RUMOR: Lorenzo Diamond to be cut
- Thread starter BenchFiedler
- Start date
LarryFinFan
Left So Fla, never the Fins...
FinKage34 said:
ROFLMAO..."drop" Lee first..... :rofl3: :rofl3: :rofl3:
VanDolPhan
Practice Squad
I'd believe it. Diamond really only had the one solid preseason game. Rest of the time he was near invisible.
Lungoystr said:
Did you even WATCH the play in which Lee was called for that holding penalty? I didn't think so.
It was the epitome of a cheap to outright bogus call. I literally screamed when I saw the flag. "Don't tell me they called that on Donald Lee! That's bull****!"
Lee was lined up on the right side. He exploded off the ball and competely buried his man, pinning him against a mass of humanity. It opened a decisive running lane for maybe a 6 or 7 yard gain. At the very end it looked like Lee's left arm got stuck against the defender for a brief moment. I watch line play on every snap and they almost never call that, or things much more blatant. Lee completely stymied his man to the point the guy couldn't move, so the idiot ref probably assumed it had to be holding.
painnotpleasure
Hall Of Famer
Arizona Cardinals.Junoir 61503 said:
adamprez2003
FinHeaven VIP
Awsi Dooger said:
Hey Awsi. just wondering. do you play the first few weeks of the nfl or do you wait until week 3 or 4 like others i know
adamprez2003 said:
Interesting question. That has really changed for me. I used to return to Las Vegas in August and try to jump on some early mistakes. Some independent sportsbooks got aggressive putting up early numbers and propositions, making silly mistakes. Plus since I was there I followed the league much more closely, and relied on the opinions of people I respect. The last few years I've been able to visit my parents in Miami until early to mid-September. The statistical company I work for is more lenient letting me forward my stuff to them during the preseason and maybe even one or two regular weeks. This year I'm not returning until the 12th. Frankly, I'm just following the Dolphins right now so I'm not ready to dive in during week one.
I used to use a very basic system in week one and the first few weeks, until the statistical and situational trends started to form. I called it Cream, Crowd and Crap. One year it went 9-1 in week one. Basically you divide the league into three groups; the top 6 to 8 Super Bowl caliber teams are Cream. The middle 20 or so teams are Crowd. The bottom 6 or so are Crap. Whenever two teams from the same group are playing each other, you take the underdog if it's +4 or more. If a Cream is playing Crowd, you give up to -7 at home and -3 on the road. If a Cream is playing Crap, you give up to -14 at home and -7 on the road. Crowd playing Crap was the most difficult to apply specific guidelines. Seemed to vary much more in the results. Basically, the safest was to take points if Crowd was the road underdog, and to give up to -3 on Crowd at home. I would take Crap at +4 or higher at home and +7 or more on the road. So our game might be labeled Denver (Crowd) at Miami (Crap), and taking the +4 the proper play. Of course, that system requires leaguewide subjectivity and you'll naturally slot many teams in the wrong place once you've looked back at it months later. The key aspect of that system is the +4 among teams rated in the same group. You'll never go wrong with that over a period of time.
You are right, many of my Las Vegas friends emphasize the preseason then go gingerly the first few weeks, emphasizing the college games instead.
adamprez2003
FinHeaven VIP
yeah i think our friends are similar. they jump on some obvious mistakes in preseason, switch to college and come back week 3 or 4. I use somewhat of a similar system but use more feel without having the specific numbers of what to lay. Later in the season do you use the rushing attempt/ avg pass play analysis?
adamprez2003 said:
Yes, exactly. Primarily the passing numbers. Especially when the difference between one QB and the other doesn't jive with the pointspread. Also a very good stat called points per pass attempt. That's another obscure one the mainstream media will NEVER mention but the sportsbooks and big bettors keep track of. It's fairly obvious, a stat that measures overall team efficiency. Let's say you pass only 20 times but score 31 points. That usually means the entire team finctioned well; the running game, defense, special teams. On the other hand, if you throw it 40 times and only score 10 points then you stunk all around.
I have a few formulas that apply PPPA (Points Per Pass Attempt) and come up with a predicted score. It's much better than the yards per point crap, although the sportsbooks still ask for that because bettors are more familiar with it. Some of the sportsbooks put it on stats sheets they pass out. It cracks me up the sportsbooks KNOW the most relevant stats based on the work myself and a few others do for them, but those stats don't appear on the handout sheets.
My favorite stuff is the situational trends. They are much more obscure but provide the potential for huge percentage in a given year. I'll post some of them here from time to time. I have Excel workbooks that track several hundred back to '93 or earlier. A few years ago I got carried away and looked at every one every week to see which teams they championed. Far too much conflict. Now I try to rely on a handful of my base favorites. Like the team playing on Monday night that travels to play a non-divisional foe the following week. They tend to bomb. Two of my favorite wagers from last year were in that spot: Miami over St. Louis and Philly over Green Bay. Notice I highlight winners. Tons of losses in this racket, as I'm sure you know.
Good thing also. I like Diamond.J Tes said:
Joneal7
Heheheheheheheh
maybe were bringin in teyo johnson