Discussion in 'NFL Draft Forum' started by TedSlimmJr, May 4, 2017.
I appreciate all four quarterbacks and I do put Baker Mayfield in their ranks.
What do you have on Baker
I would say in my history it can't exactly come as a shock if I have an affinity for Baker Mayfield. My two guys last year were Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson. I gave Mahomes the slight edge on long term potential.
I need a guy who is faster than the game because the game is faster than the guy when they bump to the next level. Baker Mayfield is faster than the game.
You can't just come to the NFL anymore and conquer it from a mental and technical standpoint. It's too much. You need to be able to handle the rush and make plays on your own. You can't keep waiting until someone builds an offense for you and gets it all perfect so you can take off running. It's nice when it happens that way but it's probably not going to happen that way.
When I watch Baker Mayfield play, I think he's got a handle on where everyone is, where they're supposed to be, and he knows where to look when he gets into trouble. He also knows how to manipulate the defense and defenders to get what he wants. He thinks in real time.
The thing he adds to that is really consistent throwing and execution. That's the extra. I think when you're able to show that you can consistently execute in a way your skill players can count on, and then you also have that play making ability, it's enough to go toe to toe with NFL defenses. To be able to complete 76 percent of your passes and have the execution from a timing, ball placement standpoint achieve uniformity, especially in quick flick, bang-bang situations, and yet so clearly be a gun slinging play-maker type...that's attractive. His feet are wonderful. Not sure there's anyone in the class with feet that quick and that active. But then, there's not a QB in the class actually playing better than Baker right now.
He's going to have to be taught things. I understand that. But I also understand that he's not going to have to be taught things that others will never have. I think he's got a chance to be somewhere between a Drew Brees and a Russell Wilson.
I'm not going to ding a guy on height anymore based on poor or misunderstood statistical methodology. I'm only going to do it if I see the size translate into poor vision, poor habits, or poor durability. And I don't see an arm strength case to be made. In fact I like the way he darts the football around at distance.
I pointed out how lucky Rosen was getting in terms of interceptions while other quarterbacks weren't. I tried to illustrate that he was 4 inches from having the games Josh Allen was getting scolded for having.
As usual, the breaks have caught up with him. It all evens out in the end. This weekend was Rosen and Luke Falk's turn.
Although Falk isn't anywhere near the category Rosen, Darnold, and Allen are in. Which is all together a different discussion.
Watching Tanner Lee more, minus the turnovers, he’s got a real nice throwing motion and quick release when he passes. It’s reminiscent of Marino imo. This is the kid I’d like the Phins to draft whether it be next year or the year after. I think he’s going to be pretty dang good.
What do you guys think of Will Grier out of W. Virginia? I’m a Florida Gators fan and was pissed they dumped him. He played really well when he was on the Gators until his injury, and now he’s playing really well @ W. Virginia.
Grier strikes me as a guy that's in bad need of a significant amount of refinement. He needs to develop more consistency, as cliche as that sounds. He reminds me a bit of Jay Cutler that way.
Word on the street is Tanner Lee and Clayton Thorson are leaning toward coming out early.
I agree, but he definitely doesn't have Cutler's arm. I think he's a clever QB, but he'd do well to return and improve the consistency of his footwork and throwing mechanics. I know the lesser QB's smell blood in the water with Darnold's struggles (not to mention the possibility that he'll return to USC in 2018), but they should really focus on what's best for their development - speaking of Lee and Thorson, too.
I think you can make a strong case for each of the UC QB's to return to school for 2018, but the lower-ranked guys, especially, should think hars about where they are in their development.
Despite his struggles, Darnold is the only UC QB I like in the 1st - if he declares.
I really like Tanner Lee. He’d be a good pick up in the middle rounds.
Yeah, few have Cutler's arm. Or at least the arm Cutler had for most of his career (not sure it's the same right now).
I'm watching this UCLA/USC game. Rosen is going to be special. Maybe Sashi Brown goes for the threepeat and trades away the picks used for Wentz, Watson, and Rosen in three straight years. He has the treading "picks and money" water vibe that Ireland collected 6 salaries on.
rotoworld - Wyoming redshirt junior QB Josh Allen was the first player announced for Wyoming's senior day introductions.
