Mello Yello
Club Member
Drew Brees
20 seasons ('01 thru '20)
5 seasons in San Diego (rookie season on the bench)
15 seasons in New Orleans
Brees' by Team:
> 85 rating (SD)
> 102 rating (NO)
Brees' in 10-yr increments:
> 92 rating
> 105 rating
Brees' in 5-yr increments:
> 85 rating
> 96 rating
> 102 rating
> 108 rating
Brees' Cmp% in 5-yr increments:
> 62%
> 67%
> 68%
> 72%
Let's look at a few of Brees' most significant years.
2009 - The Saints go 13-3 and are the #1 seed. They win the Super Bowl.
Brees:
Cmp% - 70.6
Att - 514
Yds - 4,388
TD - 34
INT - 11
Y/A - 8.5
109.6 rating
Saints Weaponry:
Strength of Roster:
2011 - The Saints go 13-3 and win a Wildcard game.
Brees:
Cmp% - 71.2
Att - 657
Yds - 5,476
TD - 46
INT - 14
Y/A - 8.3
110.6 rating
Saints Weaponry:
Strength of Roster:
2018 - The Saints go 13-3 and win a Wildcard game.
Brees:
Cmp% - 74.4
Att - 489
Yds - 3,992
TD - 32
INT - 5
Y/A - 8.2
115.7 rating
Saints Weaponry:
Strength of Roster:
Take-Aways:
> Brees' legacy is based on what he did in the 2nd decade of his career.
> Brees cmp% rose steadily thru his career and it drove his elite passer rating near the end.
> Brees Int% wasn't great early on (~2.5%) but it dropped in the 2nd decade (~1.5%) which also drove his elite passer rating near the end.
> Brees was an iron man who only missed 4 games in 15-years between '04 and '18. Wow!
> Brees' attempts varied by year. Sometimes he threw 650 balls for 5,400-yds. Sometimes he threw 550 for 4,400-yds.
> Brees' weapons didn't carry him. He threw to a lot of okay receivers, bet very few great ones.
> Brees always had OL talent in front of him. His OL routinely made Pro Bowls and All-Pro lists.
> Brees had RB talent and his best teams often featured it: Pierre Thomas, Reggie Bush, Mark Ingram, Alvin Kamara, etc.
> The Saints D was horrible and held Brees back between '11 and '20 ranking as low as 28, 31 and 32 towards the end.
How does Tua compare?
I think Tua's already started his career much faster than Brees did. Brees was totally replaceable in San Diego with a 85 career rating thru 5 seasons.
Tua's 8.9 and 8.3 Y/A averages match Brees' best. For comparison, Brees lived in the high-7's and Tua's career average is already there.
Tua's TD% is basically the same. The INT% is a perfect match. Brees' was worse early on and didn't really improve until Brees had been in the league for a decade.
Tua's sack rate of 5% isn't bad but Brees has a slight edge at 3.8% . Brees was the same as Tua early on though.
What does it mean?
I think it's fair to say that Tua is on track to at least match Drew Brees' production. The concern is whether Tua can turn into the iron man that Brees did. In fairness, Brees did miss 6 games in his first 3 seasons as a starter so even Brees stumbled a bit early on. He also had to fight through the devastating injury. Instead of a hip, it was his shoulder. He just got over it. Can Tua? Maybe this year is the first of many healthy seasons for Tua? But that is a question.
I think it's also possible that Miami has over-compensated with WR talent. Tua was serviceable with crap WRs in '20 and '21 and we didn't give him enough credit for that. I don't think he expressly needed Tyreek Hill and it's possible that the entire offense has become too lop-sided in featuring Hill. Whether McDaniel selfishly wanted to get Hill to 2,000-yds or Waddle's injuries played a factor in forcing the ball to Hill, we should probably respect the fact that what Brees proved--and to a large extent Tua has done this as well--is that a good pocket QB doesn't need the best WRs in the game.
It's more about having WRs who are where they're supposed to be. It's true that Brees often had a star guy like Marques Colston, Brandin Cooks, Michael Thomas and Jimmy Graham but those were spread over 15 seasons. He often had just 1-2 of those at a time. The truth is that Robert Meachem, Willie Snead, Devery Henderson, Ted Ginn, Jeremy Shockey and guys like that did a lot of the work, too. We certainly don't remember those guys as being historically great--because they weren't.
