Quinn & Russell vs. Top Defenses | Page 4 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Quinn & Russell vs. Top Defenses

No, I don't think you've understood the crux of the criticism unless you factor in all the points. However, the fact that you consider them insignificant is a non-argument. It it is a rhetorical dismissal, but not an argument, that they could be used to discard any statistical evidence. This is simply not the case.

The fact is, the two points you note do invalidate the study. If you can't see that, I think you are being emotionally defensive of your own post. To stretch the logic - if Brady were playing against Division II, points/game would be meaningless - we understand that clearly. But, then you have conferences that are stronger in some years than others. However, even if 1 is granted as a non-factor, #2 is a factor because of the significantly small # of games you are factoring in. If you had 10 games against 10 common opponents, that would be a better factor. Or, if you had the last two years, even better.

Ultimately, no legitimate statistician in the world would take anything significant from your analysis. I'd have been laughed out of class if I had presented something like that in my old Econometrics classes.

These are equivalent to the arguments that people make about some natural ingredient that will prevent or help cure cancer. There is anecdotal evidence but it does not rise to validity b/c of the lack of consistent statistical data over a large number of people.

And, you also failed to factor in the distinctions between how Auburn played against LSU versus other quarterbacks. Florida and Auburn both had great defenses, playing at home, who rose to the occasion in highly emotional games.

It's a nice try, but your info makes no argument from a statistical viewpoint. 3 games against uncommon opponents with defenses difficult to compare across conferences do not make a valid argument.

It's purely anecdotal. It's interesting. It may or may not say something. But, ultimately not something one can give much credence to.

Film study of each player in these and other games and the game situation play is what will really tell the true story. Statistical evidence can give us robust data - much closer to a good statistic.
Thank you sir. A very informative response.

These inane posts using stats as some form of definitive proof are getting tiresome. It reminds me of my first year stats class when the prof said: "96% of World War 2 vets ate carrots in their lifetime.....x amount of all the men that served in WW2 died..therefore 96% of x died because they ate carrots.."
 
I'm against drafting Brady Quinn, and I don't like this argument for two reasons.

1) I think Russell sucks too. I don't ever talk about him, because there's no chance of us getting him. But to me, you're arguing that Quinn sucks less than Russell. I'd agree with that.

2) Why do stats matter? The only thing that matters are wins and losses, especially for a guy that plays for Notre Dame. I know the supporting cast matters, but I saw Quinn play against tough defenses, and he looked awful. Passes underthrown, making terrible decisions under pressure, etc. I'm sure I'm considered a terrible Dolphins fan for this - but I liked Jay Fiedler. He wouldn't put up gaudy numbers, but he won ballgames and took us to the playoffs with a weak supporting cast on offense. And don't say it was the defense, because that same defense was there when A.J. Feeley was at the helm.

You can't judge a QB by his numbers, you judge him by how he acts under pressure. This is why Marino was a great QB - not because of his numbers. In my opinion, Quinn doesn't have the mental makeup to be a great NFL QB. At his very best, he could be Trent Dilfer. But that's just my humble opinion.
 
You seem to be one of those guys that favor one guy no matter what.
Hey thats still ok, you have a right to your opinion.

Not at all, but I do speak strongly of Quinn because I think he is the right pick for this organization, and I have NEVER pulled for a player this much, not even last year when Leinert, Young, and Cutler were all avalable.

I also speak negatively against Russell because I just don't get it when it comes to him. Granted I'm no "expert", but I watch football religiously, and the kid has shown me nothing that sells me on him being #1 overall, and I honestly don't even think he'd be in round 1 if the Sugar Bowl went any differently. I'm just sick of people putting SO much emphasis on one friggin' game.

Enough with the revisionist history already. Earth to Agent 51: There was no comeback. Notre Dame lost the game!
Even if Notre Dame and Quinn put some numbers on the board late in the game, do you really believe USC was playing a stout defense? I mean seriously, USC at that point could have cared less that ND scored, as long as time ran out.

