OK... fair enough.
Let me debate a couple of the things you've put forward.
First of all:A future third is the traditional cost for a mid 4th pick. This particular 3rd will probably fall somewhere between 80 and 96... which in this year's draft would have netted Blake Corum (83) or Marshawn Lloyd (86), and I like Corum and Lloyd a lot less than Wright-- especially for OUR offense.
You are suggesting that the 3rd round is too early for drafting RBs, but this is where the SECOND TIER of RBs generally comes off of the board. The first tier of RBs generally comes off the board late first and second round.
For years, many of us have attempted to convince FH brother NOT to fight for 1st round RBs... yes, it's too early, but third round is where you find starting safeties and 2nd tier Guards. It ISN'T a premium pick... the high dollar positions are largely wiped out by then.
Now add to the equation that we had 11 picks next year (including three thirds)... and there is NO WAY that we'll have 11 rookies make next year's team. We are not the 2019 Dolphins any longer, and good teams trade up... more than they trade down. I think some of the brothers are still stuck in rebuilding draft mode.
We are now in the position to snipe the specific players who fit OUR needs, and that player WAS Wright. His skillset was EXACTLY what we needed... Alvin Kamara.
He's the 1a RB by next year at the latest. I predict that you'll LOVE him... if we overpaid for a RB... it was Achane (but he still fell in the 2nd tier area).
Fair response and I’ll respond to your points.
I full agree with your first paragraph. I fully understand that’s the cost for moving up. Basically to move up a round this year you’ll have to give a future pick a round higher. I also agree that Wright is a better and I would go as far as to say a MUCH better player than Corum or Lloyd. No arguments there. The only thing I would attempt to argue would be the range of that 3rd next year. If it’s a compensatory pick then yes it’ll be late 3rd which does soften the blow but if it’s our own 3rd we have no idea where it’ll fall. I guarantee when the Cardinals accepted the Texans trade last year to move up to 3 and they got a 1st for this year in return… they didn’t expect that pick to be #27. My point is… you just never know bc of injuries and all that so I never like giving away future picks.
The second point… I’m not necessarily saying the 3rd is too early for a back… just that I don’t like giving that away for a back. As I said… I don’t like giving away any future picks when we don’t know where they’re going to fall. I understand sometimes it’s necessary but I still don’t like it and if we’re going to do it then let’s take a premium position.
3rd… I fully disagree that a 3rd round pick isn’t a premium pick. I’ve always seen the draft like this… 1st/2nd/3rd round picks are your premium picks. You should EXPECT… not hope to find starters in those rounds. I expect top 3 round picks to be starters. Some from the jump and some down the line. 4th rounders I consider a guy that with development… can be a solid starter down the road. Maybe not a pro bowl caliber player but a solid starter. 5th rounders you’re starting to look for traits you hope to develop and 6th/7th rounders are basically buying a cheap lottery ticket and you’re just kind of hoping you’ll get lucky. I understand everyone may not see the draft this way but I do and always have.
I also disagree that good teams trade up more often. Philly is an example. Obviously everyone except maybe Cincy (LoL) trades up at some point but the Eagles trade down just like the Patriots used to do when they were winning. Baltimore also trades down a lot. Again… not saying they never trade up but they trade down much more often than they trade up. As the article I posted showed… roughly 6/10 trade ups never work out which is why the consistently good teams don’t do it often.
I’m not stuck in rebuilding mode but I also don’t think we’re as close as maybe you and others believe we are. I don’t believe we’ve gotten better this offseason. I also don’t think we’re that much worse but I do think by a small margin… our roster isn’t as good as last year. We have to many holes to be using picks as luxury for tailbacks.
Lastly… I fully agree that Wrights skillset fits our offense to a T. He’s actually pretty advanced for a rookie in pass pro and his body size will allow him to hold up in pass pro on 3rd downs early in his career. I’m really excited about that for Tua.
I don’t think he’s going to take over the job as easily as you think. Last year Achane was just a home run hitter not a 3 down tailback. But as you’ve seen… this offseason he has added weight and muscle mass. He started out the same way at Texas A&M. He was just a guy you put in trying to hit a home run. Over his career at A&M… he built his body and developed into 3 down tailback in the SEC and the SEC West at that. I believe he’ll follow that same trajectory in the NFL as evidence by him adding weight and muscle mass.
Either way whether Achane or Wright or the combo as co starters I fully agree that while I don’t like trading away picks for tailbacks… at least we appear to be set going forward so that part is a win.