The Saints did a far better job building an OL in front of Brees. What Miami has is an embarrassment in comparison. This is one of those areas where it's not close. Brees also had a lot of guys return to that OL year-in, year-out as well. There was not only some high-level talent but some continuity. This needs to be fixed in Miami because it's one of those areas you could end up really wasting Tua's career.
The Saints did ultimately waste Brees' career. It should be said. When you have one of the best QBs in the NFL and your scoring defense is ranked consistently in the bottom 3rd in the league (even as bad as #31 and #32), you're doing a terrible job. To Grier's credit, Miami hasn't failed in this area. Miami's problem is the OL but failure absolutely IS in the cards if you can't resolve your biggest areas of concern.
What do we do?
I think we commit to Tua long-term and try to fix the OL. I don't think Tua is a our Carson Wentz--some random guy who had 2 great statistical seasons and then disappears. I think Tua is a legit great QB and I think he'll only improve with experience and longevity. Statistically he's delivering what winning teams get from their QB. Brees' playoff success was tied to the completeness of his team and that'll be true of Tua as well. It was true for Brady in NE if we're being honest. Good QBs get better over time and for Tua, that's pretty awesome considering he's already doing things it took Brees longer to do.
I wonder if we need to sort out the WR situation. It can't be all Tyreek Hill. I don't know that you dump him but you've got way too much attention going to WR1 right now and the other stuff has to get better and become more of the focus. It's easy to imagine Waddle being more involved once he's healthy and extending him contractually after that.
It's hard to think of Miami doing to unimaginable--trading Hill--but the Saints never had a guy like him and I don't think Brees would've been better forcing it to a single WR. They featured a crew of good WRs who their QB elevated and a slew of talented RBs who the OC used to great effect. That's what Miami needs to start doing. It's uncomfortable, but trading Hill while he has extreme value might be the crazy move you consider if it helps your defense and your OL.
I won't say more because it could go either way. Losing Hill wouldn't make you better but it would open a new doorway and that future might be the one with the better overall team roster. It's something to think about. Swapping Tyreek for a better OL would fix a more fundamental issue IMHO and the I think this Brees-type QB is good enough to make it work. It's kind of a nuclear option but we do live in a nuclear world.
Here's something to think about:
Brees never had Colston, Cooks or Graham account for more than 20-25% of his passing yards. The only exception during Brees' 15-yr streak of staying healthy was Michael Thomas at 35% in 2018.
20 seasons ('01 thru '20)
5 seasons in San Diego (rookie season on the bench)
15 seasons in New Orleans
Brees' by Team:
> 85 rating (SD)
> 102 rating (NO)
Brees' in 10-yr increments:
> 92 rating
> 105 rating
Brees' in 5-yr increments:
> 85 rating
> 96 rating
> 102 rating
> 108 rating
Brees' Cmp% in 5-yr increments:
> 62%
> 67%
> 68%
> 72%
Let's look at a few of Brees' most significant years.
2009 - The Saints go 13-3 and are the #1 seed. They win the Super Bowl.
Brees:
Cmp% - 70.6
Att - 514
Yds - 4,388
TD - 34
INT - 11
Y/A - 8.5
109.6 rating
Saints Weaponry:
Strength of Roster:
2011 - The Saints go 13-3 and win a Wildcard game.
Brees:
Cmp% - 71.2
Att - 657
Yds - 5,476
TD - 46
INT - 14
Y/A - 8.3
110.6 rating
Saints Weaponry:
Strength of Roster:
2018 - The Saints go 13-3 and win a Wildcard game.
Brees:
Cmp% - 74.4
Att - 489
Yds - 3,992
TD - 32
INT - 5
Y/A - 8.2
115.7 rating
Saints Weaponry:
Strength of Roster:
Take-Aways:
> Brees' legacy is based on what he did in the 2nd decade of his career.
> Brees cmp% rose steadily thru his career and it drove his elite passer rating near the end.
> Brees Int% wasn't great early on (~2.5%) but it dropped in the 2nd decade (~1.5%) which also drove his elite passer rating near the end.
> Brees was an iron man who only missed 4 games in 15-years between '04 and '18. Wow!
> Brees' attempts varied by year. Sometimes he threw 650 balls for 5,400-yds. Sometimes he threw 550 for 4,400-yds.
> Brees' weapons didn't carry him. He threw to a lot of okay receivers, bet very few great ones.
> Brees always had OL talent in front of him. His OL routinely made Pro Bowls and All-Pro lists.
> Brees had RB talent and his best teams often featured it: Pierre Thomas, Reggie Bush, Mark Ingram, Alvin Kamara, etc.
