Samphin's keys to the game -week 1 Denver Broncos

[34ibon99]

Hi Fish fans...are you guys gettin' pumped yet? Three days and counting...

Interesting analysis on the Broncs. I'd like to weigh in with some non-smack/more intelligent conversation. Here's my own analysis.

OK...good question...one we've heard from everyone else as well, so let me respond.

First, the "Browncos" players were brought in to be added to a unit that finished 4th in the NFL last year. Talent has never been the issue with any of these guys, with Brown, Ekuban, and Warren all high 1st rounders and Engleberger a 2nd. It's been more a situation thing, with Cleveland failing to utilize these players talents and a general breakdown of their whole team. So far things appear to be much different with them in Denver. Pre-season returns are in and you should know that this defensive line wasn't just good...they were VERY good. Shanny's said he'll be dissapointed if Warren isn't in the pro-bowl this year. Engleberger has been a terror off the edge. If Brown can somehow stay healthy and play to his potential, this is a dominating defensive line. He has yet to even step on the field but will be in uniform for this game.

Second, our 4th ranked defense from last year was missing All Pro DE Trevor Pryce, who has returned healthy and also been moved to the right side where he's going to be considerably more dangerous rushing the passer than he was playing inside at DT or on the right side at DE. We are better just on this addition alone.

Third, I did a little checking on how the Fish performed last year against these same defensive line guys when they were in Cleveland. Miami got just 10 points and averaged only 3.9 yards per play. Obviously Ricky Williams was missing, but I'll address that in a minute.

Obviously in the NFL if you can run on somebody you'll probably win, but I'm looking for a reason to believe that Miami has a better running game than last year, or actually since RW was gone in 2004, let's say a better running game than 2003 when Williams was available. Ricky averaged a woefull 3.5 yards per carry in 2003 and I don't see the current O-line operating with Brown, a rookie in his first real NFL game to be any real improvement. Miami finished a pathetic 27th in YPC average in 2003, dropping to 32nd last year with Ricky gone. So even if you consider Brown as good as Ricky was in 2003, a (very questionable assumption since he's playing his first game) it is unlikely your rushing game has improved much based on the talent level. Perhaps schemes and coaching can impact that however. We shall see. Denver's D finished 4th against the run last year even without Pryce, and by all accounts we are not just better, but much deeper as well, able to rotate two full units of talented D-line guys in and out. This will be helpful if it's hot. I understand it's going to be 90 with the usual humidity. Tough, but not worse than the Arizona game last week where it was 100 at game time and obviously much hotter on the field. Our 2nd unit beat the Cards starters in that game.

All three rookies have been outstanding so far but you won't see all three in there at once, two at the most if we go dime. Darrent Williams at CB has been sensational and he's the nicklel back. He's being talked about as a potential starter by the middle of this year. Don't let the 5'8" stature fool you. This dude can play, and he can also pack a big wallop. I doubt he'll take Boston though if he's in there, more likely Walls who is 6'4" will be on him. Bailey says he's 100% and he was held out the last two games purely for precaution. Ferguson's been solid at safety but Lynch is the guy I'd throw at. He still hits a ton but has lost a step in coverage.

OK...Keith Traylor...I'm amazed to see Keith is up to 337 pounds? Is that true? This guy started with us a 260 lb LB a LONG time ago. One thing you need to realize, is that big, heavy, and especially OLD D-line guys are not a good antidote for this this type of running game. Denver's O-line forces the opposing D-line to move laterally on every running play instead of straight ahead. Traylor is not the guy I'd want in the middle for this job. He's big, but slow and easy to cut for our quick and mobile guys up front. On a unit that fell all the way from 5th to 31st against the run from '03 to '04 it's not a good thing to have oldsters like Traylor and the ancient Junior Seau still starting. I look for Denver to run at will against this unit unless sloppy field conditions make footing a factor. In last years game the Broncos rolled up 196 yards on the ground to 70 for the Fish and dominated them in time of possession outgaining the Fish 415 to 215 in total offense. Miami had a woefull 3.5 yard per play but kept it close on the strength of winning the turnover battle 3-1. Traylor, Junior and ZT are all a year older now. That can't be a good thing.

Yea...everyone's gonne get in their shots on Jake, and deservedly so. But perhaps the most notable thing about our preseason was the plays Jake DIDN'T make. Zero interceptions. He seems to be finally picking up the right habits in our offense. The best play I saw this preseason was Jake rolling out on our 6 yard line, and you could see a WR come open 10 yards downfield...not wide open though...just a step. It looked possible to hit him from the end zone view, but Jake pulled it down and took the 2 yard loss instead of risking the pick. We'll see if he's learned the lessons well or not now that it's the real thing. Blitzing may work, but remember that Jake is significantly better outside the pocket than he is in it. That strategy could backfire.

Final thoughts...a lot of people are looking at the close game last year in Denver as an indicator, but that's usually iffy to compare year to year results. The game was closer than expected because of the turnovers we had but Denver has also shown a tendency to wear down in the second half of the year. We went 7-3 in the first 10 games last year and 3-3 down the stretch. This has been an ongoing problem and there are some reasons for it but the main thing I see here is that the Miami game last year was played in week 14. Don't expect a repeat performance in the opening game.

Special teams were our albatross last year, and the punting game should be much better with Todd Saurbrun here now. KO and punt coverage units concern me however. If the Fish can break a big play or two there they could hang in there and make it closer than I expect.

Finally, Bronco fans have certainly seen much more of Gus than you guys have, and when I say we don't fear this guy...that's an understatement. Gus is basically a statue in the pocket, and as a journeyman career backup, he's the easiest assignment QB-wise we face this year, with the possible exception of Patrick Ramsey in Washington. With a rookie runner in his first game, a rookie head coach, a defense that ranked at the bottom of the league last year in stopping the run and Gus at QB, I'll be dissapointed if we don't beat the Fish by 20. Prediction: Denver 34 Miami 10

By 20? Wow your optimist buddy

 

[Kaylore]

Hi Fish fans...are you guys gettin' pumped yet? Three days and counting...