Indication he's going pro? That's what they think
I think all year long we could have safely assumed Josh Allen would come out early. He had a very public "Should I or shouldn't I?" episode LAST draft season, and ended up announcing that he's decided to return to school. When you do all that, you usually don't turn around and stay in school a second time.
The surprise is that Clayton Thorson and Tanner Lee are reportedly leaning toward coming out.
Josh Rosen and Sam Darnold are so good.
I would mortgage the farm to get one.
Holding out hope for Josh Allen to fall.
Unless Josh Allen falls to the 3rd round (which is possible) I wouldn't hold out too much hope for him in Miami.
I don’t see Josh Allen dropping that far, apparently the Jets are really high on the guy. I’m hoping the Dolphins are high on him as well. I don’t want to see him in a Jets or Bills uniform.
For quarterbacks it tends to be very all or nothing. Either you're well regarded enough a personnel department wants to stake its reputation on you, or you can fall a bit. I'm not saying Josh WILL fall into the 3rd but you certainly have to say that's a plausible scenario on that basis.
I believe every team in the league will regret passing on Allen. Much like they regret passing on Aaron Rodgers.
Someone will offer a king's ransom to get one of these guys. I wouldn't bet against Elway making a play for one of them.
Drew Lock arm = Howitzer
Always throws a beautiful ball. Very catchable.
Beginning the season I agreed with Ted that Lamar Jackson should be considered an "athlete" by NFL teams, but now that the regular season has played out, I think he's a QB on Sundays. There's something there to be had with him. I think it boils down to whether or not his mind can handle an NFL playbook. He still needs some work and I wouldn't take him in the 1st, but I'd take him in the 2nd in a heart beat and work with him. He works the middle of the field so well but still needs some work on his deep stuff. He's got touch and he's become accurate enough, I think, that he can play QB at the NFL level.
I'm somewhere between you and Slimm on Jackson. I have him in the 3rd - with Mike Vick and Tyrod Taylor as his most obvious comps. You can win with that, particularly on a rookie contract, but the supporting cast has to be right. You want a good D and running game, so you're not asking him to make too many plays with his arm, because his inconsistent accuracy will translate to inconsistent offense. You can live with that if he's making big plays (which he can with his legs and arm), but if you're asking him to throw 30-40 times a game, you're going to hit some rough patches. He's not a QB who will make a bad team look good - like Deshaun Watson or Andrew Luck.
Unfortunately, for his long-term prospects, a team will likely fall in love with him in the top 10 (where bad teams pick). Best fits: Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Jacksonville, Minnesota. Baltimore is the most realistic option. Ozzie could do what he did with Flacco when he was on his rookie contract.
Two things concern me about Lamar Jackson and his translation to the next level. First is accuracy, second is I don't think his frame can withstand the punishment at the next level at QB.
At QB you're constantly going to be hit by bigger guys than you would be at WR, and most of them in a more defenseless position. Same worries I had about Robert Griffin.
People need to realize there are no Syracuses or N. Carolinas or Purdues in the NFL. Go back and evaluate the games against LSU and Clemson, etc. That's my concern.
Although I agree with Lou here, if you're committed to drafting this kid as a QB only and are hellbent on it, I'd be more comfortable with spending a 2nd round pick.
But anybody wanting to draft this kid top 5 or 10 can have him all day long as far as I'm concerned. I'll live with whatever the results end up being for better or worse.
Just based upon how highly valued QBs are in the draft. I don't think there's anyway Jackson doesn't go in the first round. I wouldn't put it past the Browns to take him #1 overall.
I ended up with Robert Griffin rated a 2nd rounder and I see no reason not to end up with Lamar Jackson in the 2nd round as well.
He's not as accurate as Griffin, especially at deeper NFL distances. But I think he actually sees and reads the field from inside the pocket better than Griffin did at Baylor, throwing with the anticipation of windows opening up. Without question there are more NFL concepts in Jackson's Louisville play BOOK than Griffin's Baylor play SHEET.
