Quick All-22 Breakdown (Tua & OC)

[Andyman]

I do ALL-22 breakdowns for the Bills, so I figured i'd snap a few shots for my Miami friends while I was doing the Bills breakdown (since they were playing each other anyway).

First of all, it seems that your OC has an incredible love for slant passes and quick hitters. The likes of which I've never seen before.

The amount of plays where he called a route tree that had EVERY wide receiver at the SAME LEVEL is astounding. Here is an example:

View attachment 87929

As you can see, every receiving option you have is within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage.

There is no spacing here whatsoever.

This happened over and over and over and over and over again while watching the ALL-22. Maybe he thinks Tua needs the short passes to thrive? I dont know. But it's odd.

Now - That is NOT to say that there weren't times when Tua had an open guy downfield.

He had opportunities, he just didn't take advantage of them.

Here is one that may be a walk-in TD if he threw it.

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On this next image, he decides so quickly to throw the 3 yard pass to Gaskin (blue arrow) that he misses Geisicki (red arrow) running wide open with both of his hands in the air.

If he delivers this ball to Geisicki, he may just beat the safety to the pylon for the TD.

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Some of you may think that the pocket was collapsing and he had to get rid of it (because of the camera angle).

Here is the view from the pocket. Looks pretty good by NFL standards.

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This next one I think shows Tua's concern about his own arm strength.

He has a receiving option who beat his guy and is running to the flat.

If Tua has the zip to get this across his body to the 50 yard line out-of-bounds area, it's a guaranteed first down and if the guy can break 1 tackle, possibly a TD.

Instead, Tua takes the careful throw to Gaskin.

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Lastly, little things like missing the open option on this last image is huge.

As soon as he snapped the ball, he had his eyes fixated on the WR to the top of the screen.

Just stared at him the whole time, completely ignoring the open TE that is ready to run for 10+ yards in the flat.

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Tl;dr - The OC is not helping Tua, but Tua also isnt helping himself.

You will note in a couple of those screen shots the pressure already all around him. He’s not ignoring the TE in the flat he’s having to run the other way because Jesse Davis whiffed again right off the snap. I mean look at the screen shot!

I’ll grant you the one Gesicki near the goal is a miss. But the deep shot to Gesicki only looks “wide open”. He’s 40 yards downfield against the sideline and that ball would have to be really launched to get to him before the two defenders close. Gaskin has a lot of green in front of him so I’m not sure that’s a bad decision.

I’ll bet if you do a Tom Brady all 22 you’ll see missed too. They all miss guys open. But when you’re pressured at the rate Tua was against Buffalo can you blame him for looking for the quicker throw?

 

[Sarnics13]

Yea it should have included a few plays that went right to be fair. And the title is misleading since it's selective picks from the all 22

The real issue is that it's a still shot. Gisecki may look open but things are moving so fast that with Eich being blown up by the defender 2ft away, he was on Tua the millisecond after that pic, AND those two are directly in the way of the throw. Context matters, you can't just show a picture and say "look how perfect this situation was in this exact moment in time" without the activity before and after that moment.

Tua may not be the answer and I only care that he is bc he's currently our QB but this am strength argument is total lunacy. There's way too many examples of him launching it 60 yards and as was posted earlier, it's very doubtful that his arm got weaker.

 

[The Beatles]

Yea it should have included a few plays that went right to be fair. And the title is misleading since it's selective picks from the all 22

99% of positive plays were short slants and crossers. Not much to analyze on those. If you have a specific play in mind that you’d like me to show, i’d be happy to do so. But I think if you look over the play-by-play you’ll see i’m right - there’s not much there to analyze.

I thought about including the one long play to Geisicki that worked but it was kinda offensive pass interference and I didn’t want to start an argument on that.

It seems like the admin team is very pro Tua and doesn’t want any criticism of him so i’m kinda typing on egg-shells now - not sure what to say. I think i’ll just stop responding in this thread and if you want to delete it, I understand.

PS, Just so you know, I am equally as critical of the Bills when I do the All-22 Breakdown for them. And Bills fans make just as many excuses when a player makes a bad decision as people on this forum do (“still shots don’t count”, “pocket was collapsing”, etc). I think that’s natural to want to defend a player wearing your colors. So I do completely understand some of the reaction i’m getting and don’t blame anyone at all.