Interesting analysis on the Broncs. I'd like to weigh in with some non-smack/more intelligent conversation. Here's my own analysis.

OK...good question...one we've heard from everyone else as well, so let me respond.

First, the "Browncos" players were brought in to be added to a unit that finished 4th in the NFL last year. Talent has never been the issue with any of these guys, with Brown, Ekuban, and Warren all high 1st rounders and Engleberger a 2nd. It's been more a situation thing, with Cleveland failing to utilize these players talents and a general breakdown of their whole team. So far things appear to be much different with them in Denver. Pre-season returns are in and you should know that this defensive line wasn't just good...they were VERY good. Shanny's said he'll be dissapointed if Warren isn't in the pro-bowl this year. Engleberger has been a terror off the edge. If Brown can somehow stay healthy and play to his potential, this is a dominating defensive line. He has yet to even step on the field but will be in uniform for this game.

Second, our 4th ranked defense from last year was missing All Pro DE Trevor Pryce, who has returned healthy and also been moved to the right side where he's going to be considerably more dangerous rushing the passer than he was playing inside at DT or on the right side at DE. We are better just on this addition alone.

Third, I did a little checking on how the Fish performed last year against these same defensive line guys when they were in Cleveland. Miami got just 10 points and averaged only 3.9 yards per play. Obviously Ricky Williams was missing, but I'll address that in a minute.

Obviously in the NFL if you can run on somebody you'll probably win, but I'm looking for a reason to believe that Miami has a better running game than last year, or actually since RW was gone in 2004, let's say a better running game than 2003 when Williams was available. Ricky averaged a woefull 3.5 yards per carry in 2003 and I don't see the current O-line operating with Brown, a rookie in his first real NFL game to be any real improvement. Miami finished a pathetic 27th in YPC average in 2003, dropping to 32nd last year with Ricky gone. So even if you consider Brown as good as Ricky was in 2003, a (very questionable assumption since he's playing his first game) it is unlikely your rushing game has improved much based on the talent level. Perhaps schemes and coaching can impact that however. We shall see. Denver's D finished 4th against the run last year even without Pryce, and by all accounts we are not just better, but much deeper as well, able to rotate two full units of talented D-line guys in and out. This will be helpful if it's hot. I understand it's going to be 90 with the usual humidity. Tough, but not worse than the Arizona game last week where it was 100 at game time and obviously much hotter on the field. Our 2nd unit beat the Cards starters in that game.

All three rookies have been outstanding so far but you won't see all three in there at once, two at the most if we go dime. Darrent Williams at CB has been sensational and he's the nicklel back. He's being talked about as a potential starter by the middle of this year. Don't let the 5'8" stature fool you. This dude can play, and he can also pack a big wallop. I doubt he'll take Boston though if he's in there, more likely Walls who is 6'4" will be on him. Bailey says he's 100% and he was held out the last two games purely for precaution. Ferguson's been solid at safety but Lynch is the guy I'd throw at. He still hits a ton but has lost a step in coverage.

OK...Keith Traylor...I'm amazed to see Keith is up to 337 pounds? Is that true? This guy started with us a 260 lb LB a LONG time ago. One thing you need to realize, is that big, heavy, and especially OLD D-line guys are not a good antidote for this this type of running game. Denver's O-line forces the opposing D-line to move laterally on every running play instead of straight ahead. Traylor is not the guy I'd want in the middle for this job. He's big, but slow and easy to cut for our quick and mobile guys up front. On a unit that fell all the way from 5th to 31st against the run from '03 to '04 it's not a good thing to have oldsters like Traylor and the ancient Junior Seau still starting. I look for Denver to run at will against this unit unless sloppy field conditions make footing a factor. In last years game the Broncos rolled up 196 yards on the ground to 70 for the Fish and dominated them in time of possession outgaining the Fish 415 to 215 in total offense. Miami had a woefull 3.5 yard per play but kept it close on the strength of winning the turnover battle 3-1. Traylor, Junior and ZT are all a year older now. That can't be a good thing.

Yea...everyone's gonne get in their shots on Jake, and deservedly so. But perhaps the most notable thing about our preseason was the plays Jake DIDN'T make. Zero interceptions. He seems to be finally picking up the right habits in our offense. The best play I saw this preseason was Jake rolling out on our 6 yard line, and you could see a WR come open 10 yards downfield...not wide open though...just a step. It looked possible to hit him from the end zone view, but Jake pulled it down and took the 2 yard loss instead of risking the pick. We'll see if he's learned the lessons well or not now that it's the real thing. Blitzing may work, but remember that Jake is significantly better outside the pocket than he is in it. That strategy could backfire.

Final thoughts...a lot of people are looking at the close game last year in Denver as an indicator, but that's usually iffy to compare year to year results. The game was closer than expected because of the turnovers we had but Denver has also shown a tendency to wear down in the second half of the year. We went 7-3 in the first 10 games last year and 3-3 down the stretch. This has been an ongoing problem and there are some reasons for it but the main thing I see here is that the Miami game last year was played in week 14. Don't expect a repeat performance in the opening game.

Special teams were our albatross last year, and the punting game should be much better with Todd Saurbrun here now. KO and punt coverage units concern me however. If the Fish can break a big play or two there they could hang in there and make it closer than I expect.

Finally, Bronco fans have certainly seen much more of Gus than you guys have, and when I say we don't fear this guy...that's an understatement. Gus is basically a statue in the pocket, and as a journeyman career backup, he's the easiest assignment QB-wise we face this year, with the possible exception of Patrick Ramsey in Washington. With a rookie runner in his first game, a rookie head coach, a defense that ranked at the bottom of the league last year in stopping the run and Gus at QB, I'll be dissapointed if we don't beat the Fish by 20. Prediction: Denver 34 Miami 10

Great post. I do think the heat will be more of a factor and I think the score will be closer. However, I'm predicting a Bronco win.

