Something To Think About / Alternative To Outright Tanking

Discussion in 'Miami Dolphins Forum' started by miamirw, Mar 14, 2019.

  1. miamirw

    miamirw Pro Bowler

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    While I would rather use the new cap space to extend our three most valuable pieces - Xavien Howard, Kenyan Drake and Laremy Tunsil, I might be inclined to trade one if it nets us a high #1 pick in 2020.

    Right now, Tunsil and Howard are the only ones worth a legitimate #1 pick, and Tunsil is probably worth a mid to late 1st round pick, and as such would not secure enough in return were a qualifying trade partner available.

    That leaves Howard as the only tradeable piece that we have. I would say he's worth a top 5 pick right now. Think Darrell Revis before the injuries. He's ENTERING his prime. I would much rather sign Howard to a six or seven year extension. However, if we could identify a lower tier team (one that was 9-7 or worse last year) that could potentially, with injuries or improper coaching/leadership, have a shot at the worst record in the league, make the trade - Howard (or Drake and Tannehill) for that team's 2020 1st round pick.

    Imagine this scenario: It's mid 2019, our beloved Phins have won 2 games but they're improving greatly in the trenches. We hold our own 2020 1st round pick and the Jets/Jaguars/Cardinals/Raiders etc. 1st round pick and they currently have 1 win. We would have a shot at the Top pick outright, and if not, with two very high 1st round picks, we would have the ammunition to move into the top 2 if we wanted to. With the Giants being the only team that would keep us from the top pick, we would be assured the number two pick and that Clemson QB would be a nice pivot right there.

    I would only do this if it's a trade with a mediocre or worse team. Over the next three to five years, Xavien Howard is going to be a Top 2 corner in this league. Tunsil is going to be very good for the next 10 years. Drake is a running back and while I love what he brings to the table, RBs hold their value for a small period of time. So if you could trade Drake for a late 1st rounder (to someone like say the Raiders), I would do that.
     
  2. marino13zach54

    marino13zach54 FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    I don't know what team would give us a 1st for Drake but it would end with me throwing a bbq for the entire neighborhood. No need to BYOB. The kegs (plural) are on me.
     
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  3. miamirw

    miamirw Pro Bowler

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    BTW Love that picture of Zach!
     
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  4. SF Dolphin Fan

    SF Dolphin Fan Seasoned Veteran

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    If trading Howard leads directly to a franchise quarterback Miami would have to do that. Simply put, a top quarterback opens the door to be in the running for potentially a long duration of time.

    I keep hoping for q deal up tor Haskins because I think he can be a top 10 quarterback in this league.
     
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  5. TruePoizon

    TruePoizon A True Fan

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    Howard had one good season. He missed many games that season and was torched by Hopkins. An elite, top paid CB should do well against an elite WR. Howard did not, and he wants to be the best paid CB ever. If some team like the Raiders will give us a 1st for him, you take it. Even if its a 3rd this year and a 1st next year, I'd take it.

    Now we have 2 holes at CB. But those holes can be filled up in FA and 2nd round.
     
  6. Digital

    Digital Starter Finheaven VIP

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    Part of any plan for success is to assess what you have and what you need. To maximize success you may need to sacrifice strengths to shore up weaknesses. So, it's all on the table. But, you also need to evaluate potential return.

    For instance, CB1's are very hard to find, and always get highly compensated. No 1st round pick is going to net you what you already have in Xavien Howard, because CB1's are not readily plug-and-play assets. They work with a scheme and rely on confidence. Outside of their settings, they don't always translate well. Look at the big name CB transfers recently. The Jet who went to Tampa … promptly got injured, ate salary cap, and contributed next to nothing. The Panther who went to Washington and promptly became average. In both cases the team losing the CB1 never really replaced him. The team who ended up with that player regretted it as he woefully underperformed. It's a risk. Because it's a risk, you're not going to get full value in trading a CB1.

    Since Howard fits our scheme and is very young (drafted extremely young), it makes more sense to keep and re-sign him. We'll be using more DB's in this scheme, so adding 3 instead of 2 really complicates the rebuild as well.

    Not every player/position analysis looks like this … but that's one example where the concept is valid, but the decision probably tilts heavily toward keeping the player.
     
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  7. russianbear

    russianbear FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    I sense you’re reversing the ceiling of Howard and Tunsil.

    I’m leaning towards keeping Howard because we need DBs and he fits the scheme well. If someone offers a screaming deal I’d take it, but otherwise just sign him.
     
  8. artdnj

    artdnj Time is Now Finheaven VIP

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    We won't get a top 5 pic for anybody on the roster
     
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  9. fansinceGWilson

    fansinceGWilson FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP Donator

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    I'm not trading a top, young, proven #1CB for ANYTHING less than a top 3 pick.
     
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  10. marino13zach54

    marino13zach54 FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    Brother, if it gets me a franchise QB, I’m trading my own mother.

    Don’t judge me forum! She’s had a good life. I’m obviously joking... I... think?
     
  11. fansinceGWilson

    fansinceGWilson FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP Donator

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    If it were guaranteed elite QB, I'm in. There are no guarantees. X is as close to a guarantee as we can get. And a 3rd just about guarantees a chance at that QB.
     
  12. marino13zach54

    marino13zach54 FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    I didn’t mention that I don’t want to trade X. I don’t.

    Of course there are no guarantees but it’s a risk worth taking.
     
  13. superphin

    superphin don't go clown shoes on us Finheaven VIP

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    How is Tannehill+Drake=a 1st round pick? We can't even find a trade partner for Tannehill to begin with, I don't see how adding Drake who hasn't done anything special yet would add that much more value.
     
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  14. fansinceGWilson

    fansinceGWilson FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP Donator

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    As you know, there's a debate on that
     
  15. marino13zach54

    marino13zach54 FinHeaven VIP Finheaven VIP

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    And a good debate it is.

    We are in need at so many positions but what of it if we don’t secure the most important position?

    And who is to say if any QB this year, next, the following, etc will secure a franchise QB.

    Trade up, stay put, trade back- a sound case can be made for all 3.
     

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