Realistic Sack Total for Dion Jordan Next Year?

[foozool13]

Well news is slow and I am bored, so here is a new poll! Lets get to it. Quick and easy.

What is a realistic sack total number for Dion Jordan for it to be a "successful" rookie campaign?

Lets not kid ourselves here. While he is a very dynamic player with a great skill set, his main role will be rushing the passer. With Wake on the other side tearing **** up like he always does, my expectations for Jordan are high. For comparison here are some numbers from rookie years for some of the pass rushers in the game today:

Aldon Smith - 14 sacks (16 games)
Whitney Mercilus - 6 sacks (16 games)
DeMarcus Ware - 8 sacks (16 games)
Bruce Irvin - 8 sacks (16 games)
Chandler Jones - 6 sacks (14 games)
J.J. Watt - 5.5 sacks (16 games)
Jared Allen - 9 sacks (15 games)
Von Miller - 11.5 sacks (15 games)

I vote 8-9.

 

[GoonBoss]

I'm going to say in the 6-8 range, simply because I think this year is going to be
about finding a place to plug him in and he's going to struggle a little.

Of course, I have no idea.

 

[hoops]

it depends on how he's used but if it's primarily a situational rusher i think 5's a good number...this kids pass rush is raw...i mean raw...so i would think this would go slow to begin with...especially if he's 248 lbs when he reports...i'm hoping for 255 in 10 days...

 

[TealAttack13]

I went with 6-7 since they don't anticipate him to be an every down player.

 

[damanref10]

This should be treated the same way that many of us treated how to gauge Ryan Tannehill's rookie year --- it isnt about finding a number, sacks for dion/td/int for Ryan. Its about whether you see that elite spark every now and then and continually see improvement as the year goes along.

I'm guessing 5-6 just because hes going to be a situational guy from what we know right now this year - so the chance for early down sacks is basically nil.

 

[datruth55]

it depends on how he's used but if it's primarily a situational rusher i think 5's a good number...this kids pass rush is raw...i mean raw...so i would think this would go slow to begin with...especially if he's 248 lbs when he reports...i'm hoping for 255 in 10 days...

Has he even been cleared by the doctors for his shoulder? Doubt he's been able to do much lifting with a bad shoulder. He may have lost weight.

 

[LouPhinFan]

Went with 1-5 because I have no idea how they're going to use him.

 

[j-off-her-doll]

I went 6-7. I think he'll get a few sacks just because he has Wake opposite him; we should get a good push from the interior D-line; and he has the athleticism to run down the QB. If he can get healthy and get working, he really does have an opportunity to put in good work on passing downs.

 

[hoops]

Has he even been cleared by the doctors for his shoulder? Doubt he's been able to do much lifting with a bad shoulder. He may have lost weight.

well mayock made it sound like he would start lifting immediately after surgery...so i'm hoping that has commenced...cause he's gonna need to be much stronger even against tackles...those hands and wing span though are terrific...but aldon smith came in as a rookie at i think 270 lbs even if it was 265 thats 17 more than jordan was last weighed at...and that makes a big difference...cause once tackles start overplaying the speed you have to be able to show them power also...

no matter what though long term he will be judged as a pass rusher...top 5 picks you trade up for you expect double digit sack production year in and year out...that might be a year or two away but i think the smart play is get him working on his pass rush arsenal and mirroring wake as much as he can now...he has all the tools and ability to do everything else ie drop cover etc it's paramount that his pass rush arsenal and strength develop...

i've heard people say he might be a manny lawson...i like his pass rush tools and cod hips more than lawsons but if that's all we get long term it's not enough...we need aldon smith long term with more versatility...i think it's in the cards provided he puts on good weight and these shoulder issues go away

 

[Patrick_Bateman]

Went with 1-5 because I have no idea how they're going to use him.

I went with 1-5 as well, not only is he going to be a rookie who may end up needing to add more strength/size next offseason, but the early plan from what I've read is to use him as a situational player so I'm not holding him to unrealistic expectations.

 

[Kucha]

I'm going to say 3-5 because of all the documented factors that includes: recovering from injury, missing most of the camps because of school, needing to develop more pass rushing skills and requiring a few more pounds. Love his talent, but I won't be surprised if year 1 turns into a learning experience, IMO.

I hope that I'm wrong and that he tears the league up this year. :)

 

[j-off-her-doll]

well mayock made it sound like he would start lifting immediately after surgery...so i'm hoping that has commenced...cause he's gonna need to be much stronger even against tackles...those hands and wing span though are terrific...but aldon smith came in as a rookie at i think 270 lbs even if it was 265 thats 17 more than jordan was last weighed at...and that makes a big difference...cause once tackles start overplaying the speed you have to be able to show them power also...

no matter what though long term he will be judged as a pass rusher...top 5 picks you trade up for you expect double digit sack production year in and year out...that might be a year or two away but i think the smart play is get him working on his pass rush arsenal and mirroring wake as much as he can now...he has all the tools and ability to do everything else ie drop cover etc it's paramount that his pass rush arsenal and strength develop...

i've heard people say he might be a manny lawson...i like his pass rush tools and cod hips more than lawsons but if that's all we get long term it's not enough...we need aldon smith long term with more versatility...i think it's in the cards provided he puts on good weight and these shoulder issues go away

I don't think he'll ever have Smith's hands. You know I love me some A. Smith. But he's much faster/quicker, so if he hits his ceiling, I expect his pass rush game to look like something between Smith and Miller. Just talking about how he'd achieve that success - what it'd look like.

 

[Adam First]

6 sacks seems like a good conservative estimate

 

[hoops]

I don't think he'll ever have Smith's hands. You know I love me some A. Smith. But he's much faster/quicker, so if he hits his ceiling, I expect his pass rush game to look like something between Smith and Miller. Just talking about how he'd achieve that success - what it'd look like.

when you say smiths hands i think you mean the strength in his hands??? if so i would agree with that...smiths hands and his quick lateral agility are fantastic...he has a signature now outside redirect back inside move that is breathtaking how quick he gets in the gap and gains the inside shoulder of the tackle...but smith also doesn't have the same rediculous closing speed and acceleration and speed period that jordan has...jordan closes like a gazelle...

smith also has eye popping 35 plus inch arms...

 

[Asicswrg85]

I honestly think 4 maybe 5. I think he is gonna have a big adjustment to the NFL

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