 

[Al13]

Hi Fish fans...are you guys gettin' pumped yet? Three days and counting...

Interesting analysis on the Broncs. I'd like to weigh in with some non-smack/more intelligent conversation. Here's my own analysis.

OK...good question...one we've heard from everyone else as well, so let me respond.

First, the "Browncos" players were brought in to be added to a unit that finished 4th in the NFL last year. Talent has never been the issue with any of these guys, with Brown, Ekuban, and Warren all high 1st rounders and Engleberger a 2nd. It's been more a situation thing, with Cleveland failing to utilize these players talents and a general breakdown of their whole team. So far things appear to be much different with them in Denver. Pre-season returns are in and you should know that this defensive line wasn't just good...they were VERY good. Shanny's said he'll be dissapointed if Warren isn't in the pro-bowl this year. Engleberger has been a terror off the edge. If Brown can somehow stay healthy and play to his potential, this is a dominating defensive line. He has yet to even step on the field but will be in uniform for this game.

Second, our 4th ranked defense from last year was missing All Pro DE Trevor Pryce, who has returned healthy and also been moved to the right side where he's going to be considerably more dangerous rushing the passer than he was playing inside at DT or on the right side at DE. We are better just on this addition alone.

Third, I did a little checking on how the Fish performed last year against these same defensive line guys when they were in Cleveland. Miami got just 10 points and averaged only 3.9 yards per play. Obviously Ricky Williams was missing, but I'll address that in a minute.

Obviously in the NFL if you can run on somebody you'll probably win, but I'm looking for a reason to believe that Miami has a better running game than last year, or actually since RW was gone in 2004, let's say a better running game than 2003 when Williams was available. Ricky averaged a woefull 3.5 yards per carry in 2003 and I don't see the current O-line operating with Brown, a rookie in his first real NFL game to be any real improvement. Miami finished a pathetic 27th in YPC average in 2003, dropping to 32nd last year with Ricky gone. So even if you consider Brown as good as Ricky was in 2003, a (very questionable assumption since he's playing his first game) it is unlikely your rushing game has improved much based on the talent level. Perhaps schemes and coaching can impact that however. We shall see. Denver's D finished 4th against the run last year even without Pryce, and by all accounts we are not just better, but much deeper as well, able to rotate two full units of talented D-line guys in and out. This will be helpful if it's hot. I understand it's going to be 90 with the usual humidity. Tough, but not worse than the Arizona game last week where it was 100 at game time and obviously much hotter on the field. Our 2nd unit beat the Cards starters in that game.

All three rookies have been outstanding so far but you won't see all three in there at once, two at the most if we go dime. Darrent Williams at CB has been sensational and he's the nicklel back. He's being talked about as a potential starter by the middle of this year. Don't let the 5'8" stature fool you. This dude can play, and he can also pack a big wallop. I doubt he'll take Boston though if he's in there, more likely Walls who is 6'4" will be on him. Bailey says he's 100% and he was held out the last two games purely for precaution. Ferguson's been solid at safety but Lynch is the guy I'd throw at. He still hits a ton but has lost a step in coverage.

OK...Keith Traylor...I'm amazed to see Keith is up to 337 pounds? Is that true? This guy started with us a 260 lb LB a LONG time ago. One thing you need to realize, is that big, heavy, and especially OLD D-line guys are not a good antidote for this this type of running game. Denver's O-line forces the opposing D-line to move laterally on every running play instead of straight ahead. Traylor is not the guy I'd want in the middle for this job. He's big, but slow and easy to cut for our quick and mobile guys up front. On a unit that fell all the way from 5th to 31st against the run from '03 to '04 it's not a good thing to have oldsters like Traylor and the ancient Junior Seau still starting. I look for Denver to run at will against this unit unless sloppy field conditions make footing a factor. In last years game the Broncos rolled up 196 yards on the ground to 70 for the Fish and dominated them in time of possession outgaining the Fish 415 to 215 in total offense. Miami had a woefull 3.5 yard per play but kept it close on the strength of winning the turnover battle 3-1. Traylor, Junior and ZT are all a year older now. That can't be a good thing.

Yea...everyone's gonne get in their shots on Jake, and deservedly so. But perhaps the most notable thing about our preseason was the plays Jake DIDN'T make. Zero interceptions. He seems to be finally picking up the right habits in our offense. The best play I saw this preseason was Jake rolling out on our 6 yard line, and you could see a WR come open 10 yards downfield...not wide open though...just a step. It looked possible to hit him from the end zone view, but Jake pulled it down and took the 2 yard loss instead of risking the pick. We'll see if he's learned the lessons well or not now that it's the real thing. Blitzing may work, but remember that Jake is significantly better outside the pocket than he is in it. That strategy could backfire.

Final thoughts...a lot of people are looking at the close game last year in Denver as an indicator, but that's usually iffy to compare year to year results. The game was closer than expected because of the turnovers we had but Denver has also shown a tendency to wear down in the second half of the year. We went 7-3 in the first 10 games last year and 3-3 down the stretch. This has been an ongoing problem and there are some reasons for it but the main thing I see here is that the Miami game last year was played in week 14. Don't expect a repeat performance in the opening game.

Special teams were our albatross last year, and the punting game should be much better with Todd Saurbrun here now. KO and punt coverage units concern me however. If the Fish can break a big play or two there they could hang in there and make it closer than I expect.