 

[Yessir]

Lmao this an Armando Salguero type breakdown of an all 22. Comedy.

 

[The Beatles]

Asking for a friend... what happened to the mighty Allen and the Bills against the Titans? Why did they lose?

I agree with you that it was strange. Bills had more yards, almost double the first downs, more plays, more time of possession, etc.

Allen was 74% for 300+ yards and 3 TD’s.

It was one of those weird games where one team dominates but somehow still loses.

 

[Lionstone]

You are overcomplicating it. Just focus on Pressure %. That specifically looks at hurried + hits + sacks. The pocket ISN'T collapsing on him as much as other teams.

You can't say Tua is getting rid of the ball quickly because he's facing so much more pressure. He isn't. If he held onto the ball longer, moved in pocket better, he'd face more pressure. Absolutely. But right now he's below average in the pressure he's facing, so he should try to hold onto it longer and let plays develop.

We criticize QBs for locking on to the first read. You are locked on to a statistic without seeing the whole metaphorical field. It is possible that the statistic tells the story you believe it tells, but some reality check stats would ensure it does. For instance, percentage of pass plays where the QB had more than 3.5 seconds to throw. What about size of the pocket in square yards or number of visible escape lanes? My guess is that none of the other QBs face an overall contextual position as poor as Tua faces. I would not be upset if you proved me wrong, so find those stats if you can. For now, I will be skeptical of your analysis of the situation.

 

[Lionstone]

Tua might make it or he might not. All depends. There nothing special about none of these players on dolphins team..if u want be real..fans, owner,gm and coach need be real. We suck right now. So it hard say what Tua potential is..

I doubt that Tua is receiving quality instruction from his QB coach. If my speculation is correct, I think the odds are stacked against him progressing to the quality starter that beats out all competition.

 

[Delvin]

 

[fishfanmiami]

View attachment 87987

You really are a one trick pony for sure. Got something else besides Tua bad

 

[brumdog44]

You don't explain what happened at the end of the 10 second pocket collapses. If it collapses at 10 and he throws it right then his TTT is also 10 seconds on the play. If he avoids pressure then runs around for another 5 seconds then TTT is 15 seconds on that play. TTT can never ever be lower then PT on a given play. Only exemption would be on a sack. In that example TTT wouldn't be calculated. The PT # would be the time the pocket collapses or when he is sacked.

So let's just not use sacks (only 7 sacks for Tua anyway) Throws.
1. PC@1 sec. avoids pressure throw@ 3sec.
2. No PC throw @1sec
3. PC@2 throw @2
4. No PC throw @5
5.No PC throw @1
So now determine the times used for PT and TTT.
1. PT=1 TTT=3
2. PT=1 TTT=1
3. PT=2 TTT=2
4. PT=5 TTT=5
5. PT=1 TTT=1
Now some math.
PT= (1+1+2+5+1)/5=2
TTT=(3+1+2++5+1)5=2.4
You theory of his PT is low because he Passes Quick before pressure maybe be true if we only look at PT. Pass quick before the pocket collapses will absolutely lower PT. But we also have TTT data. Which if PT was being lowered primarily by quick throws then TTT would also have to be lowered as well. Basically the only way to create a gap between a low PT and a high TTT (which are two separate data sets) is to avoid pressure (pocket collapses) and extend the time to throw. Hence Tua has the 2nd highest avoid pressure rate. The problem with your pressure % you keep using is that refers to throws under pressure. An example if the ball is snapped Tua gets pressure in 1 second (pocket collapses) but avoids the pressure and then throws at 3 seconds on the move but no defenders are right on him. Then this is 1 second PT and 3 seconds TTT. Then counts as an avoids pressure but not as a throw under pressure (the pressure % you keep referring to).

You have to understand how all these #s effect the others not just cherry pick certain one. Or just watch Mia play and if you do that no sane person with any knowledge of football would think Tua throw much from a clean pocket. Hence whay are Oline has be grading out like hot garbage all year long.

Good breakdown.