> The Saints D was horrible and held Brees back between '11 and '20 ranking as low as 28, 31 and 32 towards the end.
How does Tua compare?
I think Tua's already started his career much faster than Brees did. Brees was totally replaceable in San Diego with a 85 career rating thru 5 seasons.
Tua's 8.9 and 8.3 Y/A averages match Brees' best. For comparison, Brees lived in the high-7's and Tua's career average is already there.
Tua's TD% is basically the same. The INT% is a perfect match. Brees' was worse early on and didn't really improve until Brees had been in the league for a decade.
Tua's sack rate of 5% isn't bad but Brees has a slight edge at 3.8% . Brees was the same as Tua early on though.
What does it mean?
I think it's fair to say that Tua is on track to at least match Drew Brees' production. The concern is whether Tua can turn into the iron man that Brees did. In fairness, Brees did miss 6 games in his first 3 seasons as a starter so even Brees stumbled a bit early on. He also had to fight through the devastating injury. Instead of a hip, it was his shoulder. He just got over it. Can Tua? Maybe this year is the first of many healthy seasons for Tua? But that is a question.
I think it's also possible that Miami has over-compensated with WR talent. Tua was serviceable with crap WRs in '20 and '21 and we didn't give him enough credit for that. I don't think he expressly needed Tyreek Hill and it's possible that the entire offense has become too lop-sided in featuring Hill. Whether McDaniel selfishly wanted to get Hill to 2,000-yds or Waddle's injuries played a factor in forcing the ball to Hill, we should probably respect the fact that what Brees proved--and to a large extent Tua has done this as well--is that a good pocket QB doesn't need the best WRs in the game.
It's more about having WRs who are where they're supposed to be. It's true that Brees often had a star guy like Marques Colston, Brandin Cooks, Michael Thomas and Jimmy Graham but those were spread over 15 seasons. He often had just 1-2 of those at a time. The truth is that Robert Meachem, Willie Snead, Devery Henderson, Ted Ginn, Jeremy Shockey and guys like that did a lot of the work, too. We certainly don't remember those guys as being historically great--because they weren't.
The Saints did a far better job building an OL in front of Brees. What Miami has is an embarrassment in comparison. This is one of those areas where it's not close. Brees also had a lot of guys return to that OL year-in, year-out as well. There was not only some high-level talent but some continuity. This needs to be fixed in Miami because it's one of those areas you could end up really wasting Tua's career.
The Saints did ultimately waste Brees' career. It should be said. When you have one of the best QBs in the NFL and your scoring defense is ranked consistently in the bottom 3rd in the league (even as bad as #31 and #32), you're doing a terrible job. To Grier's credit, Miami hasn't failed in this area. Miami's problem is the OL but failure absolutely IS in the cards if you can't resolve your biggest areas of concern.
What do we do?
I think we commit to Tua long-term and try to fix the OL. I don't think Tua is a our Carson Wentz--some random guy who had 2 great statistical seasons and then disappears. I think Tua is a legit great QB and I think he'll only improve with experience and longevity. Statistically he's delivering what winning teams get from their QB. Brees' playoff success was tied to the completeness of his team and that'll be true of Tua as well. It was true for Brady in NE if we're being honest. Good QBs get better over time and for Tua, that's pretty awesome considering he's already doing things it took Brees longer to do.
I wonder if we need to sort out the WR situation. It can't be all Tyreek Hill. I don't know that you dump him but you've got way too much attention going to WR1 right now and the other stuff has to get better and become more of the focus. It's easy to imagine Waddle being more involved once he's healthy and extending him contractually after that.
It's hard to think of Miami doing to unimaginable--trading Hill--but the Saints never had a guy like him and I don't think Brees would've been better forcing it to a single WR. They featured a crew of good WRs who their QB elevated and a slew of talented RBs who the OC used to great effect. That's what Miami needs to start doing. It's uncomfortable, but trading Hill while he has extreme value might be the crazy move you consider if it helps your defense and your OL.
I won't say more because it could go either way. Losing Hill wouldn't make you better but it would open a new doorway and that future might be the one with the better overall team roster. It's something to think about. Swapping Tyreek for a better OL would fix a more fundamental issue IMHO and the I think this Brees-type QB is good enough to make it work. It's kind of a nuclear option but we do live in a nuclear world.
Here's something to think about:
Brees never had Colston, Cooks or Graham account for more than 20-25% of his passing yards. The only exception during Brees' 15-yr streak of staying healthy was Michael Thomas at 35% in 2018.
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