Tannehill has completed 44.1% of his deepballs in his 2 yrs but only 23% to Wallace

[Hayden Fox]

Is there a chance that RT's deep balls beyond say, 30 yards are off, but the tosses with the 20's are good? Don't know. However, he is leaving points on the board with some misses. I am not convinced he is a good deep ball thrower.

 

[regency]

ryan tannehill cannot throw rainbows he only throws lasers. if he is going to throw as 45 yard pass, its going to be a 45 yard laser pass. you need to throw those arching passes if your going to get it over the defenders.

 

[enigmatics]

The arc thing is overblown. It's actually kind of confusing because considering the evaluation work I do, more often than not I hear scouts CRITICIZING players for having high arc on their deep passes (which means they float, take a long time to come down). But here we are with Tannehill and for some reason a multitude of fans think he should be floating these deep passes.

It depends on the coverage whether or not it needs to be "dropped" into a particular window. Also, just because a guy can put touch on the ball in order to achieve that does not automatically mean it was a "floater". IMO from watching all of Tanny's games, he doesn't have much touch in that regard. It's a relatively "lower" trajectory pass.

Don't know about the "flick of the wrist" argument because 20 yards beyond the line of scrimmage does not necessarily mean a 20 yard throw. If the throw is outside the numbers, most often it means a 30-35 yard throw (measured in a straight line) and that's a good sized throw. It's not easy to be accurate at that depth. It's something you have to key on with college players coming out to see if they have the ability to throw at NFL distances.

If it's 20 yards down the field and over the middle that could be a 25 yard throw or so and that's not that big a deal. It's a bread and butter throw. I've often wondered if PFF shouldn't break out a fourth level at 30+ yards. I hear what you're saying there.

Ya, the stat is sort've lumped summed.

 

[ckparrothead]

Is there a chance that RT's deep balls beyond say, 30 yards are off, but the tosses with the 20's are good? Don't know. However, he is leaving points on the board with some misses. I am not convinced he is a good deep ball thrower.

They all leave points on the board with missed deep throws. All quarterbacks miss deep. I think the problem is that many Dolphins fans don't have enough exposure to other quarterbacks.

It's sort of like the tight end thing. Most Dolphins fans are absolutely convinced that Miami's defense has been weak to tight endes for most of the last decade. They never cite any evidence, it's just something that is known to them, that the Dolphins have been one of the worst defenses against tight ends. Except it doesn't stand up to objective verification. There have in fact been several seasons where Miami was among the very best at defending tight ends.

Tannehill's not a great deep ball thrower. He may temporarily rank higher but he's not going to stay among the top 5 or 7 for very long when he does. He's mediocre. But there are some damn good QBs out there that show up mediocre in this measure. And some good ones that consistently show up in the cellar (Flacco).

 

[enigmatics]

ryan tannehill cannot throw rainbows he only throws lasers. if he is going to throw as 45 yard pass, its going to be a 45 yard laser pass. you need to throw those arching passes if your going to get it over the defenders.

This is what I was saying.

It comes in handy with all those comeback/curl and back shoulder throws they rely on, but not on the deeper stuff.

 

[ckparrothead]

It depends on the coverage whether or not it needs to be "dropped" into a particular window. Also, just because a guy can put touch on the ball in order to achieve that does not automatically mean it was a "floater". IMO from watching all of Tanny's games, he doesn't have much touch in that regard. It's a relatively "lower" trajectory pass.

When it comes to the deep ball there is very little difference between a ball that has the high arc you talk about wanting and a ball that people criticize as "hanging" too long. If any.

Low trajectory on a true deep ball is good, as long as it's accurate. It means the ball will arrive there faster. That's a good thing. Less time in the air means less chance that the receiver is going to out-distance the ball, which would result in an underthrow. It also gives the DB less chance to close on the ball. Low trajectory maximizes the separation created against the DB.

There are passes that require "touch". A true deep ball (we're talking 30-40 yards beyond the line of scrimmage) is not one of those passes.

Now, if the low trajectory and faster speed causes you to misfire and be inaccurate, that is different. That's a different story. Accuracy and timing are key on the deep ball so you need to throw it however you can in order to achieve those things.

 

[roy_miami]

Two of them were hail mary throws. I do recall that much.

I think that circus act INT between the New England DBs was a deep ball to Wallace too, can't remember the 4th one for the life of me.