You're right, just because they didn't win means the comeback was moot and unimpressive.

"Earth to Phinphan", that SHOULD have been a win had the refs not blown that last minute (last SECONDS actually) call, and then what would everyone be saying? They would be saying how great a comeback and win it was, not that "it doesn't matter that he put up all those points in the end, because they still lost and USC wasn't trying. Nice arguement :rolleyes2
 
What a post.

So, at least for now in relation to Jamarcus Russell, I hope people realize that Brady Quinn did better against the best defenses.

I just stumbled upon this site and happened to read the Quinn / Russell vs Defense comparison.

Its funny because these 2 QB's are very much a like - they both are blinding people. Russell is blinding people with his size. Quinn is blinding people with the Notre Dame mystique and having Weiss as a coach.

I think both QB's will have solid careers - Hall of Fame? Not so sure. As far as the draft, even if Quinn is 100 times better then Russell I wouldnt take him if I was the Raiders. Russell is the perfect fit for the men in black. Plus, his arm could make Moss happy and think about the good old days playing in the Metrodome.

God I love the draft...

Kieran
CollegeFootballSearchEngine.com
 
I'm against drafting Brady Quinn, and I don't like this argument for two reasons.

1) I think Russell sucks too. I don't ever talk about him, because there's no chance of us getting him. But to me, you're arguing that Quinn sucks less than Russell. I'd agree with that.

2) Why do stats matter? The only thing that matters are wins and losses, especially for a guy that plays for Notre Dame. I know the supporting cast matters, but I saw Quinn play against tough defenses, and he looked awful. Passes underthrown, making terrible decisions under pressure, etc. I'm sure I'm considered a terrible Dolphins fan for this - but I liked Jay Fiedler. He wouldn't put up gaudy numbers, but he won ballgames and took us to the playoffs with a weak supporting cast on offense. And don't say it was the defense, because that same defense was there when A.J. Feeley was at the helm.

You can't judge a QB by his numbers, you judge him by how he acts under pressure. This is why Marino was a great QB - not because of his numbers. In my opinion, Quinn doesn't have the mental makeup to be a great NFL QB. At his very best, he could be Trent Dilfer. But that's just my humble opinion.

Dude..Brady's mental makeup is why I think he will
be a great QB.


You liked FIEDLER???? just kidding...not
 
Not at all, but I do speak strongly of Quinn because I think he is the right pick for this organization, and I have NEVER pulled for a player this much, not even last year when Leinert, Young, and Cutler were all avalable.

I also speak negatively against Russell because I just don't get it when it comes to him. Granted I'm no "expert", but I watch football religiously, and the kid has shown me nothing that sells me on him being #1 overall, and I honestly don't even think he'd be in round 1 if the Sugar Bowl went any differently. I'm just sick of people putting SO much emphasis on one friggin' game.



You're right, just because they didn't win means the comeback was moot and unimpressive.

"Earth to Phinphan", that SHOULD have been a win had the refs not blown that last minute (last SECONDS actually) call, and then what would everyone be saying? They would be saying how great a comeback and win it was, not that "it doesn't matter that he put up all those points in the end, because they still lost and USC wasn't trying. Nice arguement :rolleyes2
What's your argument? The woulda, shoulda coulda?
 
What's your argument? The woulda, shoulda coulda?

My arguement is you're point about them losing that game makes ZERO sense in the arguement that he never did anything great. The entire comeback was great, and everyone knows that blown call at the end on the Leinert TD run cost them the game, and if that call had went the RIGHT way, Brady would be praised for the comeback, but because a bad call was made in the waning seconds of a game, instead of being credited for a comeback (win or not he still made up the point deficit) and great play you are saying it doesn't count because USC wasn't playing defense, yet had the one it would going the opposite and Quinn would be praised for the great come-from-behind victory.
 
Because the "Quinn can't win big games" argument is such fun, huh?

