So... we kept Grier. Let's take a second look. | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

So... we kept Grier. Let's take a second look.

Feverdream

Feverdream

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It has always seemed like a lot of the Grier criticism came down to a couple of things. Many Finheavenites were either a) Upset because he didn't draft specific players/positions that they, personally, wanted or b) They wanted the entire rookie squad to play like seasoned veterans right out of the box. So I decided to take another look at the previous three draft classes.

2019
Round 1 (13): DI Christian Wilkins, Clemson (Just had an excellent season. Top 4 in tackles. Increasing pass rush presence)
Round 3 (78): G Michael Deiter, Wisconsin (Mediocre starting Center)
Round 5 (151): LB Andrew Van Ginkel, Wisconsin (a flat steal)
Round 6 (202): OT Isaiah Prince, Ohio State (currently with the Bengals, and starting)
Round 7 (233): FB Chandler Cox, Auburn (out of the NFL)
Round 7 (234): RB Myles Gaskin, Washington (sometime starter, better 3rd down back)
UDFAs: Nik Needham, Patrick Laird, Jonathan Ledbetter, Chris Myarick, and Preston Williams (Needham starting nickel back, the others have played some)

In retrospect, this was not a bad draft at all. Wilkins has become one of the best DTs in the league, Dieter is a league average sort of player as a third rounder, and Van Ginkle and Needham have wildly outplayed their draft positions).

2020
  • Round 1, Pick No. 5: Tua Tagavailoa, QB, Alabama (Sure, I would have taken Herbert, but Tua hasn't been awful. This isn't a Haskins pick)
  • Round 1, Pick No. 18: Austin Jackson, OT, USC (Beginning to look like a questionable pick, although he did play better in '20 than '21)
  • Round 1, Pick No. 30: Noah Igbinoghene, CB, Auburn (not looking good)
  • Round 2, Pick No. 39: Robert Hunt, G, Louisiana-Lafayette (extremely solid pick)
  • Round 2, Pick No. 56: Raekwon Davis, DT, Alabama (was a star in '20, took a step back this year. Still looks solid)
  • Round 3, Pick No. 70: Brandon Jones, S, Texas (third safety so far, probably starts next year)
  • Round 4, Pick No. 111: Solomon Kindley, G, Georgia (not looking good)
  • Round 5, Pick No. 154: Jason Strowbridge, DE, North Carolina (currently a free agent)
  • Round 5, Pick No. 164: Curtis Weaver, OLB, Boise State (practice squad Browns)
  • Round 6, Pick No. 185: Blake Ferguson, LS, LSU (starting on special teams. Solid)
  • Round 7, Pick No. 246: Malcolm Perry, WR, Navy (practice squad Patriots)
  • UDFAs: Not much. Benito Jones and Kirk Merritt are still around, but neither looks like a future player.
This draft will always be defined by Tua. If he succeeds next year, this is a decent draft, despite the Igbinoghene reach. Jackson had a decent season, followed by a bad one, and it's unknown what a better Offensive Line coach will be able to get out of him. Hunt has been really good, and Jones and Davis have been solid. Some people bitched because of the Ferguson pick, but he's still with us and contributing-- unlike Strowbridge, Weaver, and Perry. This draft was one of those, hit, then miss drafts, but in the long run... it's ALL about the decision to draft Tua over Herbert.

2021

  • 6th Overall Selection (R1-P6): Jaylen Waddle, WR, Alabama
  • 18th Overall Selection (R1-P18): Jaelan Phillips, EDGE, Miami
  • 36th Overall Selection (R2-P4, from Houston): Jevon Holland, S, Oregon
  • 42nd Overall Selection (R2-P10, from N.Y. Giants): Liam Eichenberg, OT, Notre Dame
  • 81st Overall Selection (R3-P18): Hunter Long, TE, Boston College
  • 231st Overall Selection (R7-P3, from Houston): Larnel Coleman, OT, Massachusetts
  • 244th Overall Selection (R7-P16, from Washington): Gerrid Doaks, RB, Cincinnati
Whew... this one was a home run, just one of the best drafts that we've EVER had! The top three all look like future Pro Bowl players. Eichenberg was bounced all over the place and survived despite playing the only position that no draft tout thought he was suited for (LT). Next year, expect him to start on the right side, next to Hunt. The Long pick looks like a miss, but only because like Iggy in 2019, we didn't really need him. He may end up being a player, but we have not seen anything yet. Coleman went to IR after a decent camp and may replace Davis at swing tackle next year. Doaks must not have shown much... as bad as our rushing attack was, we never once thought about using him.

