Something To Think About / Alternative To Outright Tanking

[Gonzo]

I didn’t mention that I don’t want to trade X. I don’t.

Of course there are no guarantees but it’s a risk worth taking.

No thanks, I need a guaranteed top pick. Nobody is going to trade that once they know they have a top pick and I'm not betting a good player on the mere chance of landing one.

 

[marino13zach54]

No thanks, I need a guaranteed top pick. Nobody is going to trade that once they know they have a top pick and I'm not betting a good player on the mere chance of landing one.

There are no guarantees in life, Gonzo. I think that should go without saying.

X could get injured in training camp (all of FH please find wood to knock on against that).

And I’m not into trading X unless it’s for a move up for a QB.

You’re rebuilding to put young pieces like X around X, not to trade X.

But when you say QB to me, I say who do I have to screw, suck, or Kraft off to get one, especially in the likes of Murray.

 

[BlueFin]

While I would rather use the new cap space to extend our three most valuable pieces - Xavien Howard, Kenyan Drake and Laremy Tunsil, I might be inclined to trade one if it nets us a high #1 pick in 2020.

Right now, Tunsil and Howard are the only ones worth a legitimate #1 pick, and Tunsil is probably worth a mid to late 1st round pick, and as such would not secure enough in return were a qualifying trade partner available.

That leaves Howard as the only tradeable piece that we have. I would say he's worth a top 5 pick right now. Think Darrell Revis before the injuries. He's ENTERING his prime. I would much rather sign Howard to a six or seven year extension. However, if we could identify a lower tier team (one that was 9-7 or worse last year) that could potentially, with injuries or improper coaching/leadership, have a shot at the worst record in the league, make the trade - Howard (or Drake and Tannehill) for that team's 2020 1st round pick.

Imagine this scenario: It's mid 2019, our beloved Phins have won 2 games but they're improving greatly in the trenches. We hold our own 2020 1st round pick and the Jets/Jaguars/Cardinals/Raiders etc. 1st round pick and they currently have 1 win. We would have a shot at the Top pick outright, and if not, with two very high 1st round picks, we would have the ammunition to move into the top 2 if we wanted to. With the Giants being the only team that would keep us from the top pick, we would be assured the number two pick and that Clemson QB would be a nice pivot right there.

I would only do this if it's a trade with a mediocre or worse team. Over the next three to five years, Xavien Howard is going to be a Top 2 corner in this league. Tunsil is going to be very good for the next 10 years. Drake is a running back and while I love what he brings to the table, RBs hold their value for a small period of time. So if you could trade Drake for a late 1st rounder (to someone like say the Raiders), I would do that.

Tunsil is a worth a lot more than a speculative pick....I don’t see us trading any of them, but if we do I would think Howard... Tunsil is too valuable.

 

[jtoomuch]

Part of any plan for success is to assess what you have and what you need. To maximize success you may need to sacrifice strengths to shore up weaknesses. So, it's all on the table. But, you also need to evaluate potential return.

For instance, CB1's are very hard to find, and always get highly compensated. No 1st round pick is going to net you what you already have in Xavien Howard, because CB1's are not readily plug-and-play assets. They work with a scheme and rely on confidence. Outside of their settings, they don't always translate well. Look at the big name CB transfers recently. The Jet who went to Tampa … promptly got injured, ate salary cap, and contributed next to nothing. The Panther who went to Washington and promptly became average. In both cases the team losing the CB1 never really replaced him. The team who ended up with that player regretted it as he woefully underperformed. It's a risk. Because it's a risk, you're not going to get full value in trading a CB1.

Since Howard fits our scheme and is very young (drafted extremely young), it makes more sense to keep and re-sign him. We'll be using more DB's in this scheme, so adding 3 instead of 2 really complicates the rebuild as well.

Not every player/position analysis looks like this … but that's one example where the concept is valid, but the decision probably tilts heavily toward keeping the player.

I agree, Howard is exactly the kind of player you lock up. due to his age, talent and the position he plays. If you don't want to keep a guy like him, who would you keep?

 

[Gonzo]

There are no guarantees in life, Gonzo. I think that should go without saying.

X could get injured in training camp (all of FH please find wood to knock on against that).

And I’m not into trading X unless it’s for a move up for a QB.

You’re rebuilding to put young pieces like X around X, not to trade X.

But when you say QB to me, I say who do I have to screw, suck, or Kraft off to get one, especially in the likes of Murray.

If the team with the #1 pick next year (hopefully us) trades it to us for Xavien Howard, then that would make it guaranteed. Literally. And that's the only way I would do it. Obviously, that's not going to happen. I'm also not trading a player on the idea that he might "get injured in training camp."

We're simply going to have to suck this year if we want a top QB next year. No way around that.

 

[marino13zach54]

"get injured in training camp”

Of course not. I was making the point that there are no guarantees. That goes for having the #1 overall pick as well.

If Murray is sitting there at 5 and the Bucs want to deal for a reasonable price, if X is a part of the equation, I wish X the best in Tampa.

 

[jbyrd850]

Drake ain't on the same level as Tunsil and X. I'd love for him to be but he's just not, he's easily replaceable and is not top 10-15 at his position.

Team should be trying to extend Tunsil and X. Let Drake play out his rookie deal and then resign him for cheap or draft other running backs.

 

[KBEE]

The four cornerstones on a football team is QB, LT, CB and DE. We have two and both are still on rookie contracts. We need to build on that, not create more holes. There are no guarantees they can be replaced in the next couple years.

 

[39wildman]

GM is keep. browns got good gm now.

 

[Gonzo]

Of course not. I was making the point that there are no guarantees. That goes for having the #1 overall pick as well.

If Murray is sitting there at 5 and the Bucs want to deal for a reasonable price, if X is a part of the equation, I wish X the best in Tampa.

In which case it's guaranteed we get a top QB. I have no interest taking a risk on potential future picks. I know you like the fanciful concept of "there are no guarantees," but that's simply avoiding the point. The only way I'm interested in trading him for draft picks is if the holder (not potential holder) of a top 3 (or maybe only the 1st overall pick, depending on which QBs declare) calls, in which case I'm guaranteed (yes, guaranteed) a top QB prospect.

Obviously, there's no chance in that happening, so there's pretty much no realistic scenario in which I'm okay with trading Howard.

 

[marino13zach54]

In which case it's guaranteed we get a top QB. I have no interest taking a risk on potential future picks. I know you like the fanciful concept of "there are no guarantees," but that's simply avoiding the point. The only way I'm interested in trading him for draft picks is if the holder (not potential holder) of a top 3 (or maybe only the 1st overall pick, depending on which QBs declare) calls, in which case I'm guaranteed (yes, guaranteed) a top QB prospect.

Obviously, there's no chance in that happening, so there's pretty much no realistic scenario in which I'm okay with trading Howard.

I'm lost, dude.

I never advocated, nor will I, trading X for a a mere unknown draft pick so I'm lost there.

I am talking about trading X for the guarantee of a top QB prospect and only for a top QB prospect so I'm lost there as well.

What are we discussing? I may be 2 Excedrin tablets short of a full medicine cabinet but I don't see where we are in disagreement except for the "fanciful concept."

It's not a fanciful concept. It's a fact that the only guarantee in life is death. Is it an easy stance? Absolutely. Does it deviate from my point? No.

Even if trading X gets you a top QB prospect there's still the risk of a bust when you already know X is money.