I agree with you about Carter over Thomas and about another Addai injury being just a matter of time. Carter's sort of become my sleeper pick for rookie of the year, actually. It's crazy how good his feet have looked because at Syracuse he looked like such a straight-lineish running back. It was one of the things I disliked about him ,actually. Those guys who weave through traffic rather than making actual hard cuts never appeal to me as much. But he's looked good.
As for the Saints in the Super Bowl... I can't fault that bet. Most teams have a Super Bowl hangover and then you see them make another run after a break of a year. The Rams did it in 2001 after being bad in 2000. The Pats needed a year off after beating the Rams in 2001 and won back to back after the 2002 and 2003 seasons. Pittsburgh took a year off to be average after winning it two years ago and making it back last year. The Saints are poised to do that again this year, too (though most of the examples I've cited here lost, actually, which would be a particularly bad way to lose that bet).
It happens. You can look at Green Bay's roster and say they will go back but it's much more than likely that they'll have all kinds of problems this year. It's just the way it goes.
But as for the Saints specifically... yeah, they're having all kinds of problems with their run defense. Their linebackers are small and something's going on with their defensive line. I don't know what. But like the Colts or the Eagles, that team is designed for the offense to get up big and then they hammer you with pressure on the quarterback, and the good news for the Saints is their offense should be better than ever. Their offensive line is intact and with Ingram and Sproles they're better than they've ever been at running back. Jimmy Graham is poised to have a breakout season. Colston's microfracture surgery is a concern but that's kind of who he is at this point in his career. Lance Moore is an underrated red zone threat. Robert Meachem would have been a bust most places but they've found a good way to use him.
Everybody's NFC darling is the Falcons but I think they take a step back this year, honestly. Their secondary is poor, they don't get good pressure up front, Turner is slowing down and Gonzalez is just barely hanging on to his talent. They have some real talent at WR but it wouldn't shock me to see Harry Douglass actually have a better season statistically than Julio Jones. Wide receiver is a really hard position to learn and the lockout will hurt him. Plus, he's been dropping the ball in preseason. And Matt Ryan... it's sacrilege to some around here but I continue to think he's an overrated player. Some want to put him up there with Brees, Rivers and Roethlisberger in that top second group of quarterbacks but that's not where he is to my eyes. I have him in the same group with Romo, Schaub and Josh Freeman and probably at the bottom of that group. I do like him better than guys like Eli Manning, Cutler and Flacco, though.