:rolleyes2

Exactly. At least the stats, while not definitive proof or measures of how a player will transfer to the NFL, are FACTS, so you get a general idea of the player, whereas saying "he can't win the big game" is an arguement based on heresay and no actual proof since ONE PLAYER doesn't win an entire game, plus there are so many variables to factor into an arguement like that, while stats are cold hard facts right there for you to look at.

Besides, the "can't win big games" arguement is such a diss to Dan Marino that it's funny Dolphin's "fans" would even use that as an arguement (let alone the ONLY arguement) as to why he won't succeed in the NFL.
 
Some people are just in such absolute denial about Quinn that its not even worth debating with them.
 
Why? Is it because people think Notre Dame actually had a better surrounding cast? Really? Jeff Samardzija, Rhema McKnight and John Carlson vs. Dwayne Bowe, Craig Davis, and Early Doucet? I don't think so. No way. Any scout would take the LSU cast over and over again before they take the Notre Dame crew. -


There is the key point.
No doubting Russells talent. Brady has a bad rap for no reason at all. He is just as capable as Jamarcus and more cerebral QB than raw talent.

You guys want to see some talent after Quinn is gone? Go to youtube and look up Kevin Kolb. He has attributes of Quinn and Russell. Brains and gun.
 
I'm just curious, but what is your background, and what do you know of my background?

Don't know what your background is.

My background is an M.A. in Economics and work in government auditing - as well as statistical analysis related to both sports salaries and the Public Choice field (extra work done for a professor while I was working on my M.A.).

I've also spent some time talking medical data (hence the analogical reference) with two close friends - one with a PHD in Biostatistics; the other an MD who is finishing up 6 extra years of work in specialized cancer research.
 
Just want to clarify on some matters - though I don't think CK's analysis here was validity that Quinn is better than Jamarcus - I do think Quinn is a better fit for us; and I like Quinn (more of a gut feeling) better than Russell.

I also think the "Quinn hasn't played anyone" or "had tough competition" is a flawed argument. If you play at ND you have some tough competition. And, you also have a guy with two years under a great NFL mind in Charlie Weis.

On the other hand, if we make the argument that Quinn did not have great talent around him (and I think that's a legit point) - then we also should make that point even more dramatically about Edwards at Stanford (and, he did have 17 games and 400 passes over the past two years).

I'm not saying Edwards is a better QB - nor do I know how he looked in those individual workouts or responded to questions (there may be some marks against him; and others; that I don't know about). But, just as we take the surrounding talent into account with Brady - we should do so with Edwards.

It is also true that Russell had some of the best talent in the NCAA's.
 
On the other hand, if we make the argument that Quinn did not have great talent around him (and I think that's a legit point) - then we also should make that point even more dramatically about Edwards at Stanford (and, he did have 17 games and 400 passes over the past two years).
.

Well then couldn't the arguement go for a guy like Colt Brennan from Hawai'i too? He had some DAMN impressive stats, but can you name one player on his offense besides him? However, that's not to say he is an NFL QB.

I guess when it comes down to it the only thing that matter is game footage of the actual player, not results in the win/loss categorey or even so much the actual stats. Look at Jay Cutler, everyone raved about him and he never "won" in college, but that was OK because he wasn't EXPECTED to win at a program like Vandy, so people focused on his play and not his performance against big opponents or his win/loss record. I think Quinn is getting screwed because ND is an elite program and they are EXPECTED to perform highly, so when they don't it tarnishes the image of eve great players who don't deserve it.
 
Great post, CK. One question/comment/thing, though. They were pretty even against "good" defenses whereas Quinn separated himself a little bt against "great" defenses in 2006, but how do those numbers compare to their 2005 stats using the same parameters? I'm wondering 2 things: What kind of consistency or improvement did each one show from one year to the next, and How would JaMarcus Russel's stats against "great" defenses change with a broader comparison, since he had half the games that Quinn had in that category.
 
Back
Top Bottom