Projecting Drake involves too many variables right now. Consider this:
1. Tannehill, completely different type of QB to Cutler, and a far better QB with a far better command of the offense. We will throw more effectively, and be able to use Drake against nickel and dime defenses more, which means he'll get past the line of scrimmage, and face faster players.
2. Sitton, & Davis are superior run blockers to Bushrod and Pouncey at the point of attack, but the downfield blocks Pouncey provided will not be there. This means we will spring Drake more, but not always have the success in the secondary that Drake had at the end of the season last year. All in all, his numbers should go up, but up from his season total, not necessarily those last 5 games.
3. Gesicki and Smythe enable Tannehill to move the chains more effectively and give us flexibility to audible run/pass. This may lead to less carries by Drake, but greater efficiency for him and far better production for the offense.
4. Injuries played a part in Drake's success towards the end of the year. Defenses were worn down, not always fully motivated and missing influential defenders. That all gets reset this year.
5. Expectations are always higher when a RB gets more carries and is a primary offensive weapon. We saw it with every RB who stepped up his carries, and Drake will be no different. When the defense keys on you more, you're less productive, that's just how it is.
6. We may actually play with more leads, meaning the defenses will key more on run plays and it may mean Drake is instructed to stay in bounds more, limiting his desire to streak the sidelines.
7. At the end of the day, this is Gase's make or break year. If we go 8-8 or better, Gase stays, if we go 7-9 or below, he's definitely on the hot seat. In essence, it's Gase's contract year. He's going to go down slingin' it with Tannehill, so we're likely not going to see monster carriers for Drake.
Given the dramatic change in personnel (Tannehill, Amendola/Wilson, Sitton, Kilgrave-errr-I-mean-Kilgore, Gesicki, Smythe, Ballage on 3rd downs), and the re-focusing of the offense to use TE's and play to Tannehill's strengths, the level of change is high. Drake's new reality is going to be affected by so many different influences, that it's very iffy to project how he does. All in all, he should be improved over his numbers last year … but compared to his exceptional run the last 5 games … that may be asking too much. It will be fun to see him do it if he can though.