Finally, Bronco fans have certainly seen much more of Gus than you guys have, and when I say we don't fear this guy...that's an understatement. Gus is basically a statue in the pocket, and as a journeyman career backup, he's the easiest assignment QB-wise we face this year, with the possible exception of Patrick Ramsey in Washington. With a rookie runner in his first game, a rookie head coach, a defense that ranked at the bottom of the league last year in stopping the run and Gus at QB, I'll be dissapointed if we don't beat the Fish by 20. Prediction: Denver 34 Miami 10

wow as reasonable as your points might be, any credibility got lost when you pick your team to win by 20 points ON THE ROAD in the heat that will grind on your team in the 4th quarter. your secondary and LB will have a tough time if you have to account for chambers, booker, boston, mcmichael and ronnie brown at the same time and i don´t care if the qb is gus frerotte or not, he showed in minny that he can play when he has the playmakers and he has them in miami for sure, i won´t predict a result but i say miami wins a close one in the 4th quarter when your team is tired

 

[finfan54]

even if we completely shut down the denver running game we will still lose this game if we do not get consistent pressure on jake the snake. imo getting in plummer's grill is more important than shutting down their run.

They go hand in hand. Stop the run, then pressure on passing downs. It still remains the same other than we have a totally different scheme which is based around blitzes and mixing coverages with JT and such.

 

[adamprez2003]

Hi Fish fans...are you guys gettin' pumped yet? Three days and counting...

Interesting analysis on the Broncs. I'd like to weigh in with some non-smack/more intelligent conversation. Here's my own analysis.

OK...good question...one we've heard from everyone else as well, so let me respond.

First, the "Browncos" players were brought in to be added to a unit that finished 4th in the NFL last year. Talent has never been the issue with any of these guys, with Brown, Ekuban, and Warren all high 1st rounders and Engleberger a 2nd. It's been more a situation thing, with Cleveland failing to utilize these players talents and a general breakdown of their whole team. So far things appear to be much different with them in Denver. Pre-season returns are in and you should know that this defensive line wasn't just good...they were VERY good. Shanny's said he'll be dissapointed if Warren isn't in the pro-bowl this year. Engleberger has been a terror off the edge. If Brown can somehow stay healthy and play to his potential, this is a dominating defensive line. He has yet to even step on the field but will be in uniform for this game.

Second, our 4th ranked defense from last year was missing All Pro DE Trevor Pryce, who has returned healthy and also been moved to the right side where he's going to be considerably more dangerous rushing the passer than he was playing inside at DT or on the right side at DE. We are better just on this addition alone.

Third, I did a little checking on how the Fish performed last year against these same defensive line guys when they were in Cleveland. Miami got just 10 points and averaged only 3.9 yards per play. Obviously Ricky Williams was missing, but I'll address that in a minute.

Obviously in the NFL if you can run on somebody you'll probably win, but I'm looking for a reason to believe that Miami has a better running game than last year, or actually since RW was gone in 2004, let's say a better running game than 2003 when Williams was available. Ricky averaged a woefull 3.5 yards per carry in 2003 and I don't see the current O-line operating with Brown, a rookie in his first real NFL game to be any real improvement. Miami finished a pathetic 27th in YPC average in 2003, dropping to 32nd last year with Ricky gone. So even if you consider Brown as good as Ricky was in 2003, a (very questionable assumption since he's playing his first game) it is unlikely your rushing game has improved much based on the talent level. Perhaps schemes and coaching can impact that however. We shall see. Denver's D finished 4th against the run last year even without Pryce, and by all accounts we are not just better, but much deeper as well, able to rotate two full units of talented D-line guys in and out. This will be helpful if it's hot. I understand it's going to be 90 with the usual humidity. Tough, but not worse than the Arizona game last week where it was 100 at game time and obviously much hotter on the field. Our 2nd unit beat the Cards starters in that game.

All three rookies have been outstanding so far but you won't see all three in there at once, two at the most if we go dime. Darrent Williams at CB has been sensational and he's the nicklel back. He's being talked about as a potential starter by the middle of this year. Don't let the 5'8" stature fool you. This dude can play, and he can also pack a big wallop. I doubt he'll take Boston though if he's in there, more likely Walls who is 6'4" will be on him. Bailey says he's 100% and he was held out the last two games purely for precaution. Ferguson's been solid at safety but Lynch is the guy I'd throw at. He still hits a ton but has lost a step in coverage.

OK...Keith Traylor...I'm amazed to see Keith is up to 337 pounds? Is that true? This guy started with us a 260 lb LB a LONG time ago. One thing you need to realize, is that big, heavy, and especially OLD D-line guys are not a good antidote for this this type of running game. Denver's O-line forces the opposing D-line to move laterally on every running play instead of straight ahead. Traylor is not the guy I'd want in the middle for this job. He's big, but slow and easy to cut for our quick and mobile guys up front. On a unit that fell all the way from 5th to 31st against the run from '03 to '04 it's not a good thing to have oldsters like Traylor and the ancient Junior Seau still starting. I look for Denver to run at will against this unit unless sloppy field conditions make footing a factor. In last years game the Broncos rolled up 196 yards on the ground to 70 for the Fish and dominated them in time of possession outgaining the Fish 415 to 215 in total offense. Miami had a woefull 3.5 yard per play but kept it close on the strength of winning the turnover battle 3-1. Traylor, Junior and ZT are all a year older now. That can't be a good thing.

Yea...everyone's gonne get in their shots on Jake, and deservedly so. But perhaps the most notable thing about our preseason was the plays Jake DIDN'T make. Zero interceptions. He seems to be finally picking up the right habits in our offense. The best play I saw this preseason was Jake rolling out on our 6 yard line, and you could see a WR come open 10 yards downfield...not wide open though...just a step. It looked possible to hit him from the end zone view, but Jake pulled it down and took the 2 yard loss instead of risking the pick. We'll see if he's learned the lessons well or not now that it's the real thing. Blitzing may work, but remember that Jake is significantly better outside the pocket than he is in it. That strategy could backfire.

Final thoughts...a lot of people are looking at the close game last year in Denver as an indicator, but that's usually iffy to compare year to year results. The game was closer than expected because of the turnovers we had but Denver has also shown a tendency to wear down in the second half of the year. We went 7-3 in the first 10 games last year and 3-3 down the stretch. This has been an ongoing problem and there are some reasons for it but the main thing I see here is that the Miami game last year was played in week 14. Don't expect a repeat performance in the opening game.

