Slim Reaper comes in at 6’ and 166 pounds.

[Gatorboy999120]

so we are just making up stuff now 145? I will bet you money he doesn't play under 165 in the NFL.

I am obviously JOKING that he was 145lbs. I think?

But hey..bigger dudes get hurt easier/more..why gain mass?!!?!?!?!!

Everyone should lose a ton of weight to prevent injury..yes!!!

Said no one ever!!!

 

[gerblack]

I am obviously JOKING that he was 145lbs. I think?

But hey..bigger dudes get hurt easier/more..why gain mass?!!?!?!?!!

Everyone should lose a ton of weight to prevent injury..yes!!!

Said no one ever!!!

I don't know if you read the post or study but they stopped at 170 and the injuries started to tick back up so for discussion sake 170ish is about the line with 190 being the best weight for injury.

 

[GhostArmOfMarino]

The human body is unpredictable by nature. Barry sanders would run and cut and never blew out a knee. One day teddy Bridgewater dropped back to pass and almost lost his leg.

Size does not equate to strength or injury prevention. If it did and human being who was not a professional athlete would be dead. This is why smith's weight doesn't cause me to waver as him being first option. He's got an equal chance of getting hurt next to everybody else and his height and weight make no difference in that.

Let me add another thing to this great post.

Most injuries aren't from getting hit too hard. Not serious ones anyway.

They tend to come from being hit in the leg at an awkward angle or something of that sort.

When a guy gets hit really hard you just end up with the wind knocked out of you if its a normal hit.

 

[Gatorboy999120]

I don't know if you read the post or study but they stopped at 170 and the injuries started to tick back up so for discussion sake 170ish is about the line with 190 being the best weight for injury.

oh..so 166lbs is bad? Ouch.

 

[BigNastyFish]

...so weird the NFL has had it all wrong all these years!

What ya need is a bunch of bony players out there "rattling" each other and of course there would never be an injury some super glue couldn't fix lickety-split!

And imagine the names of the teams!

The Miami Fibulas

The Tampa Bay Vertebres

The San Francisco Femurs

The Baltimore Boners

 

[Digital]

I tend to be heavily driven by data and analytics. Even back when I was an athlete. My teammates would make fun of me and call me a robot. And the spreadsheets I'd make, for example ones based on the results of each play type we'd run, didn't help.

I played basketball and was our team's shooter. I would get yelled at by my HS coach (and even benched once) for taking "bad three's" as opposed to stepping up into a more open 2.

I had to literally give a presentation explaining that he was asking me to hit 50% of those 2 pointers in order to get equal value from me hitting 33% of those slightly harder shots. Afterwards he let me play my way. This was back in 2002, and I didn't know at the time I was basically explaining what is now know as an advanced stat called Effective FG% to him. Almost 20 years later ~40% of shots in the NBA are from 3 bc of this logic.

I've always loved stats, math, and analytics and believe they absolutely should be incorporated into sports. But the main key to doing this is to understand the variables you aren't accounting for and acknowledge the ones you can't.

All of the factors you mentioned are valid. Also, maybe smaller players tend to be in better shape. We can always try to dig deeper. The study I posted is limited and should only be taken for exactly what it is. I believe analytics get a bad rap bc many that use them don't appreciate the nuances or understand the limitations. Like if somone read what I linked to and thought it's implying it's a good idea to build a team of undersized players, they're doing it wrong.

I'm very interested in analytics too. My biggest issues are:

A. People tend to like what they like and ignore the data, OR
B. People get so focused on the analytics that they misunderstand how the analytics fit into the big picture.

