothing to play for because their teams weren't in the playoffs? he didn't show a "feel" for the game with stats like those

I'm sorry, I didn't know stats show "feel".

Did you happen to see those games??

 

[Dudeman]

Those stats aren't good for a second year QB making his first starts in proffessional football??

Maybe you're right, nothing less than stellar stats should ever be acceptable.

Experience and maturity should never enter into the equation.

yes, i expect a perfect QB rating every time he plays


AJ grew up in the WCO....all throughout college, and with the Eagles....

those stats are nothing to write home about, and certainly nowhere near showing that he has a "feel" for the game

 

[inFINSible]

yes, i expect a perfect QB rating every time he plays



AJ grew up in the WCO....all throughout college, and with the Eagles....

those stats are nothing to write home about, and certainly nowhere near showing that he has a "feel" for the game

Second year player, 1st time starting....get real.