Special teams were our albatross last year, and the punting game should be much better with Todd Saurbrun here now. KO and punt coverage units concern me however. If the Fish can break a big play or two there they could hang in there and make it closer than I expect.

Finally, Bronco fans have certainly seen much more of Gus than you guys have, and when I say we don't fear this guy...that's an understatement. Gus is basically a statue in the pocket, and as a journeyman career backup, he's the easiest assignment QB-wise we face this year, with the possible exception of Patrick Ramsey in Washington. With a rookie runner in his first game, a rookie head coach, a defense that ranked at the bottom of the league last year in stopping the run and Gus at QB, I'll be dissapointed if we don't beat the Fish by 20. Prediction: Denver 34 Miami 10

Very nice write up. Sad to say I agree with you. I think you guys are lucky to be playing us this early. I think we would give you a much better game later in the year, once our team starts to jell. Interesting to hear about your rookie DBs. If they are the real deal you guys or the Chargers should win your division. Anyway here's to hoping Welker has 150 return yards and two TDs :evil:

 

[arsenal]

Hi Fish fans...are you guys gettin' pumped yet? Three days and counting...

Interesting analysis on the Broncs. I'd like to weigh in with some non-smack/more intelligent conversation. Here's my own analysis.

OK...good question...one we've heard from everyone else as well, so let me respond.

First, the "Browncos" players were brought in to be added to a unit that finished 4th in the NFL last year. Talent has never been the issue with any of these guys, with Brown, Ekuban, and Warren all high 1st rounders and Engleberger a 2nd. It's been more a situation thing, with Cleveland failing to utilize these players talents and a general breakdown of their whole team. So far things appear to be much different with them in Denver. Pre-season returns are in and you should know that this defensive line wasn't just good...they were VERY good. Shanny's said he'll be dissapointed if Warren isn't in the pro-bowl this year. Engleberger has been a terror off the edge. If Brown can somehow stay healthy and play to his potential, this is a dominating defensive line. He has yet to even step on the field but will be in uniform for this game.

Second, our 4th ranked defense from last year was missing All Pro DE Trevor Pryce, who has returned healthy and also been moved to the right side where he's going to be considerably more dangerous rushing the passer than he was playing inside at DT or on the right side at DE. We are better just on this addition alone.

Third, I did a little checking on how the Fish performed last year against these same defensive line guys when they were in Cleveland. Miami got just 10 points and averaged only 3.9 yards per play. Obviously Ricky Williams was missing, but I'll address that in a minute.

Obviously in the NFL if you can run on somebody you'll probably win, but I'm looking for a reason to believe that Miami has a better running game than last year, or actually since RW was gone in 2004, let's say a better running game than 2003 when Williams was available. Ricky averaged a woefull 3.5 yards per carry in 2003 and I don't see the current O-line operating with Brown, a rookie in his first real NFL game to be any real improvement. Miami finished a pathetic 27th in YPC average in 2003, dropping to 32nd last year with Ricky gone. So even if you consider Brown as good as Ricky was in 2003, a (very questionable assumption since he's playing his first game) it is unlikely your rushing game has improved much based on the talent level. Perhaps schemes and coaching can impact that however. We shall see. Denver's D finished 4th against the run last year even without Pryce, and by all accounts we are not just better, but much deeper as well, able to rotate two full units of talented D-line guys in and out. This will be helpful if it's hot. I understand it's going to be 90 with the usual humidity. Tough, but not worse than the Arizona game last week where it was 100 at game time and obviously much hotter on the field. Our 2nd unit beat the Cards starters in that game.

All three rookies have been outstanding so far but you won't see all three in there at once, two at the most if we go dime. Darrent Williams at CB has been sensational and he's the nicklel back. He's being talked about as a potential starter by the middle of this year. Don't let the 5'8" stature fool you. This dude can play, and he can also pack a big wallop. I doubt he'll take Boston though if he's in there, more likely Walls who is 6'4" will be on him. Bailey says he's 100% and he was held out the last two games purely for precaution. Ferguson's been solid at safety but Lynch is the guy I'd throw at. He still hits a ton but has lost a step in coverage.

OK...Keith Traylor...I'm amazed to see Keith is up to 337 pounds? Is that true? This guy started with us a 260 lb LB a LONG time ago. One thing you need to realize, is that big, heavy, and especially OLD D-line guys are not a good antidote for this this type of running game. Denver's O-line forces the opposing D-line to move laterally on every running play instead of straight ahead. Traylor is not the guy I'd want in the middle for this job. He's big, but slow and easy to cut for our quick and mobile guys up front. On a unit that fell all the way from 5th to 31st against the run from '03 to '04 it's not a good thing to have oldsters like Traylor and the ancient Junior Seau still starting. I look for Denver to run at will against this unit unless sloppy field conditions make footing a factor. In last years game the Broncos rolled up 196 yards on the ground to 70 for the Fish and dominated them in time of possession outgaining the Fish 415 to 215 in total offense. Miami had a woefull 3.5 yard per play but kept it close on the strength of winning the turnover battle 3-1. Traylor, Junior and ZT are all a year older now. That can't be a good thing.

Yea...everyone's gonne get in their shots on Jake, and deservedly so. But perhaps the most notable thing about our preseason was the plays Jake DIDN'T make. Zero interceptions. He seems to be finally picking up the right habits in our offense. The best play I saw this preseason was Jake rolling out on our 6 yard line, and you could see a WR come open 10 yards downfield...not wide open though...just a step. It looked possible to hit him from the end zone view, but Jake pulled it down and took the 2 yard loss instead of risking the pick. We'll see if he's learned the lessons well or not now that it's the real thing. Blitzing may work, but remember that Jake is significantly better outside the pocket than he is in it. That strategy could backfire.

