Question

[gofins]

Even under the difficult circumstances a QB can be evaluated. You don't expect him to put up great stats, but you can identify whether he has a feel for the game. There is a human tendency to assume that more information is more accurate. The fact is that's not always true. In many cases it's less accurate. You just need to be able to identify the most relevant predictors. The example that comes to mind is from outside the football world.

Cook County Hospital was trying to find a better way to predict which ER patients were really having heart attacks and which should be sent home. There is a fairly large list of factors that contribute to the likelihood of having a heart attack (EKG results, history of diabetes, age, etc.). Making assessments on all of these would often take as long as three days (which of course is very expensive). The Chief administrator there developed a 3 question questionaire covering what he felt were the most relevant predictors. Over two years they compared the accuracy of the diagnosis by the doctors using the old method and that of the questionaire. The result was that the doctors using all their experience and compiled data were far less accurate. The doctors were 70% less accurate at recognizing patients who weren't having heart attacks and between 6% and 20% less at identifying the people who were having heart attacks. In short, having more info didn't help, in fact it hurt.

There are examples like this everywhere and IMO it applies to analyzing QBs. You're looking for that IT factor. That feel for the game. All the other qualities like arm strength, mobility, etc. aren't good predictors. Sure, you need minimum levels of those to perform in the NFL, but almost all NFL QBs have those. When you look for a starter you look for feel. If the guy you have starting lacks that then you keep looking even if he has every other quality in spades.

That's the mistake I believe many of the people who believe in AJ are making. They either say we need more info or they are focused on an irrelevant predictor like arm strength. The relevant predictor is feel and AJ hasn't shown that.

So with all of the iformation that was collected, you feel that A.J. sucks:shakeno:

 

[djfresh47]

nevermind that one of the best QBs in the game only could have gotten four more wins out of last years' team, I'm just going to ask you one question.

Who would Peyton have been throwing to, in order to beat the blitz?? (remember, there were no hot routes in this offense)

I expected more also. After seeing and subsequently learning how dysfunctional the offense and the entire team was last season, I can certainly understand why he would look so much worse than the QB that I saw on the Philly game tapes.

Yes....probably. What do I win?

Obviously with Qb who seems to have a higher football IQ, and the coaching staff would have more confidence in I believe there would be hot routes. I would rather have Peyton Manning running the whole offense last year rather than the group of coaches that were in Miami. You win the chance to probably see the same arguements untill either Aj or Gus solidify the Qb position, and as a bonus as soon as one of the Qb struggles in the regular season you'll probably see a bunch of "Gus/Aj sucks" threads.

 

[djfresh47]

and you Feeley supporters are ignoring the fact that Linehan WOULD NEVER dump on a QB ruining his confidence before a training camp battle.

Everybody knows AJ has a strong arm.....so what? so do Sage and Gus....we have 3 strong-armed QBs, 2 of which are damn near statues


and another thing, nobody has said he won't get a shot....well, maybe one, and he hails from the 49th state....but thats besides the point

I honestly wonder if there's going to be a mass cult-like suicide if Gus starts. It absolutely baffles the mind that so many on here are AJ or bust, and so unwilling to see Gus start if he proves to be the better QB

I think the idea to start Aj regardless is that he could possibly be the long-term solution for the team and that Gus would obviously be a stop-gap Qb. I wanna see the best player start, and if Aj is not good enough to beat out a career backup than he'll probably never be a starter in the league.

 

[Dolphinlife]

Good question and i really think that no matter who was the qb last year it wouldnt have mattered. sure peyton manning would have done better than feeley but i really feel that this year is the true test for feeley. Obviously we will have a better line and more threats if Boston stays healthy and the addition of Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams coming back if he does. Bottom I am really in AJs corner and hope he succeeds this season

 

[rafael]

So what you're trying to say is he isn't a scrambling, playmaker that makes something out of nothing, or that he has no feel for the rush?