With Jackson, I actually like his work from inside the pocket better than a lot of his work out of the pocket. With Griffin, it was the other way around. He never seemed comfortable until he got out of the pocket. I felt like RG3 needed to be out of the tackle box just to see things more clearly. I don't get that feeling as much with Lamar Jackson. And I think Jackson is better than RG3 was in terms of feeling the rush from inside the pocket. I'm not saying he's a standout in this regard, but it's better than RG3 was.
They both have similar frames and take way too much contact. This was a primary concern I expressed about RG3 with consistency. He needed to play outside the pocket but he didn't have the natural wherewithal or even the desire to avoid bad contact, and his frame wasn't going to hold up to the punishment he'd get outside the pocket. He had already blown out a knee in college, and every game I would see him take these vicious shots that you don't think he can get up from. He did get up, every time, with the exception of that year he blew out his knee, but you just knew if he kept doing that in the NFL where everyone are bigger and faster, one day he wouldn't. This is the trap Lamar Jackson can't fall into, because he has a WR-like frame. I already see on film he takes too much contact.
But then you have to go back to it...that accuracy. Griffin's accuracy was just better, and that can mean a lot at the next level.
To me that all works out to around a 2nd round pick.
I really like Jared Stidham much better game against Alabama then against Clemson. Maybe he's improving. Probably will end up back at Auburn for another year though
It's interesting that Tanner Lee may be coming out. I imagine the temptation is all the stronger now that the coach has been fired.
Josh Allen is strongly rumored to be out and the Wyoming coach recently iterated that point.
I think most of us feel it's likely Lamar Jackson comes out.
Josh Rosen is definitely out.
The rumor that surprises me is that Clayton Thorson of Northwestern might be out. He's a good QB. Good pro prospect. But I still would've thought he'd stay.
If accuracy is an issue with Jackson, then I'm out, adios Lamar.
Miami needs a QB that can throw a receiver open in stride and can still survive an NFL hit.
No more projects, don's waste the pick, Dolphins need players than can make a 53 on talent.
Accuracy is a Huge issue for him. I don't see that changing either. He may get better but never above 65% in my view
Very well said, CK. I also had a 2nd on RG3, but if I had it to do over, I'd have him in the 3rd, because of the implications of his playing style and frame. You really have to protect a QB like that, and even if you do, the risk of injury is still high.
I agree that Jackson sees the field and operates from the pocket better than RG3 - and that his accuracy is worse. Ultimately, I like Jackson more than I'd like RG3 coming out today, because Jackson's character and football mind are more appealing.
I'm very concerned that a bad team will draft him, use Jackson's legs way too much, have inflated (unsustainable) success early, only to see him hurt. That seems like the most likely outcome. I'd like to see a team use Jackson somewhere between the usage of RG3 and early Vick and Tyrod Taylor (Bills don't use his legs enough imo) - but closer to Taylor.
I wanna see Tanner Lee in a Miami Dolphins uniform. Or if Drew Lock declares he’s another, but both Lock and Lee might be returning for their senior year.
The last I heard of Tanner Lee was that he planned to come out. That's not set in stone obviously. There's got to be considerable enthusiasm about Scott Frost taking over so perhaps Lee will stay on that basis.
I'm curious if Chase Litton comes out. He's really matured a lot since I started watching his high school tape. And he's put on weight too. Still got a golden gun.
* Josh Allen has made several Marino-type throws today. Especially the first touchdown pass, which reminded me of the throw Marino made at the Jets early in his rookie season. That was the throw that Shula said made his jaw drop in disbelief.
I wish Wyoming had drawn a more difficult bowl opponent. This reminds me of Jared Goff picking on the Air Force pass defense in that bowl a few years ago. I liked Goff but with that Sonny Dykes hyper sweep offense it was difficult to get a feel for everything. BTW, I think Goff now really benefits from McVay being so sharp and using lots of flowing concepts that open up the field and basically more sophisticated and sensible versions of the things Dykes tried to do. Plus Gurley obviously doesn't hurt.
Allen still reminds me of a bigger Jake Plummer but with a much stronger arm. He moves around like Plummer. Very smooth. And like Plummer something is missing. A friend of mine in Las Vegas always emphasized that for as smart and accurate as Plummer was proposed to be, his completion percentage lingered in the mid 50s. Allen's has been almost identical. I don't want to fully knock him for it because Wyoming's personnel is crap. Really crap. They are always overmatched in the trenches and this season their most dependable skill position guys from last season were gone.
