Reality vs Possibility

[jb1213]

Coach McDaniel should call a meeting of the Diamond Dogs!

 

[Marino1313]

Dolphins at Jags afc championship game! Let’s go! Lol

 

[NBP81]

The aggregate opinion of people who put money where their mouth is comes out to Miami +615 to win the game... As of right now, this means the Fins need to win 13.99% of the time to break even on their bet... That figure will be more precise when we get the closing line but still... ~15% is not impossible yet not a reason you should break your TV if they lose the game.

 

[Miami 13]

I was surprised when I heard we are the biggest underdogs in Wild Card weekend history at -13.

 

[StevieY1]

Im praying Im wrong but I put $1000 on Buffalo -12 on Tuesday. Knew Tua was out. We're screwed. If we won, Id be so happy having witnessed one of the greatest playoff upsets of all time, will gladly rip up that betting ticket (electronically)

Here's to you ripping up that ticket!

 

[GRYPHONK]

I think everyone agrees there are two possible outcomes to a playoff game (ties aren't allowed) - 50/50. You are correct in that. But, that is separate from probability of a win or loss.

Lol, I am sorry but.... I seriously find it funny how some are taking this exchange so seriously

The fact that there was a need to elongate the technicality of percentages and probabilities is funny.

I am just having fun guys.

No harm meant

 

[GRYPHONK]

Oh, I don't think you are lacking intellect. I think you are doing it purposely, only feigning that you don't understand.

HAHA

Got me!!

That's why you are a moderator.

I was just having fun here, no harm meant.

I'll yield buddy.

 

[Awsi Dooger]

I was surprised when I heard we are the biggest underdogs in Wild Card weekend history at -13.

That's because the wild card weekend historically has featured the #3 seed as the highest seeds. They are less likely to be a huge favorite than a #1 seed or #2 seed. The Bills are a strange case because they have the highest power rating in the league on many reputable lists like Jeff Sagarin's but aren't the #1 seed partially due to the strange events at the end of the season.

Anyway, I guess it depends on what is considered the wild card round. In 1972 I remember the Dolphins were 13 point favorites over the wild card Browns for most of the week. Then it got bet down on game day to a mixture of -12 and -12.5.

I'm sure there are other examples from those early years with only one wild card team. The lists I've seen this week of largest playoff point spreads are not full lists.

 

[Third Eye]

Yo

Possibility: I could have a 3 way with two porn stars on Sunday

Reality: I'll be at a bar, sans porn stars, watching the Dolphins lose (most likely)

u could ask the two guys at the bar in the Bills jerseys if they have ever been in porn

 

[canesz06]

Yo

u could ask the two guys at the bar in the Bills jerseys if they have ever been in porn

For some reason, that doesn't sound very appealing