Ryan Tannehill 2013: QB Pressure, Completion %, Deep Passing, & YPA Statistics | Page 21 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

Ryan Tannehill 2013: QB Pressure, Completion %, Deep Passing, & YPA Statistics

Thanks for the clarification. As from my post at the top of page 14, I have argued strongly as have others that you cannot judge Tannehill or any QB by simple statistics such as QB rating or YPA without considering OL play, offensive predictability, running game efficacy, etc. Therefore I am glad to hear you say that DVOA does not isolate QB play from these other variables. And this makes sense as Gravity has pointed out the strong correlation between DVOA and YPA, Net YPA, etc.


Obviously not! As the site's staff keep reminding everyone, the DVOA of any single player does not represent a judgment on the player, but simply gauges his performance. For example, it's a well-known fact that OL blocking is key to an RB's DVOA, so that an RB's DVOA is actually a reflection of the performance of the entire team as far as running the ball. The difference with RBs is that you can compare two or more backs from the same team and DVOA will tell you how good each is relative to the other.

Applied to Tannehill, every staffer and the usual posters -very smart and knowledgeable people, most of them- know a QB doesn't play on an island, that the OL and the receivers and RBs all have a role to play in explaining the DVOA of a QB. Take Mike Tanier, a former staffer at FO and currently at Sports on Earth. Last week he wrote a piece about Ireland and in passing explained what most everyone knows, that if anything Tannehill has been doing pretty darn well so far despite his bad DVOA.

I also think FO it's a great place to start learning how to apply statistics correctly to the game of football, as there are many caveats that need to be considered, and you can't just yield stats and correlations like a club and expect to derive something meaningful.

As far as the 3rd and long example, on the other hand, no, the fact that you face more of those situations is not of particular interest. Every QB is rated according to a baseline, that is, what the "replacement level" QB would do on 3rd long (which is not much). In other words, the bar isn't very high in those situations, since you're not expected to convert very often.
 
The fixation on YPA is badly misplaced. It blinds you from looking at the impact of sacks, the running game, play calling, etc on offensive production and ultimately winning.

http://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/blog/2008/10/does-protecting-the-quarterback-help/

This study also points out the impact on sack rate. They are only slightly less impactful than interceptions.

http://www.footballperspective.com/correlating-passing-stats-with-wins/
As always, I'm happy to very thoughtfully consider any objective evidence that Tannehill's individual performance in 2013 was affected in some measurable way by situational or surrounding variables.
 
Thanks for the clarification. As from my post at the top of page 14, I have argued strongly as have others that you cannot judge Tannehill or any QB by simple statistics such as QB rating or YPA without considering OL play, offensive predictability, running game efficacy, etc. Therefore I am glad to hear you say that DVOA does not isolate QB play from these other variables. And this makes sense as Gravity has pointed out the strong correlation between DVOA and YPA, Net YPA, etc.
The problem with that line of thinking is that DVOA and YPA statistics are functionally equivalent, and both are strongly related to the perceptions of QBs' individual ability, making the impact of other variables on them unclear at least and dubious if not nil at most.

I think people are perhaps having difficulty wrapping their minds around the idea that, despite all of the moving parts that revolve around 11 players on one side of the ball, 11 on the other, special teams, a bench, and a coaching staff, it nonetheless may be the case that the greatest by far porition of the variance in a team's performance is driven by the individual ability and play of its quarterback.

It may belie what one may believe based on intuition or in theory, but it nonetheless may be true.
 
As always, I'm happy to very thoughtfully consider any objective evidence that Tannehill's individual performance in 2013 was affected in some measurable way by situational or surrounding variables.

I'm done. Can't explain it any better than I already have. Have fun assuming that Tannehill plays in a vacuum unaffected by anything else. Good luck with that.
 
And?

He isn't immune to gravity either (pun intended). Why not run correlations between his YPA and altitude of the stadium?
As soon as someone proposed those variables were related, I would! :)

---------- Post added at 11:48 AM ---------- Previous post was at 11:48 AM ----------

I'm done. Can't explain it any better than I already have. Have fun assuming that Tannehill plays in a vacuum unaffected by anything else. Good luck with that.
You've explained it well, but you're still functioning in the territory of theory alone.
 