So, for me when analyzing an NFL prospect the biggest element is the film. I use statistics like combine numbers to verify what I saw on film. So I was a huge Mike Gesicki fan because on tape I saw a rare athlete in a huge frame who made tremendous strides. He went from a skinny volleyball player who just barely learned how to play WR to being converted to a bulkier TE in college. He went from being a kid who had bad hands to becoming THE BEST contested catcher in his draft class and vice-grip hands. When the Combine came around and revealed he was 6'6, 245 lbs., with long arms and a 41.5" vertical ... it was not a surprise. It merely confirmed my view of his physique and athleticism. The film already explained how he was exceptional at high-pointing the ball. The Combine measured bench press, but not grip and rip strength to snatch and hold the ball, so that element wasn't quantified, but was obvious on tape. While his route running was so so, it had improved significantly and he showed to be continuing to improve. His blocking was poor and his blocking effort was poor, but his coaches simply didn't stress it with him, so that was an open evaluation.

When the higher level analytics compared him at his position vs. other prospects and he showed up in the very top tier of length etc., it was no surprise. But, despite his fast forty time of 4.56, it was clear that he was a long strider, and despite his 41.5" vertical, he wasn't bursty out of his cuts. The stats didn't really tell that story, but the film did. Ideal weapon for seam routes, red zone throws, 3rd down throws, and check downs. That profiles fantastically to a Move TE. I was a huge fan, advocated for drafting Minkah Fitzpatrick and Mike Gesicki, and when we drafted them 1, 2, I was ecstatic. Unfortunately, despite me advocating to use Minkah in the FS role exclusively even before we drafted him ... we foolishly didn't, he was disgrunteld, traded, and became an instant-All-Pro at Pittsburgh as they played him exclusively as a FS. I explained how Mike Gesicki would need time to transition as all TE's do ... and he has. I'm ecstatic to see him growing into the potential his analytics showed.

But, IMHO, most people try to treat football like baseball ...but we don't really keep track of the right statistics to quantify it the way it is so well quantified in baseball. Our RB's are so dependent upon their OL, the defense presented, and of course down and distance. Averaging 5 yards per carry looks great unless he's only used on 3rd and long. The RB able to average 3 yards per carry who is only used on 3rd and 1 is the better football player, but we cannot capture all that data into one stat, so it tends to be misleading in football. In baseball the On Base Percentage is a great metric, like the Slugging Percentage or Earned Runs Average. We simply do not have those equivalent metrics in the NFL. So when people compare QB's ... there's just less definitive data, and we need to over-rely on things like YPA. When we look at pass rushers, we over-rely on Sacks and it's even hard to compare Pressures because some teams use stunts and blitzes more than others or play coverage and leave their pass rushers to win 1v2 a lot. Whereas in baseball, essentially, every batter is isolated depending very little on any teammates, and every defense is essentially the same. There are a lot less dynamic variables to throw off the game statistics.

In football, we tend to rely more on athletic statistics of the player (40 time, vertical leap, height, wingspan, weight) than their actual play, so there is much more of a disconnect when evaluating players. I'm sure you are just as excited as I am about where analytics is headed and can't wait for the analytics world to start reaching deeper into providing meaningful data.

Of course, we're always at the mercy of the human element, because no matter how much data analytics provides, it's still the individual who needs to weight what is important and prioritize what they want. :)

 

[Kamelion4291]

...so weird the NFL has had it all wrong all these years!

What ya need is a bunch of bony players out there "rattling" each other and of course there would never be an injury some super glue couldn't fix lickety-split!

And imagine the names of the teams!

The Miami Fibulas

The Tampa Bay Vertebres

The San Francisco Femurs

The Baltimore Boners

Do you come to the forum to be obtuse on purpose or is that just your natural state?

I'm sure you already know that the study people are referencing is about weight in regards to injury only, not overall effectiveness so I guess that leads me to the former conclusion.

 

[A1.]

I think there’s 100% an emphasis on “separation” by fans this year. Our WR corps sucked last year but so did many of the concepts between the 20s.

Now a lot of the fan base is hell bent on finding whichever WR separates best and doesn’t care about much else. It’s too magnified. There’s some exceptional WRs in this class that are getting over looked bc they don’t separate off the line as well as smitty. Missing on a lot of talent and value by attaching themselves to smitty w/ no care of his weight, age or system he came from

 

[gerblack]

oh..so 166lbs is bad? Ouch.