So... you and I may disagree over this or that player, but I really don't see how anyone can consider these three draft classes as an abject failure. Many of our best players came directly from Chris Grier's drafts. When you consider the rest of what he's done-- getting us so far under the cap and generally getting decent returns on his trades.... I just don't see where all of the anti-Grier sentiment comes from. Even the Free Agent signings have proven reasonably safe... only the Byron Jones signing was for longer than two years and the Ogbah signing has been a godsend. Stealing Seiler from the Ravens and then signing him to a below market contract was a gift. Butler, Riley... several others have provided valuable downs as back up players.

Why have we underwhelmed? The Offensive Line. ...and it may be argued that the problem here is that our coaching was really poor-- not really his fault.
 
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superphin said:
Why only the previous 3 though? He's been in charge of the draft since 2016 and it's easier to judge a draft as time passes.
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Well, you could go back further I guess... 2016 gave us Tunsil, X, and Kenyan Drake, as well as Jakeem Grant.

2017 was worse, but Harris, Godchaux, McMillan, and Ford are all still in the NFL. Indeed, Charles Harris just had his best season (7.5 sacks)

2018 was excellent: Fitzpatrick, Gesicki, Baker, Sanders and Smythe
 
Let’s not forget he’s made some shrewd maneuvers in dumping cap space and orchestrating this rebuild and setting us up with the most cap space in the NFL with a decent roster to boot.

Additionally, he’s made very good trades along the way. I don’t love giving up a 1 to go get Waddle when we could have had Chase at 3, but I understand the logic.

I also don’t mind that he bet on us VS what SF might do this last year. He had to figure if SF has the balls to trot out a rookie QB well I’ll bet on my guys.

All in all I like what Grier has done. If he picked Herbert over Tua it would be a home run, but it is what it is.
 
Honestly it doesn’t seem like Grier has ever been “in charge” of the draft. It seems that he collaborates closely with the coach and get players the coach wants. I have to say, he’s made two tremendous trades in the Tunsil deal and getting 3 SF firsts for dropping down from 3 to 12.
 
Where I think he has flopped has been in free agency. Too much turnover and paying guys to not play for us, but that could also be blamed on coaching where a lot of players have proven to be talented, but not thrived in our system.
 
I don’t mind your analysis. It’s pretty clear that we’ve drafted some good players over the past few years.

The only issue I have is that we can’t look at his picks in a vacuum. You’d also need to include players we didn’t draft who were available when it was our turn to make a selection. That paints an entirely different picture.
 
ForksPhin said:
I don’t mind your analysis. It’s pretty clear that we’ve drafted some good players over the past few years.

The only issue I have is that we can’t look at his picks in a vacuum. You’d also need to include players we didn’t draft who were available when it was our turn to make a selection. That paints an entirely different picture.
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The problem with that approach is that you can always do that... with any GM or any draft.

Were all 26 of the GMs who passed on Dan Marino stupid? Or all 20 of the GMs who passed on Randy Moss?

This approach assumes that 'everybody knew'... and that just aint so. If you have a GM who hits on most of his picks, then you've got a good one.
 
People rip him because the OLine has sucked for most of the past decade.

Missing on Jackson and Kindley (so far) when that is our glaring weak spot gives his detractors lots of ammo.

I think he's a good GM, and widely respected around the league for his abilities.

If Ross fired him he would be another team's GM practically immediately.

(I think Brandon Jones started across from Holland for a lot of the season, and I think he is our second safety?)
 
Kev7 said:
Where I think he has flopped has been in free agency. Too much turnover and paying guys to not play for us, but that could also be blamed on coaching where a lot of players have proven to be talented, but not thrived in our system.
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I have argued that our approach to Free Agency was different than what most fans wanted to see. I think a lot of fans only look at FA from the perspective of "did we sign any all-stars?", rather than did we deliberately set out to sign stop gap players while we build mostly through the draft.

If you look at what Grier has done in this area, it seems clear to me that the goal was to sign only stop gap players. Guys who'd be here for a year or two at the most. I believe that only Jones was signed to be a permanent player. Most of our signings were two year contracts with easy outs after one year-- contracts designed to end before our draftees were ready to contend.

If you look at his work through that lens, he's done an admirable job.
 
circumstances said:
People rip him because the OLine has sucked for most of the past decade.

Missing on Jackson and Kindley (so far) when that is our glaring weak spot gives his detractors lots of ammo.

I think he's a good GM, and widely respected around the league for his abilities.

If Ross fired him he would be another team's GM practically immediately.

(I think Brandon Jones started across from Holland for a lot of the season, and I think he is our second safety?)
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I struggled with how to describe Jones... looking at his snap counts, he only played starter level snaps 4-5 times.

Miami Dolphins Snap Counts 2022

Get Miami Dolphins snap counts, including snap count percentages and weekly breakdowns with LINEUPS.
www.lineups.com www.lineups.com

Next year, I think he'll be the unquestioned starter as Rowe will be gone or demoted to 3rd guy.
 
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