Suprise Pick?

[ToddPhin]

I personally don't think Davenport is even on the radar with the way this FO works. He's not a current need and with amount of money they invested in Branch, equity invested in Harris with a 1st, and money/pick invested in Quinn, i can't see them taking Davenport.....even if he is possibly viewed as the BPA on the board when they pick.

It seems like they are dead set on drafting a QB, LB, DB or DT in the 1st round.

?? This front office loves pass rushers and D-linemen.
Branch is a right-side end and probably wont be here next year.
Harris is a right-side end.
Quinn has been a right-side guy most of his career as well.... and has 2 yrs on his hefty contract.
Neither of the latter 2 are strong-side guys.
There is no left-side end or strong-side end to start in this defense on 1st & 2nd downs moving forward.
Locking down a guy who can actually play on that left side.... or more importantly- play the strong side...... or more importantly than that- offer the flexibility to line up on either side.... is a pretty big need for this team, especially when you're talking about the 2nd most important position in football. Cant just ignore the ever-important left side of the line just b/c we've got Harris, Quinn, and Branch at RDE.

The fact of the matter remains, there is no precedence here for a 37 year old edge rusher [Wake] having great seasons at that late age.... and the other fact is that it typically requires a year for a DE to adjust to the NFL. With that in mind, Wake is not a guy you want starting in base D..... and you really need to approach 2019 as a season that he's likely to hit the wall in, if he doesn't already do so this year. What happens if Wake does hit the wall this year? Is Harris a proven commodity yet? Is Quinn proven in this system or has he proven that he can become the prior version of himself, before injuries, enough so to justify keeping him around at his cost? If Wake hits the wall this year, and you wait until the 2019 draft to address the position after it's already become a dire need, then you not only lose out on some of this 2018 season but you also don't have a guy ready to contribute at a high level in 2019 b/c you waited too long to address the position and now have a rookie starting. Not to mention, this mentality operates on the belief that a great DE will just magically appear when we need one and regardless of our draft position.

We know it's a light need now and will likely be a very big need in the near future, so it's wise to draft the guy now (especially while there's a great player available)..... and then give him a year to adjust so that the transition into a starting role is seamless. That's what it's all about. Starting rookies on the other hand, having to rely on their typically inefficient production, is not what it's about. You can still get a good LB on day 2 and perhaps even early on Day 3 with a guy like Genard Avery, but if we enter 2019 with a massive hole at LDE, that could be highly problematic, much more so than any hole we currently have. What if we're drafting in the late teens and the best guy available to us is in the 7-10 range, how much is that going to cost us to trade up? -a 2020 1st rounder + our original 2019 1st? You could conceivably end up doubling our cost by waiting until it's too late, whereas we can nail it now with just 1 draft pick. Much easier to find corners, backers, and safeties after round 1 and throughout the draft, every draft, and in FA than it is to find a pass rusher worthy of becoming Wake's heir.

When it comes to pass rushers, it's advisable to not look a gift horse in the mouth.

 

[PSU Cane]

?? This front office loves pass rushers and D-linemen.
Branch is a right-side end and probably wont be here next year.
Harris is a right-side end.
Quinn has been a right-side guy most of his career as well.... and has 2 yrs on his hefty contract.
Neither of the latter 2 are strong-side guys.
There is no left-side end or strong-side end to start in this defense on 1st & 2nd downs moving forward.
Locking down a guy who can actually play on that left side.... or more importantly- play the strong side...... or more importantly than that- offer the flexibility to line up on either side.... is a pretty big need for this team, especially when you're talking about the 2nd most important position in football. Cant just ignore the ever-important left side of the line just b/c we've got Harris, Quinn, and Branch at RDE.

The fact of the matter remains, there is no precedence here for a 37 year old edge rusher [Wake] having great seasons at that late age.... and the other fact is that it typically requires a year for a DE to adjust to the NFL. With that in mind, Wake is not a guy you want starting in base D..... and you really need to approach 2019 as a season that he's likely to hit the wall in, if he doesn't already do so this year. What happens if Wake does hit the wall this year? Is Harris a proven commodity yet? Is Quinn proven in this system or has he proven that he can become the prior version of himself, before injuries, enough so to justify keeping him around at his cost? If Wake hits the wall this year, and you wait until the 2019 draft to address the position after it's already become a dire need, then you not only lose out on some of this 2018 season but you also don't have a guy ready to contribute at a high level in 2019 b/c you waited too long to address the position and now have a rookie starting. Not to mention, this mentality operates on the belief that a great DE will just magically appear when we need one and regardless of our draft position.

We know it's a light need now and will likely be a very big need in the near future, so it's wise to draft the guy now (especially while there's a great player available)..... and then give him a year to adjust so that the transition into a starting role is seamless. That's what it's all about. Starting rookies on the other hand, having to rely on their typically inefficient production, is not what it's about. You can still get a good LB on day 2 and perhaps even early on Day 3 with a guy like Genard Avery, but if we enter 2019 with a massive hole at LDE, that could be highly problematic, much more so than any hole we currently have. What if we're drafting in the late teens and the best guy available to us is in the 7-10 range, how much is that going to cost us to trade up? -a 2020 1st rounder + our original 2019 1st? You could conceivably end up doubling our cost by waiting until it's too late, whereas we can nail it now with just 1 draft pick. Much easier to find corners, backers, and safeties after round 1 and throughout the draft, every draft, and in FA than it is to find a pass rusher worthy of becoming Wake's heir.

When it comes to pass rushers, it's advisable to not look a gift horse in the mouth.

I'm not saying it's right - i'm just saying our front office has a recent history of zeroing in a need positions, isolating certain players and not budging from those targets. With the depth we have at DE for the next year or two while having serious gaps at other positions, i can see this FO being locked in elsewhere.

I personally would stick to my board. I would apply a multiplier to need positions, but if a DE was still much higher than a FS, i would at least consider it.

 

[Eesti]

I think a surprise pick would be Da'Ron Payne. He just fits perfectly in this scheme, IMO. The guy is just starting to realize his potential and is only 20 years old. I don't know about taking him at 11 but a trade down maybe.

I would not pass on the two LB's or two safeties though.