Final thoughts...a lot of people are looking at the close game last year in Denver as an indicator, but that's usually iffy to compare year to year results. The game was closer than expected because of the turnovers we had but Denver has also shown a tendency to wear down in the second half of the year. We went 7-3 in the first 10 games last year and 3-3 down the stretch. This has been an ongoing problem and there are some reasons for it but the main thing I see here is that the Miami game last year was played in week 14. Don't expect a repeat performance in the opening game.

Special teams were our albatross last year, and the punting game should be much better with Todd Saurbrun here now. KO and punt coverage units concern me however. If the Fish can break a big play or two there they could hang in there and make it closer than I expect.

Finally, Bronco fans have certainly seen much more of Gus than you guys have, and when I say we don't fear this guy...that's an understatement. Gus is basically a statue in the pocket, and as a journeyman career backup, he's the easiest assignment QB-wise we face this year, with the possible exception of Patrick Ramsey in Washington. With a rookie runner in his first game, a rookie head coach, a defense that ranked at the bottom of the league last year in stopping the run and Gus at QB, I'll be dissapointed if we don't beat the Fish by 20. Prediction: Denver 34 Miami 10

just of note, this team is completely different than the one last year, and even more changed than the team of 2 years ago... thats one of the hardest parts about predicting how we are going to do... coaching changes, philosophy changes, player/starters changing... its a lot of new things and its really not effective taking stats from 2003 and 2004 to see how we will do... the way i look at the game is much more simple than all this...

anyone whos taken even 5 minutes to analyze the dolphins knows we are a better team than last year... a MUCH better team in almost every category, coaching, running game, passing game, defensive front 4, linebacker core and depth... only drop off might be in the secondary, but really last year our safety play was suspect and our number 2 ranking was more because teams didn't have to throw when they ran all over us... we played you guys last year in denver and you won by a late field goal... you guys are basically the same offense, facing our much improved defense, and your defensive line has shuffled but you dont know how they will come together, the fact that our team is 100x improved and you beat us by 3 in DENVER last year makes it crazy that you say you'l lwin by 20 in miami this year... just doesn't make sense...

 

[Justasportsfan]

One key to the game is to NOT have Gus Ferotte hit the wall again....

I don't think you want that to happen. Sage looks better than Gus.

 

[HULKFish]

Sounds like we have a group of fans here who know there stuff...

I agree with the points although we can not go into this game thinking that there D-line is a weakness, that's a good way to have panic on the O-line if it starts out tough.

As I've said in previous posts I think you'll see a good bit of zone in the secondary with a ton of blitzing fronts to initially stop the run. I think we'll probably see a good deal of zone-blitzing schemes also with JT and Zach dropping with Crowder and Bowens or Spragan blitzing.

Saban will undoubtedly stay away from leaving the corners on a island...

 

[Fran2fin]

Well, Sunday should be one of the most anticipated openers for the Miami Dolphins ever. New coach, new quarterback, new offensive and defensive systems. Basically, and mercifully, nothing like last year's debalce of a team. With all the new shiny things, hopefulyl comes a new attitude, one that allows our players to compete and have a gameplan that is actually useful as well as adaptable to expose in game weaknesses that are found.

Now, this won't be a post where I say we need to tackle better, stay disciplined and not got penalties. Those go without saying. This post here is more of a gameplan to beat the Broncos.

Week 1 sees us taking on Denver. A solid middle of the road team that can realistically finish first in its division, or very well finish last. They have some serious strengths but also some glaring holes that Miami will need to capitalize on. So without further introduction...Samphin's keys to the game:


Very fine analysis - lets hope our coaches have evaluated these points as well.........Good luck Fins!

-The D-Line
Denver's d-line is week. Trevor Pryce is the only player on the line that really concerns me. For some strange reason, Denver thought it would be a good idea to import the line of one of the worst teams in the league last year and make it their own. Ebenezer Ekuban, Courtney Brown, Gerard Warren, and Michael Myers have all come over from the Cleveland Browns and make up, along with veterans like Marco Coleman and John Engleberger, one of the least impressive group of guys in the league.
-The Solution
Run. Run often and run right at the line. For how bad Denver's line looks, they make up for it with Linebackers who can run and hit with the best of them. Therefore it is crucial that Ronnie Brown and Sammy Morris are able to get some yards in the middle. The O-line is going to have to drive the d-line back and get on those LB's quickly. Pulling Hadnot on sweeps and counters may be an option to to get those fast linebackers out of position and hopefully get our RB's into the secondary.

-The Secondary
Champ Bailey is good. Champ Bailey is really good. John Lynch, the hard hitting safety, is also in the secondary and the two of them could severly limit thepassing game. Denver also has three rookie CB's to go along with Champ and the rest of the safeties are not world beaters.
-The Solution
Spread them out. As good as Champ Bailey is, he also has a hamstring injury. It isn't anything that will keep him out, but I wouldn't mind testing it by sending Chambers or Boston deep. As I mentioned, Denver has three rookies in their secondary. Three rookies playing their first game in the NFL on one unit isn't something you see very often. Scott Linehan really needs to try and exploit this by getting four receivers on the field for some plays. Chambers, Boston, Booker and Welker could cause the seocndary to have fits, and with Denver's already discussed D-line likely to put little pressure on Frerotte, he, in theory, could have plenty of time to find his veteran receivers.