166 is right there with 210-230. so no

 

[BigNastyFish]

Do you come to the forum to be obtuse on purpose or is that just your natural state?

I'm sure you already know that the study people are referencing is about weight in regards to injury only, not overall effectiveness so I guess that leads me to the former conclusion.

Mommy recommends a warm bath followed by a nice enema!

Feel better!

 

[gerblack]

I think there’s 100% an emphasis on “separation” by fans this year. Our WR corps sucked last year but so did many of the concepts between the 20s.

Now a lot of the fan base is hell bent on finding whichever WR separates best and doesn’t care about much else. It’s too magnified. There’s some exceptional WRs in this class that are getting over looked bc they don’t separate off the line as well as smitty. Missing on a lot of talent and value by attaching themselves to smitty w/ no care of his weight, age or system he came from

To be fair two of the best indicators of WR coming out of college have been separation and hands. That doesn't mean you don't take other stuff into consideration but those two things have been the best at predicting if a WR can make the next level.

 

[Nappy Roots]

JA'MARR CHASEWR, COLLEGE PLAYER
https://www.nbcsports.com/edge/football/nfl/player/63722/jamarr-chase

LSU's Ja'Marr Chase is the first unanimous top wide receiver prospect in Bob McGinn's poll of draft evaluators since Calvin Johnson in 2007.​

Kyle Pitts, to no one's surprise, was the unanimous top tight end prospect in McGinn's polling of longtime NFL Draft evaluators. No one since Megatron -- when he was coming out of Georgia Tech -- has been the unanimous No. 1 wideout, and only one receiver -- Michael Crabtree -- has come within one vote of being unanimous. “Chase is one of the best wide receivers in the last 10 years,” a longtime NFL scout told McGinn, who's written an NFL Draft series for 37 years. “He’s as strong as one of those big tight ends. He just goes and takes the ball away. He can take an underneath ball and go 80 yards. He can just run right by you and catch it 60 yards downfield. He’s built like a fullback almost, but can run like a wide receiver. He’s as good as it gets.” One longtime scout described Chase as a “modern-day Sterling Sharpe." Evaluators who participated in the poll portrayed Chase -- who scored a whopping 20 touchdowns as a sophomore in 2019 -- as a can't-miss prospect. NBC Sports Edge's John Daigle projects Chase to the Bengals with the fifth pick in the draft.

Funny that Crabtree was brought up. He reminds me so much of Crabtree coming out.

I think Chase is better and will be better. But his floor is Crabtree for me.

 

[Feverdream]

Funny that Crabtree was brought up. He reminds me so much of Crabtree coming out.

I think Chase is better and will be better. But his floor is Crabtree for me.

WRs are so prone to busts...
Obviously Calvin was great... and Crabtree was not great...
Same evaluators.

It's one reason I am so leery of a WR at 6.

 

[Nappy Roots]

WRs are so prone to busts...
Obviously Calvin was great... and Crabtree was not great...
Same evaluators.

It's one reason I am so leery of a WR at 6.

Definitely agree. It’s a position that at the college level, WRs can dominate the competition physically, and by physically I mean could be speed, strength, quickness, or size, etc. They also don’t need to be as tuned into the playbook and understanding of defenses as much.

For the most part in the NFL, you have to be the complete package to thrive.

 

[Nappy Roots]

Definitely agree. It’s a position that at the college level, WRs can dominate the competition physically, and by physically I mean could be speed, strength, quickness, or size, etc. They also don’t need to be as tuned into the playbook and understanding of defenses as much.

For the most part in the NFL, you have to be the complete package to thrive.

Also why I have Smith as my top rated WR. He has it all. 166 pounds is a question mark, regardless what anyone here tries to say. It has to make you hesitant. But for me, I still think he’s the total package of skill, smarts, technique and work ethic. I’m willing to roll the dice on his weight personally.