Ryan Tannehill 2013: QB Pressure, Completion %, Deep Passing, & YPA Statistics

[Shouright]

I find it hilarious that you are now using this information..... after implying it wasn't true for hundreds of posts.....

You'll have to refresh my memory on that one. In fact I gathered this data myself on the relationship between YPA and sacks:

http://www.finheaven.com/showthread...h-NFL-Quarterback-Play-and-Winning&highlight=

BTW, it is not unrelated to running game variables. There is decent correlation between number of rushes in a game and passing efficiency.

Is that true for Tannehill, as well?

And the former is supported by drops in performance by the same QB on the same team year over year. I already pointed out huge drops in QB rating by many QBs this year as compared to last season, including Flacco, Brady, RGIII, Matt Ryan.

Manning's season ending QBR varies by FIFTY POINTS between his highest and lowest. He has 5 seasons where his QBR varied by more that 10 points (higher or lower) from the season before. This is an elite QB we are talking about. Either QBs are wildly inconsistent or there are other factors at work.

Again this centers on YPA for me, not QB rating, and as I've already shown, the variation between good and not-so-good QBs is greater than the variation within either group season-to-season. In other words, regardless of year-to-year variation, the better QBs attain significantly higher career YPAs.

My contention is not that it's not a team game, or that there isn't a significant impact created by areas of teams other than their quarterback. My contention is that a team's YPA on offense drives success a great deal, YPA is a function of individual QB ability, and YPA is affected non-significantly by other variables.

How does this relate to Ryan Tannehill and the Dolphins? Well, unless and until Ryan Tannehill plays better individually, don't expect the team to be highly competitive, and there is no objective evidence that any other variables are "in the way" in that regard. In fact it's equally if not more plausible that Ryan Tannehill's play is "in the way" of the better functioning of other areas of the team.

 

[tay0365]

Would like a similar thread with all these fancy net ypa and wpa and correlations, standard deviations, or years 1 and 2, in comparison to ryan tannehills year one and two, for the following quarterbacks:

Tom brady
Aaron rodgers
Peyton manning
drew brees
And phillip rivers...

Please.

Name.........GP......CMP......ATT......CMP%......YDS......AVG......TD......LNG......INT......FUM......RAT

Rivers........16.......277.......460.......60.2........3,152....6.85......21.......49........15........06........82.4

Tannehill...16.......355.....588......60.4.........3,913....6.66......24......67.........17.......06.........81.7

 

[Shouright]

Name.........GP......CMP......ATT......CMP%......YDS......AVG......TD......LNG......INT......FUM......RAT

Rivers........16.......277.......460.......60.2........3,152....6.85......21.......49........15........06........82.4

Tannehill...16.......355.....588......60.4.........3,913....6.66......24......67.........17.......06.........81.7

So given that Rivers went on to be a great QB, if we're being consistent, don't we have to go back and figure out what situational variables undermined his play that year? Or was he somehow a different critter that year than Tannehill was this year? :unsure:

 

[FinfanInBuffalo]

So given that Rivers went on to be a great QB, if we're being consistent, don't we have to go back and figure out what situational variables undermined his play that year? Or was he somehow a different critter that year than Tannehill was this year? :unsure:

No.

 

[FinfanInBuffalo]

Again this centers on YPA for me, not QB rating,

Why only YPA?

and as I've already shown, the variation between good and not-so-good QBs is greater than the variation within either group season-to-season. In other words, regardless of year-to-year variation, the better QBs attain significantly higher career YPAs.

That doesn't eliminate the FACT that significant variation occurs year to year for ALL QBs. If it is all about the QB, then you must believe that elite QBs are wildly inconsistent. Is that what you believe?

My contention is not that it's not a team game, or that there isn't a significant impact created by areas of teams other than their quarterback.

IMO, this is overstated and the variation in even elite QB's stats demonstrates this. Also, the behavior of NFL teams over the last 50 years refutes this. QBs are most important, yes. But, not by a big enough margin to make other positions insignificant. Otherwise, teams would not spend so much money on other positions.

My contention is that a team's YPA on offense drives success a great deal, YPA is a function of individual QB ability, and YPA is affected non-significantly by other variables.

IMO, you are putting too much emphasis on YPA to the exclusion of other measures of performance. Also, you are also putting too much emphasis on the QB. There is a ton of data to support this. I have pointed you to studies that show YPA is impacted by # of runs, down and distance, offensive scheme, and YAC. It is also impacted by pass pressure. To discount all of those variables is absurd.

How does this relate to Ryan Tannehill and the Dolphins? Well, unless and until Ryan Tannehill plays better individually, don't expect the team to be highly competitive, and there is no objective evidence that any other variables are "in the way" in that regard. In fact it's equally if not more plausible that Ryan Tannehill's play is "in the way" of the better functioning of other areas of the team.

There is no objective evidence that Tannehill is not affected by other factors. In fact, to believe that is to believe that Tannehill is somehow different than all other QBs. I have two huge pieces of evidence that the Dolphins believe there are bigger issues than Tannehill, changes in midseason on the OL and the firing of the OC. What the team believes is much more important than what you or I believe, but the team only agrees with one of us.

You are misguided by comparisons of Tannehill to established veterans. Tannehill should be compared to those veterans at similar times in their careers.

My last point, again please explain the wild swings year to year in performance by elite QBs.

 

[Shouright]

Why only YPA?