-The Running Game
It has been said that only two things in life are guarenteed. Death and taxes. You can make an argument that a third should be added: Denver having a 1000 yard runner. Year after year this team seemingly has a different running back break the mark with relative ease. This year should be no different. Talented runners Tatum Bell, and Mike Anderson are joined by Giants castoff and bulldozer Ron Dayne. All three can run well and behind this cut blocking o-line, should be able to have success again this year.
-The Solution
Keith Traylor. More specifically, his gut. Traylor is our replacement for Bowens. He needs to clog up those lanes on the inside and force Denver into second and third and long situations. He will have some help from veterans Zgonina and Holliday but Traylor is going to be key to stopping the run inside. On the outside, Taylor and Carter are going to have to contain because if these backs get to Sam Madison or the other corners, Miami will be in trouble. Another option is to bring a safet up do to Denver's wide receivers but I would like to avoid that due to how vulnerable we could end up being if coverage is blown on a playaction.
-The Passing Game
Jake Plummer has been around for awhile now and knows what he is doing, well with the eexception of his facial hair anyway. He has had a good camp and his two main receivers in Rod Smith and Ashley Lelie are always a threat. Beyond those two though, their isn't much in the way of receivers. Denver has five TE's on their roster and using the west coast offense, you know they will seemingly have at least one in their every down. Putzier is a quality TE.
-The Solution
Blitzkreig. On obvious passing downs, Plummer needs to be pressured and often. Plummer is notorious for making boneheaded or "creative" plays when he is put in a pinch. Sending Seau, Thomas, corners, safeties from all directions is sure to confuse him to the point where he might throw it right to one of our defenders. The key will be to mix it up however. We don't want to just send Seau or Thomas. We also don't want to have Taylor rushing on every play, the key will be to mix it up pre and post snap as to not be so predictable. This defensive scheme is designed to cause turnovers, and it will have to do that early this season to help put the offense in good positions.

So those are some of the main keys I see going into this game. Obviously, in game adjustments will need to be made. However, I feel if Miami sticks to these basic principles this week, they can leave Sunday afternoon with a victory under their belt.

What are your thoughts?

Very fine analysis Samphin - I hope our coaches have evaluated these points as well ...........We need to step up in every aspect and play to our strengths....GO FINS

 

[FakeSpike13]

Hoofbeats: a few points: 1) your D-line was hurt this Off-season by the loss of that DE (i forget his name) that went to the Jags... 10 1/2 sacks last year... replace him with underachievers such as Brown and Warren, and you get less pressure on the QB, meaning that young secondary of yours will get exposed. 2) Towards the end of your post you said Miami was near the bottom of the NFL at stopping the run. True, but we had lost Seau, and more importantly both starting DT's to protect Thomas in our 4-3 scheme. Take into account we have Traylor this year, Kevin Carter, Holliday, etc, and this point shouldn't come into play. 3) You pointed out a 7-3 Den start last year, which means they are fast starters. Usually Miami has an impeccable home september record, so something has to give. I consider this point to be a wash. 4) Plummer has a tendency to melt down on the road, I dont care what he does in preseason. Chokers choke in games that count, not ones that dont.

 

[Canadi-Phin]

This is one of the best threads I've read. Great analysis and biased form both sides. I'm glad that Broncos fans can come on here and actually give their opnions without talking all kinds of smack. Hoofbeats, Your points are very vaild. You using the preseason to talk about how well your Dline is playing can work the other way. Our First string D has played very well all preseason. But neither have played a game that counts. We will all have to wait three more long painful days until we get to see our teams play. Your point about running against us and Traylor not being the solution has some holes. Denver never ran well against us when we had big body Tim Bowens in our line up. Traylor is the same type of player. The big bodies can't be moved laterally which in turn screws up your running lanes because you are expecting movement and linemen start to get stuck together with no lanes. I think this game is going to be close no matter what either side wants to say, the key thing to this game is going to be who wins the turnover battle or that key play, pick for 6, big return on a kickoff. Someting of that nature. Good luck, hopefully there are no injuries and hopefully the Dolphins win. :)

P.S. I actually can't wait to watch the Patriots play tonight, as much as that huts to say, Football is back baby!!!! Whoooooooooo I hope Moss has a huge day against them. 0-1 would be great for the Pats.

 

[Amars]

No dolphins turnover. PLEASE

 

[Samphin]

Hi Fish fans...are you guys gettin' pumped yet? Three days and counting...

Interesting analysis on the Broncs. I'd like to weigh in with some non-smack/more intelligent conversation. Here's my own analysis.

OK...good question...one we've heard from everyone else as well, so let me respond.

First, the "Browncos" players were brought in to be added to a unit that finished 4th in the NFL last year. Talent has never been the issue with any of these guys, with Brown, Ekuban, and Warren all high 1st rounders and Engleberger a 2nd. It's been more a situation thing, with Cleveland failing to utilize these players talents and a general breakdown of their whole team. So far things appear to be much different with them in Denver. Pre-season returns are in and you should know that this defensive line wasn't just good...they were VERY good. Shanny's said he'll be dissapointed if Warren isn't in the pro-bowl this year. Engleberger has been a terror off the edge. If Brown can somehow stay healthy and play to his potential, this is a dominating defensive line. He has yet to even step on the field but will be in uniform for this game.

Second, our 4th ranked defense from last year was missing All Pro DE Trevor Pryce, who has returned healthy and also been moved to the right side where he's going to be considerably more dangerous rushing the passer than he was playing inside at DT or on the right side at DE. We are better just on this addition alone.

Third, I did a little checking on how the Fish performed last year against these same defensive line guys when they were in Cleveland. Miami got just 10 points and averaged only 3.9 yards per play. Obviously Ricky Williams was missing, but I'll address that in a minute.

Obviously in the NFL if you can run on somebody you'll probably win, but I'm looking for a reason to believe that Miami has a better running game than last year, or actually since RW was gone in 2004, let's say a better running game than 2003 when Williams was available. Ricky averaged a woefull 3.5 yards per carry in 2003 and I don't see the current O-line operating with Brown, a rookie in his first real NFL game to be any real improvement. Miami finished a pathetic 27th in YPC average in 2003, dropping to 32nd last year with Ricky gone. So even if you consider Brown as good as Ricky was in 2003, a (very questionable assumption since he's playing his first game) it is unlikely your rushing game has improved much based on the talent level. Perhaps schemes and coaching can impact that however. We shall see. Denver's D finished 4th against the run last year even without Pryce, and by all accounts we are not just better, but much deeper as well, able to rotate two full units of talented D-line guys in and out. This will be helpful if it's hot. I understand it's going to be 90 with the usual humidity. Tough, but not worse than the Arizona game last week where it was 100 at game time and obviously much hotter on the field. Our 2nd unit beat the Cards starters in that game.

