Ryan Tannehill Improved No More than the Average Second-Year Starter at QB since 1994

[Shouright]

Here are the data for the QBs who started at least 10 games as rookies, as well as 10 games in their second seasons in the league, since 1994, the first year of the salary cap in the NFL.

The numbers for each QB represent the increase or decrease from his rookie season to his second season in standardized units. In other words, the numbers reflect a QB's increase or decrease in comparison to the league norm.

Player	Comp %age	YPA	TD %age	INT %age	QB Rating	Sack %age	Adj. YPA	Net YPA	Adj. Net YPA
Ben Roethlisberger	-13	-2	6	6	0	11	2	4	5
Charlie Batch	-7	0	12	-7	0	-6	0	0	-1
Matt Ryan	-9	-29	13	-9	-9	-1	-19	-24	-17
Jeff Garcia	11	16	30	19	27	-1	26	16	25
Joe Flacco	10	5	10	5	10	2	7	8	9
Carson Palmer	22	13	25	30	29	12	24	17	26
Sam Bradford	-23	-2	-15	13	-10	-30	-1	-11	-6
Peyton Manning	18	21	4	30	23	6	25	19	24
Tony Banks	1	-6	-14	23	3	24	3	6	9
Byron Leftwich	12	-2	1	28	12	-5	8	-3	6
Kerry Collins	24	12	8	31	25	6	23	14	24
Christian Ponder	27	-7	-8	32	14	27	6	2	10
Ryan Tannehill	6	-3	17	-4	6	-19	0	-10	-4
David Carr	15	19	15	-19	11	67	11	40	25
Vince Young	35	8	-12	-14	4	1	-3	6	-3
Mark buttfumble	5	-5	0	42	15	14	13	1	16
Joey Harrington	20	0	4	-5	8	0	0	0	0
AVERAGE	9.058824	2.235294	5.647059	11.82353	9.882353	6.352941	7.352941	5	8.705882
STANDARD DEV	15.45748	12.11161	12.92256	19.04677	11.60755	20.87146	12.01531	14.23025	13.03728
TANNEHILL Z-SCORE	-0.19789	-0.43225	0.878536	-0.83077	-0.33447	-1.21472	-0.61196	-1.05409	-0.97458

That almost all of the values in the bottom row entitled "Tannehill Z-score" have an absolute value no greater than 1.0 reflects the fact that Tannehill's increases or decreases with regard to these variables were not significantly different from that of the average QB from year one to year two.

The lone two variables where there were exceptions were sack percentage, where his increase was 1.2 standard deviations greater than that of the average QB from year one to year two, and net YPA, which accounts for passing attempts, passing yards, sacks, and yards lost on sacks, and where his decrease was a shade more than a standard deviation greater than that of the average QB from year one to year two. His decrease in adjusted net YPA was nearly a standard deviation greater than that of the average QB from year one to year two.

 

[Phins117]

I don't care about stats. I care about winning drives and leadership. And honestly I don't see much of any of that with RT atm. I am not saying we draft a new QB but RT needs to improve and become a REAL leader on this team. Every QB needs to be a leader but also needs to WANT the ball in his hands with final moments on the clock and win the game, no matter how ****ty our Oline is or the offense. Win games yourself and be a leader.

 

[shoveyjoe2442]

I don't care about stats. I care about winning drives and leadership. And honestly I don't see much of any of that with RT atm. I am not saying we draft a new QB but RT needs to improve and become a REAL leader on this team. Every QB needs to be a leader but also needs to WANT the ball in his hands with final moments on the clock and win the game, no matter how ****ty our Oline is or the offense. Win games yourself and be a leader.

Except that Tannehill lead multiple game winning drives and his team lead the league in scoring in drives at the end of half. Anyways , Tannehill gets one more year from me.

 

[Hayden Fox]

RT is a young QB that is going to take time. I am not sure where people think he should be at this point.

I thought he would take forever to get better. He has caught on in much more rapid fashion then I expected.

 

[LandShark13]

Any Qb that showed improvement behind that Offensive line with basically zero running game should get mad props.

 

[Phinatic8u]

I actually forgot how much of a sophomore slump Matt Ryan had.

Also I'd like to see how there running attack did and how that affected there PA passing.

 

[ANUFan]

RT is a young QB that is going to take time. I am not sure where people think he should be at this point.

I thought he would take forever to get better. He has caught on in much more rapid fashion then I expected.

Unfortunately, I think players like Foles and Wilson have skewed peoples thinking even more so than normal. Thus, they expect players at the QB position to be Payton Manning and Tom Brady in their second year. I personally like Tannehill and what I've seen of him. Certainly, there are things he needs to work on, But I'm excited from what I've seen from this young player and look forward to seeing what he can do with an improve OL and a respectable running game.

I've gotten a chance to watch a few other QBs for other NFL teams. It confirmed what i already knew: We are damn lucky to have a young QB like Tannehill.

 

[Shouright]

I neglected to include Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson, and RGIII in the above. When their data are added, the new values in the bottom row of the table in the OP don't change sufficiently to permit any different conclusion. Tannehill's decrease in net YPA drops below a standard deviation from the norm, however.

 

[Atila]

Yeah, but the two places we see a major change, negatively, for Tannehill are because of sacks - his sack percentage is way higher because our OL is **** (a fact that you used stats to prove) and then his net YPA will be affected because of the number of sacks.

So you're saying he had an average improvement from year 1 to year 2 in pretty much everything he can control. Okay, that's fine... it's not really saying anything. But I'm not sure if you had a point with this post or if you were just trying to start a conversation.

 

[Wildbill3]

Yeah, but the two places we see a major change, negatively, for Tannehill are because of sacks - his sack percentage is way higher because our OL is **** (a fact that you used stats to prove) and then his net YPA will be affected because of the number of sacks.

So you're saying he had an average improvement from year 1 to year 2 in pretty much everything he can control. Okay, that's fine... it's not really saying anything. But I'm not sure if you had a point with this post or if you were just trying to start a conversation.

Surely everyone realizes that's his game by now. Offer up stats without the benefit of analysis or opinion, then laugh as those who defend tannehill take to defending the young qb against the negative, and continues to laugh as those who would trash tannehill by using the stats. Game on I suppose.

 

[justdon]

I say build an oline and get a running game.And we will find out what we have as a qb.

 

[Shouright]

Yeah, but the two places we see a major change, negatively, for Tannehill are because of sacks - his sack percentage is way higher because our OL is **** (a fact that you used stats to prove) and then his net YPA will be affected because of the number of sacks.

So you're saying he had an average improvement from year 1 to year 2 in pretty much everything he can control. Okay, that's fine... it's not really saying anything. But I'm not sure if you had a point with this post or if you were just trying to start a conversation.

Sure it is. It's saying his improvement wasn't greater than that of the average QB who's started at least 10 games as a rookie and as a second-year player since the salary cap was instituted.

 

[Phindog]

Any Qb that showed improvement behind that Offensive line with basically zero running game should get mad props.

The OPer showed me in the last 8 months or so how useless football stats are.The more I read them, the more I realize they are the polar opposite of what football is about and why I watch it.It's why stats are and will always be secondary in football.Stats are more true in bowling,golf, boxing where it's 1 person against the opponent(s)

 

[Sons Of Shula]

More numerical vomit.

 

[gofins60]

Except that Tannehill lead multiple game winning drives and his team lead the league in scoring in drives at the end of half. Anyways , Tannehill gets one more year from me.

Not a knock on Tannehill personally, but "lead the league in scoring in drives at the end of half" is a meaningless stat when your offense goes the whole half without scoring until the last drive.