Because it's strongly correlated with winning and with quarterback quality, and that's what this franchise's near future is hinging on right now in my opinion. Also because of the article linked below in which the following is noted:

Essentially, this means that for predictive purposes, two of the four inputs in passer rating are meaningless.

http://www.footballperspective.com/correlating-passing-stats-with-wins/

And this article as well, with regard to YPA:

http://personal.denison.edu/~lalla/MCURCSM2011/4.pdf

That doesn't eliminate the FACT that significant variation occurs year to year for ALL QBs. If it is all about the QB, then you must believe that elite QBs are wildly inconsistent. Is that what you believe?

I believe elite QBs are just as inconsistent as the non-elite ones, but within a significantly higher YPA range on average, and that's been objectively supported.

IMO, this is overstated and the variation in even elite QB's stats demonstrates this. Also, the behavior of NFL teams over the last 50 years refutes this. QBs are most important, yes. But, not by a big enough margin to make other positions insignificant. Otherwise, teams would not spend so much money on other positions.

The league is evolving toward paying the big money primarily to players who revolve around the passing game on offense and defense, namely the QB, the WRs, the TEs, the DEs, and the DBs. There is an obvious relationship between those positions and "quarterbacking."

You are misguided by comparisons of Tannehill to established veterans. Tannehill should be compared to those veterans at similar times in their careers.

I don't think the belief that Ryan Tannehill will need to play better individually for the team to be highly competitive necessarily entails a comparison between him and established veterans. It simply indicates that he's not playing well enough individually right now to fit the bill.

 

[FinfanInBuffalo]

I believe elite QBs are just as inconsistent as the non-elite ones,

What causes that inconsistency? Does their ability actually fluctuate year to year?

The league is evolving toward paying the big money primarily to players who revolve around the passing game on offense and defense, namely the QB, the WRs, the TEs, the DEs, and the DBs. There is an obvious relationship between those positions and "quarterbacking."

Left tackles still command big money and very early draft picks.

But if the WRs, TEs, and LTs are insignificant to success as you claim, why are any getting paid big money. That would be insane. Your view is in direct conflict with team behavior while mine is in sync with team behavior.

 

[Shouright]

What causes that inconsistency? Does their ability actually fluctuate year to year?

Again this is the "weather and climate" analogy. Weather fluctuates all over the globe, but climate determines the range in which that fluctuation in weather occurs.

Similarly, all QBs' YPAs fluctuate, but better QBs' YPAs fluctuate within a higher range on average. We aren't going to see snow in Bora Bora, and likewise we aren't going to see Chad Henne with an 8+ YPA, despite the fact that his YPA might fluctuate as much as Peyton Manning's.

Left tackles still command big money and very early draft picks.

But if the WRs, TEs, and LTs are insignificant to success as you claim, why are any getting paid big money. That would be insane. Your view is in direct conflict with team behavior while mine is in sync with team behavior.

Those players are very likely to be comparatively insignificant with regard to high-level success if they aren't playing on a team with a good quarterback. Moreover, their roles have a great deal to do with the functioning of the quarterback.

 

[FinfanInBuffalo]

Again this is the "weather and climate" analogy. Weather fluctuates all over the globe, but climate determines the range in which that fluctuation in weather occurs.

Similarly, all QBs' YPAs fluctuate, but better QBs' YPAs fluctuate within a higher range on average. We aren't going to see snow in Bora Bora, and likewise we aren't going to see Chad Henne with an 8+ YPA, despite the fact that his YPA might fluctuate as much as Peyton Manning's.

For your analogy to hold, average temperature would have to fluctuate wildly from year to year. That doesn't happen.

YPA is a function of individual QB ability, and YPA is affected non-significantly by other variables..

Moreover, their roles have a great deal to do with the functioning of the quarterback.

 

[Shouright]

For your analogy to hold, average temperature would have to fluctuate wildly from year to year. That doesn't happen.

Well use whatever analogy you find suitable, but in the end, the variation in career YPA between good and not-so-good QBs is greater than the variation within those groups year-to-year.

 

[FinfanInBuffalo]

Well use whatever analogy you find suitable, but in the end, the variation in career YPA between good and not-so-good QBs is greater than the variation within those groups year-to-year.

Irrelevant.


That doesn't eliminate the FACT that significant variation occurs year to year for elite QBs. If it is all about the QB, then you must believe that elite QBs are wildly inconsistent. Is that what you believe?

 

[2413fanphins]

O.P... what program did you use to make the table on the first page of the thread?

i have statistics compiled for 6 quarterbacks, in their first two years as starters in the league, and I can't for the life of me get them to upload to the site.

 

[The Goat]

Because it's strongly correlated with winning and with quarterback quality.

But it's not the ONLY thing.

Riiiiiiiiiiight?

 

[Shouright]

Irrelevant.


That doesn't eliminate the FACT that significant variation occurs year to year for elite QBs. If it is all about the QB, then you must believe that elite QBs are wildly inconsistent. Is that what you believe?

Didn't we already cover this?

 

[Shouright]

The following were the game-to-game correlations between Ryan Tannehill's YPA and other variables in 2013:

Rushing attempts = 0.22
Rushing yards = 0.11
Yards per carry = 0.14
Sacks = -0.05
Percentage of runs (versus passing dropbacks) = 0.19

The correlation between YPA and rushing attempts, controlling for final score margin (positive or negative) = -0.06.

The correlation between YPA and final score margin, controlling for rushing attempts = 0.53

I think it's obvious based on those two partial correlations which of those variables -- YPA or rushing attempts -- is driving the bus on winning.