All three rookies have been outstanding so far but you won't see all three in there at once, two at the most if we go dime. Darrent Williams at CB has been sensational and he's the nicklel back. He's being talked about as a potential starter by the middle of this year. Don't let the 5'8" stature fool you. This dude can play, and he can also pack a big wallop. I doubt he'll take Boston though if he's in there, more likely Walls who is 6'4" will be on him. Bailey says he's 100% and he was held out the last two games purely for precaution. Ferguson's been solid at safety but Lynch is the guy I'd throw at. He still hits a ton but has lost a step in coverage.

OK...Keith Traylor...I'm amazed to see Keith is up to 337 pounds? Is that true? This guy started with us a 260 lb LB a LONG time ago. One thing you need to realize, is that big, heavy, and especially OLD D-line guys are not a good antidote for this this type of running game. Denver's O-line forces the opposing D-line to move laterally on every running play instead of straight ahead. Traylor is not the guy I'd want in the middle for this job. He's big, but slow and easy to cut for our quick and mobile guys up front. On a unit that fell all the way from 5th to 31st against the run from '03 to '04 it's not a good thing to have oldsters like Traylor and the ancient Junior Seau still starting. I look for Denver to run at will against this unit unless sloppy field conditions make footing a factor. In last years game the Broncos rolled up 196 yards on the ground to 70 for the Fish and dominated them in time of possession outgaining the Fish 415 to 215 in total offense. Miami had a woefull 3.5 yard per play but kept it close on the strength of winning the turnover battle 3-1. Traylor, Junior and ZT are all a year older now. That can't be a good thing.

Yea...everyone's gonne get in their shots on Jake, and deservedly so. But perhaps the most notable thing about our preseason was the plays Jake DIDN'T make. Zero interceptions. He seems to be finally picking up the right habits in our offense. The best play I saw this preseason was Jake rolling out on our 6 yard line, and you could see a WR come open 10 yards downfield...not wide open though...just a step. It looked possible to hit him from the end zone view, but Jake pulled it down and took the 2 yard loss instead of risking the pick. We'll see if he's learned the lessons well or not now that it's the real thing. Blitzing may work, but remember that Jake is significantly better outside the pocket than he is in it. That strategy could backfire.

Final thoughts...a lot of people are looking at the close game last year in Denver as an indicator, but that's usually iffy to compare year to year results. The game was closer than expected because of the turnovers we had but Denver has also shown a tendency to wear down in the second half of the year. We went 7-3 in the first 10 games last year and 3-3 down the stretch. This has been an ongoing problem and there are some reasons for it but the main thing I see here is that the Miami game last year was played in week 14. Don't expect a repeat performance in the opening game.

Special teams were our albatross last year, and the punting game should be much better with Todd Saurbrun here now. KO and punt coverage units concern me however. If the Fish can break a big play or two there they could hang in there and make it closer than I expect.

Finally, Bronco fans have certainly seen much more of Gus than you guys have, and when I say we don't fear this guy...that's an understatement. Gus is basically a statue in the pocket, and as a journeyman career backup, he's the easiest assignment QB-wise we face this year, with the possible exception of Patrick Ramsey in Washington. With a rookie runner in his first game, a rookie head coach, a defense that ranked at the bottom of the league last year in stopping the run and Gus at QB, I'll be dissapointed if we don't beat the Fish by 20. Prediction: Denver 34 Miami 10

A couple of points to counter your counter. :D Our Defense fell off so much last year against the run due to injuries. Tim Bowens and Larry Chester were lost for the year. Junior Seau was lost for the year. Like it or not, those three were crucial to stopping the run, especially Bowens. He sucked up blockers and allowed Thomas to roam free and make tackles at or behind the line of scrimmage. Last year, we had Zgonina, Dario Romero and other smallish DTs that are usually used to rush on passing downs, forcing Thomas to take on guards and tackles down the field. Not good.

Traylor, while slower and older, is huge and will command at least two blockers. If you watch any of our preseason games, whenever the opposing team put one blocker on him, he usually bull rushed right passed him. He broke up many plays in the backfield and even had a sack. Not bad for a 340 linebacker.

You feel that the heat won't be any worse than in Arizona? :confused: I sure hope the team feels the same way. Remember, it isn't the heat that kills you, its the humidity. It is the reason Miami has such a stellar record at home in September and October. Teams wear down. They don't get enough fluids and cramps, dehydration and other ailments start affecting them. If you think this si going to be Arizona, well, you got another thing coming.

Ok, so three rookies won't be in the defensive backfield at once, only two? Fine by me. Regardless of what you say about Darrent, he is still a rookie ( isn't that the excuse you used for Ronnie Brown? who was drafted higher at that?) and a short rookie at that. I would love to see Chambers or the taller Booker be paired up with him. Chambers can jump with anyone not named Randy Moss and booker is a big target. Also, I would look for Boston, Gilmore and Welker to be on Bailey to test out the hammy. Those are our fastes guys and Welker can cut and shift better than most in the league which could provide problems for Champ.

Overall, I like you analysis, but it is flawed. You are throwing out numbers from two years ago and last year when the team was completely different. New coaches, new offensive and defensive schemes, new players, just aout new everything. You kind of have to throw those stats from last year away since this team looks nothing like that team. The Broncos on the other hand, look very similar to last year. Same schemes, same QB, same coach virtually the same offensive players across the board. I am not saying that is a bad thing, but it gives Miami and us fans a little more insight on what to look for.

With Miami, you just don't know yet. It could be chariot or it could be a pumpkin.

 

[JBroncos]

can't wait, this should be a good game. thank god the NFL season is here...:D

P.S. I actually can't wait to watch the Patriots play tonight, as much as that huts to say, Football is back baby!!!! Whoooooooooo I hope Moss has a huge day against them. 0-1 would be great for the Pats.

 

[QB2RonnieTD23]

My Keys to the game:
DONT LET FREROTTE THROW!