I'm saying he lacks feel for the game. He doesn't have to be a scrambler. Brady is slow as h*ll, but he makes plays when things break down. QBs with "feel" can anticipate which players will come open as the play develops. Marino was a horrible scrambler, but he could feel the rush. Many QBs have strong arms, but the ones that have "feel" instinctively know when to use touch. AJ doesn't feel the rush, he doesn't anticipate how plays develop and he doesn't know when to use touch.

 

[MDFINFAN]

Here's B. Farve first year ratings with GB.

G GS Att Comp Pct Yards YPA Lg TD Int Tkld 20+ 40+ Rate
15 13 471 302 64.1 3227 6.85 76 18 13 34/208 30 9 85.3

Record 9-7, the year before 4-12 sound familiar.

This is the year they got a OL...B. Farve had time and played a lot better.

Brett was a first round draft pick of the Atlanta Falcons in1991 and was traded to the Green Bay Packers in 1992 The Green Bay fans thought the coach was nuts! Brett's career as an NFL player had a rocky start, but as he matured in the game and learned from his mistakes, Brett became a better football player. He has achieved great honors in the NFL. He was the first quarterback to set a Green Bay and NFC record for the most touchdown passes in a single season. He has become one of the greatest quarterbacks to play the game.

 

[rafael]

So with all of the iformation that was collected, you feel that A.J. sucks:shakeno:

Not exactly. I feel he'll never be good enough.

 

[rafael]

4-1 as a starter with a good surrounding cast in Philly. And he has a great arm. Consider this quote from Linehan:
"He's certainly got some exceptional talent as far as throwing the ball," Linehan said.
http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=2087829

People pick and choose what they want to hear. Everyone around here raves about how good Linehan is. Well, he thinks Feeley's throwing talents are "exceptional," but people choose to ignore that and continue to dump on Feeley. The guy deserves a shot with a better system and better surrounding talent.

Linehan is right. AJ has great ability to throw the ball. The problem is he lacks great ability to know when and where to throw the ball.

 

[MDFINFAN]

My assessment of P. Manning behind last year's OL.

1. P. Man isn't a running QB
2. P. Man looks smart because he has plenty of time to throw behind that OL.
3. NE exposed P. Man, as we did, when he's rushed he's avg. period. Same with Brady. Except their O do have hot routes, that helps a lot.
4. I don't think we would have won anymore games with P. M. in the same starting time period as AJ..P. Manning in his 2nd year with Indy, did not scare the fins. E. James did.
5. Do you guys remember how many years it took Indy under Manning to get respect? Hint: It wasn't his first 3 years.
6. Having said all that, P. Manning with his knowlege of the game, running our O last year wouldn't have done any better than AJ, he may have had more INT's because he tends to force balls when pressured.
D. Marino when pressure had a hard time...but if he had 3+ seconds you were in trouble.

 

[larfo2224]

Your right and thank god that last year is over. I think AJ has a good chance to improve this year if he has the time to read the field. Any quarterback would have been decimated behind the line we put on the field last year, and no, Peyton Manning would not have thrown for even 40 TD's last year. IMHO.

 

[jesusfreak26]

The thing that I don't understand is that the people who are complaining that Rick gave up a second round pick for A.J were also saying we should have drafted a QB. Well as I have said before what makes them think that a Rookie Qb would do any better. Another thing A.J himself was pretty much a Rookie last year. Just because he has been in the league for 4 years doesn't mean he is a All-Star QB. The guy played what 1 game n college, 5 games with Philly, and 8 games with us last year since HIGH SCHOOL. Trading a pick is no different then drafting a QB. Just because a QB has first round potential doesn't make him a good NFL QB. AS I have said before I would much rather trade a 2nd rounder for a QB that has shown he has some skills in the NFL than a 1st round pick on a QB that played well in college.

Now to answer your question Dan, John ELway, Steve McNair, or even Micheal Vick wouldn't have played well with the system and line we had last year.