As soon as someone proposed those variables were related, I would! :)

---------- Post added at 11:48 AM ---------- Previous post was at 11:48 AM ----------

You've explained it well, but you're still functioning in the territory of theory alone.

No I am not. It is backed by (a) reality (b) studies I have posted.

You have to explain how a participant in football is able to operate unaffected by other players, coaches, etc. Good luck trying.
 
No I am not. It is backed by (a) reality (b) studies I have posted.

You have to explain how a participant in football is able to operate unaffected by other players, coaches, etc. Good luck trying.
First of all, I'm talking about YPA alone here, which is unrelated to sacks or to running game variables, objectively speaking, not just in theory.

Second, who's to say what you're proposing doesn't work in reverse to the same or an even greater extent, whereby the quality of the quarterback enhances the play of the rest of the roster?

You have this "surrounding variables" idea mapped out totally unidirectionally, whereby the quarterback is more affected by the other players, I presume because he is just one person and they are greater in number, whereas it's entirely possible that the nature of the quarterback's role in today's game creates precisely the opposite effect.

Of course the latter of those ideas is supported by the fact that the teams with the better quarterbacks are almost always more competitive than the teams with the worse ones.
 
First of all, I'm talking about YPA alone here, which is unrelated to sacks or to running game variables, objectively speaking, not just in theory.

I find it hilarious that you are now using this information..... after implying it wasn't true for hundreds of posts..... :lol:

BTW, it is not unrelated to running game variables. There is decent correlation between number of rushes in a game and passing efficiency.

Second, who's to say what you're proposing doesn't work in reverse to the same or an even greater extent, whereby the quality of the quarterback enhances the play of the rest of the roster?

Of course it works both ways. IT IS A TEAM GAME.

You have this "surrounding variables" idea mapped out totally unidirectionally, whereby the quarterback is more affected by the other players, I presume because he is just one person and they are greater in number, whereas it's entirely possible that the nature of the quarterback's role in today's game creates precisely the opposite effect.

You've made a giant and erroneous assumption.

Of course the latter of those ideas is supported by the fact that the teams with the better quarterbacks are almost always more competitive than the teams with the worse ones.

And the former is supported by drops in performance by the same QB on the same team year over year. I already pointed out huge drops in QB rating by many QBs this year as compared to last season, including Flacco, Brady, RGIII, Matt Ryan.

Manning's season ending QBR varies by FIFTY POINTS between his highest and lowest. He has 5 seasons where his QBR varied by more that 10 points (higher or lower) from the season before. This is an elite QB we are talking about. Either QBs are wildly inconsistent or there are other factors at work.
 
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Ive already asked for a player compariosn chart for the first two seasons as starter. This will never happen, az i think we can all agree it will skew the perception of tannehill.
 
Some peoples obsessions with terrible QBs are baffling.
 
I'll pass. I'm pretty familiar with what you've offered in the past. Nothing but a theoretical critique, rather than anything close to an objective analysis of the variables of interest.

I think I'm speechless. So basically your view of a live sport is simply what is shown in stats. What is seen, and the things that affect what goes on the stat sheet are not areas of "interest" to you.....?
I find it so mysteriously ridiculous that this is your true take on our sport that I can't even say that I believe you truly believe any of what you're saying. It's that absurd!

To watch this kid, with everything that has been put on him this season....improve over last year even a little is something to be proud of.
 
I think I'm speechless. So basically your view of a live sport is simply what is shown in stats. What is seen, and the things that affect what goes on the stat sheet are not areas of "interest" to you.....?
I find it so mysteriously ridiculous that this is your true take on our sport that I can't even say that I believe you truly believe any of what you're saying. It's that absurd!

To watch this kid, with everything that has been put on him this season....improve over last year even a little is something to be proud of.

exactly, no need to watch the game. just check the box score afterwards. it tells you all you need to know.

da fuq???
 
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