Take a guy like Ken O'Brien....the way he played manipulated the measurements of the time and gave him an illusion of being a pretty good quarterback, especially early in his career. In 1985 he lead the AFC in four categories: qb rating, lowest interception percentage, yards per pass, and......number of times sacked. Simply put, he wouldn't throw the ball away under any circumstances (it's part of the reason qb rating is such a bad stat). Any pressure resulted in a sack. So if you were to measure his average pocket time, it would be low -- because he would not ever avoid pressure to either make a play or to move a little and throw it away. But the truth was the line wasn't as bad as he made them.

 

[brumdog44]

Can't. It was a twitter post from PFF on this site. I don't even have a twitter account. I think you have to pay to get all breakdown stats from PFF.
Look this isn't baseball most advanced stats in football are subjective.

The biggest issue with the pressure is the type. The interior fails like 75% of the time. We can't run at all. Even if they don't get to the QB it limits the ability to climb the pocket. We make almost every DT look like Darnold. Not only the pressure but ther has been so many times a guy went untouched to the QB and not on a blitz but our guys just decided not to block something.

Hey maybe Tua is not the QB but at this point it is so hard to decide. This O sucks. It's missed blocking assignments, crap WR routes, guys Can't line up right. It is just a cluster F out there right now.

I know that PFF had a breakdown earlier that showed Miami lead in league in most 'pass block losses' (inability to maintain the block for a certain time, don't recall what it was) with a 40% failure rate. In other words, 2 of our five linemen per play are giving up pressure for a normal time to throw the ball.

 

[brumdog44]

99% of positive plays were short slants and crossers. Not much to analyze on those. If you have a specific play in mind that you’d like me to show, i’d be happy to do so. But I think if you look over the play-by-play you’ll see i’m right - there’s not much there to analyze.

I thought about including the one long play to Geisicki that worked but it was kinda offensive pass interference and I didn’t want to start an argument on that.

It seems like the admin team is very pro Tua and doesn’t want any criticism of him so i’m kinda typing on egg-shells now - not sure what to say. I think i’ll just stop responding in this thread and if you want to delete it, I understand.

PS, Just so you know, I am equally as critical of the Bills when I do the All-22 Breakdown for them. And Bills fans make just as many excuses when a player makes a bad decision as people on this forum do (“still shots don’t count”, “pocket was collapsing”, etc). I think that’s natural to want to defend a player wearing your colors. So I do completely understand some of the reaction i’m getting and don’t blame anyone at all.

Seems like you have a problem with criticizing your analysis when you seem to think someone disagreeing with your assessment is 'an excuse'. We've pointed out how bad the analysis on the sideline pass was and all you've done is dug in and posted videos of Josh Allen throwing a pass that in no way is comparable to the play in question.

 

[brumdog44]

I agree with you that it was strange. Bills had more yards, almost double the first downs, more plays, more time of possession, etc.

Allen was 74% for 300+ yards and 3 TD’s.

It was one of those weird games where one team dominates but somehow still loses.

Sigh.

 

[E30M3]

99% of positive plays were short slants and crossers. Not much to analyze on those. If you have a specific play in mind that you’d like me to show, i’d be happy to do so. But I think if you look over the play-by-play you’ll see i’m right - there’s not much there to analyze.

I thought about including the one long play to Geisicki that worked but it was kinda offensive pass interference and I didn’t want to start an argument on that.

It seems like the admin team is very pro Tua and doesn’t want any criticism of him so i’m kinda typing on egg-shells now - not sure what to say. I think i’ll just stop responding in this thread and if you want to delete it, I understand.

PS, Just so you know, I am equally as critical of the Bills when I do the All-22 Breakdown for them. And Bills fans make just as many excuses when a player makes a bad decision as people on this forum do (“still shots don’t count”, “pocket was collapsing”, etc). I think that’s natural to want to defend a player wearing your colors. So I do completely understand some of the reaction i’m getting and don’t blame anyone at all.

I see that you quantified the plays with the word positive. Does that mean any incompletions don't count?

 

[Delvin]

You really are a one trick pony for sure. Got something else besides Tua bad

Just showing some stats. Lack of air yards might be due to play calling, receivers, routes, ect...Not all on Tua.