 

[MDFINFAN]

Your right and thank god that last year is over. I think AJ has a good chance to improve this year if he has the time to read the field. Any quarterback would have been decimated behind the line we put on the field last year, and no, Peyton Manning would not have thrown for even 40 TD's last year. IMHO.

Thanks for answering the question. I posted this at work, left for a couple of hours, come back and it's going where I didn't want it too..I just wanted everyone to answer the questions I pose, not give me their thoughts on how good or bad AJ is. We've already had those threads, we all know each other positions on AJ as a player.

 

[MDFINFAN]

My God.......you are unbelieveable!

Feeley this, Feeley that....wah, wah, wah

It seems as if you are out to preach the word of Rick Spielman, and nothing else

o-line this, o-line that.....its getting irritating

AJ will either prove that he has it or not...he wont just be handed the job on a silver platter like you want him to...if not, he's basically done as a Dolphin...Why do you absolutely feel the need to post pro-Feeley/anti-Gus in just about every thread?

If he doesn't beat out Frerotte or Sage, THEN HE DOESNT DESERVE TO START! My god, can you live with that?

Whoever starts will give the Phins the best chance to win. Youth and potential mean nothing.....otherwise Brock would be starting

If AJ starts, then he has proven that he gives them the best chance to win. If not, he'll be gone when his salary jump to 3.5 mil next year

I honestly believe that its YOU who is not ok with the possibility of Gus starting, and that you're trying to get as many people to side with you to make yourself feel better.

Exactly what was your answer to the original questions..you went where I was trying not to go. I've haven advocated anyone..I simply asked a question..are you willing to answer them...If not, you don't have to respond to the thread..I didn't force you too, nor do I have a attitude about who starts.....Thanks in advance. :D

 

[rafael]

Thanks for answering the question. I posted this at work, left for a couple of hours, come back and it's going where I didn't want it too..I just wanted everyone to answer the questions I pose, not give me their thoughts on how good or bad AJ is. We've already had those threads, we all know each other positions on AJ as a player.

Sorry to not directly answer your questions, but you were implying that since others QBs would have done poorly under those circumstances we can't know whether AJ is good or not. I believe that premise is flawed. We can draw conclusions based on what we saw last year. Those conclusions have nothing to do with stats. The most predictive indicator is displaying a feel for the game. QBs with feel show that even under bad conditions. Young showed that. Favre showed that. (and btw I said when they were putting up poor stats) Would they have done better than AJ? Probably, but it's irrelevant. What's predictive is the "feel".

 

[MDFINFAN]

Sorry to not directly answer your questions, but you were implying that since others QBs would have done poorly under those circumstances we can't know whether AJ is good or not. I believe that premise is flawed. We can draw conclusions based on what we saw last year. Those conclusions have nothing to do with stats. The most predictive indicator is displaying a feel for the game. QBs with feel show that even under bad conditions. Young showed that. Favre showed that. (and btw I said when they were putting up poor stats) Would they have done better than AJ? Probably, but it's irrelevant. What's predictive is the "feel".

No problem, I knew a little back and forth would go on, but I was trying to keep it to a minium. The feel, I've read your post on this a number times, while I understand what you're saying, the only part I disagree with in AJ's case, not trying to defend him, but yes want him to start, is that he just hasn't played enough football from college to pro to get that. I'm use he had some of that before he got hurt in College, but since hasn't gotten a chance to regain it. Then again, he may never regain it and fade away. As for AJ, I just didn't see enough of him to really make a judgement. He's ****y with his arm and it cost him big time. I'm hoping he's learned and can put air under the ball at times and zip it at others. I understand he's doing a better job of that in camp. I think that's one thing that Garrett maybe whispering in his ear....Hey AJ, we all know you can zip it...but there's time when you have to flow it..and then can he feel the rush..he had enough practice last year, let's hope he's learned somethings.