Super Bowl odds after FA and 2013 Draft

[dlockz]

Yeah, we need some one to keep it real around here.

I want to win as much as the next man but lets break .500 geesh

 

[Awsi Dooger]

The miami heat basically would pay u 1 dollar for every 3 you bet on one site I have seen. I wonder which books are offering the field for nba championship that could be an interesting bet if you had good enough odds

The 1/3 (-300) on the Heat is much too steep. It's true some sites are using it. The more respected books are quite a bit lower. 5Dimes has the Heat -190 to win the title, while William Hill is -175.

Anyone betting on the Heat would be much better off to take the prices of the 3 remaining series and roll them over. You'd end up with considerably better than 1/3, and probably better than -175 (4/7).

However, I hesitate to mention that type of thing because it's not realistic. An occasional bettor is not going to roll over series prices, no more than I would dive right in to a specialized aspect of their occupation. That type wants a ticket in their pocket, and some rooting interest. Keep it simple. I fully understand it. There's a thread on a major golf forum right now, with a poster saying his friend wants to bet him $250 on Tiger Woods winning at least 2 of the 3 remaining majors for the rest of the year. His buddy only wants 4/1 odds. The poster senses it's a great deal, but is nervous about losing $1000. I posted in that thread, as did dozens of others. I wanted to tell him the same thing others pointed out, that he could take the bet and then go the other way, guaranteeing a profit. It's called scalping, or arbitraging. The true odds are closer to 9/1 than 4/1. But I zapped a large section of my post once I understood that guy is not going to wait for the US Open, British Open and PGA and isolate the correct props to bet, to hedge his friend's wager. He needs to evaluate the risk as it applies to him, and other variables like stress.

I haven't seen Heat vs. the Field but I'm sure somebody is offering it. Off the top of my head, it would probably be something like Heat -180 and the Field +140. They aren't going to give you a big plus on the Field because that type of prop is too volatile. An injury can change plenty, like Westbrook the other day. Miami jumped 40 cents when that happened. They were in the 5/7 (-140) range to win the title when the playoffs opened.

Regarding NFL futures book odds, they aren't a good investment unless the team earns the top seed in a conference, or possibly the second seed. That's the way to look at it. There is so much juice and such a rip off in general that only a few teams will enter the playoffs with considerably lower odds than were available prior to the season. Even when a team barely sneaks into the playoffs, their true odds can be 60/1 or higher.

Road underdog/road underdog/road underdog/neutral site underdog.

That's easily 60/1. It can approach 100/1, if the spreads are unfavorable enough.