Drive through the wastelands of Wyoming and you'll understand why their personnel is crap. I'll never forget the year they played Oklahoma in a bowl game and the spread was tiny. Sooners underachieved that season and got stuck in a minor bowl. Too bad I was too young to wager at that point. Massacre.
The reason I wanted to see Allen against a better opponent is his tendency to make the silly mistake. Like the game ending interception against BYU in last year's bowl. Even today he took a needless sack to take Wyoming out of field goal range. This is an extremely talented player but there will be frustrations. I don't know why Sons of Shula was banned but I thought he made some good points earlier in this thread, about Allen perhaps not mentally tough enough. ckparrothead had interesting observations about poor performances in front of more eyes. Allen has done fine in Mountain West step up games, like the home upsets of Boise State and San Diego State last season.
Too talented not to go very, very high...maybe first. These throws today will be all over that Path to the Draft programming.
* As a USC alum obviously I hope Darnold stays. It's reached the point not many people on the USC forums are even worried about it. There were some insider indications on those forums beginning in midseason. I was surprised at how persistent they were.
Darnold is a gamer. More than any of these guys. Yeah, the long delivery will cause occasional problems but everything else is special enough you just forget about it
* Rosen reminds me of Matt Ryan but not as durable. Ryan is a big guy, despite not the strongest arm. Rosen has instincts to run and takes hits as a result. I don't think his frame is as sturdy as Ryan. But not an injury waiting to happen like Robert Griffin. Besides, Griffin was a jerk. That is still the most baffling single departure in nearly 50 years of following the draft...the way Robert Griffin's personality was portrayed leading up to that draft -- and shortly thereafter -- compared to how it was properly defined on so many of the major college message boards beforehand. I detected it but I had plenty of company.
In the NFL, Rosen will find that his arm isn't strong enough to avoid the interceptions that he narrowly avoids in college so often, as Slimm pointed out.
* I don't know about Baker Mayfield. That Big 12 pass defense is so incredibly inept at nobody allowing less than 7.1 YPA that I have to apply some doubt, but mostly to the second tier types like the Oklahoma State kid. Mayfield did fare well at Ohio State, albeit with help from Barrett.
I wish Oklahoma had drawn Alabama first, and an Alabama with the healthy defense like September. That would have been fun. I would not have wagered lightly. Oklahoma has a 7.5 YPA pass defense, which would be unprecedented as national champ. But the matchup against Georgia is a bit of a conflict because Oklahoma was rated higher than Georgia in preseason. When pass defense and preseason ratings point to the same team the outcome cooperates.
Tanner Lee is declaring for the draft. He’s the guy I want the Dolphins to pick up in the later rounds.
NBC Sports - CollegeFootballTalk: QB Tanner Lee leaving Nebraska early for NFL draft http://collegefootballtalk.nbcsport...ner-lee-leaving-nebraska-early-for-nfl-draft/
It's possible we see 4-5 QBs in top 10 which bodes well for Miami. Hopefully with some luck we are slotted at #10 pick.
Leaves us with Minaj, Ward, Brad Chubb, L Smith, Derwin James or Barkley.
Not sure why Darnold isn't coached to keep two hands on the football in the pocket, but that's all it boils down to in terms of his fumbling issues.
If he was to declare for the draft and start working with somebody like George Whitfield, he'd be coached and drilled constantly on fundamentals. Mostly maintaining the triangle as you keep two hands on the football.
He'd be extremely fundamentally sound for his pro day after working with Whitfield for a few months.
I've said it from the beginning, but there's no doubt in my mind Darnold is going to be an elite quarterback at the next level.
How he was able to throw for 356 yards against Ohio St. with his receivers fumbling the ball all over the place and an NFL defensive line living in the backfield every single snap was incredible.
I know it’s still early in his career, but I’d like to read what you draft gurus think about Jake Fromm from Georgia?
Wish he would've stuck with his commitment to Alabama instead of following Kirby to Georgia.
Too early to break him down as a prospect for the next level.