 

[Hayden Fox]

They all leave points on the board with missed deep throws. All quarterbacks miss deep. I think the problem is that many Dolphins fans don't have enough exposure to other quarterbacks.

It's sort of like the tight end thing. Most Dolphins fans are absolutely convinced that Miami's defense has been weak to tight endes for most of the last decade. They never cite any evidence, it's just something that is known to them, that the Dolphins have been one of the worst defenses against tight ends. Except it doesn't stand up to objective verification. There have in fact been several seasons where Miami was among the very best at defending tight ends.

Tannehill's not a great deep ball thrower. He may temporarily rank higher but he's not going to stay among the top 5 or 7 for very long when he does. He's mediocre. But there are some damn good QBs out there that show up mediocre in this measure. And some good ones that consistently show up in the cellar (Flacco).

Flacco is low on that metric? Wow. Not have guessed. He is the best in the game going deep IMO.

 

[Shouright]

Flacco is low on that metric? Wow. Not have guessed. He is the best in the game going deep IMO.

Confirmation bias.

 

[enigmatics]

When it comes to the deep ball there is very little difference between a ball that has the high arc you talk about wanting and a ball that people criticize as "hanging" too long. If any.

Low trajectory on a true deep ball is good, as long as it's accurate. It means the ball will arrive there faster. That's a good thing. Less time in the air means less chance that the receiver is going to out-distance the ball, which would result in an underthrow. It also gives the DB less chance to close on the ball. Low trajectory maximizes the separation created against the DB.

There are passes that require "touch". A true deep ball (we're talking 30-40 yards beyond the line of scrimmage) is not one of those passes.

Now, if the low trajectory and faster speed causes you to misfire and be inaccurate, that is different. That's a different story. Accuracy and timing are key on the deep ball so you need to throw it however you can in order to achieve those things.

Again, it sounds like you're lump summing the passes. Sure, if a long ball thrown hard at low trajectory gets there quicker that MIGHT be better. That "depends" on the coverage and if the WR has enough of a step. In regards to arcing of the ball .... it depends. If the WR doesn't have a step yet on the DB and the QB is anticipating he will, then more arc is needed to allow for it. I'm not saying to put a high arc on the ball every single time the QB throws the deep ball. But that's my point of contention with Tanny. He doesn't have really any variation to it whatsoever. It's thrown basically the same way every time.

Regardless, I don't agree that "touch" isn't required on those passes. That "touch" is what helps on the location of the ball in tight windows, otherwise we're just talking about chucking and praying. Touch has always been part of the conversation when it comes to accuracy and timing. I've sat and watched as analysts describe the process using that very word. It's just that there are levels of touch depending on the type of pass ..... for example screen passes. QB's can't just fire a bullet off at an RB when the pass needs to be lightly arched over the on-coming DLineman who are being purposely let in.

We'll agree to disagree though. I don't see either one of us conceding to each other's points. LOL

 

[Tunaphish429]

They need to get on the same page. Wallace can't catch a cold but he has had to slow down and stop way too often for passes. I feel like Ryan has the timing down he is throwing the ball when it should be thrown but he needs to put more mustard on it.


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[J. David Wannyheimer]

They need to get on the same page. Wallace can't catch a cold but he has had to slow down and stop way too often for passes. I feel like Ryan has the timing down he is throwing the ball when it should be thrown but he needs to put more mustard on it.

After what I've seen and heard this week, I've come to believe that the exact opposite is true. The problem is not his arm strength, it's the timing of the plays. The ball needs to get out sooner.

 

[Hayden Fox]

Confirmation bias.

Huh...no idea what you are saying. I am not a metrics guy, but find it strange Flacco is low...if that is true. Maybe that is why I yawn thru metrics talk.

 

[Sirspud]

Some of these deep balls that Tannehill hit were on completely blown coverages, like the one to Marlon Moore versus the Rams and Brian Hartline versus the Cardinals last year. There is a difference between a guy being open and a blown coverage, a blown coverage will let the receiver adjust to a poorly thrown ball because the defense isn't there, but teams simply aren't going to blow coverages facing a guy like Mike Wallace. He is able to get 5 steps on his defender, which should be ample to easily fit a ball in there, but there is still less room for error.

 

[ckparrothead]

Huh...no idea what you are saying. I am not a metrics guy, but find it strange Flacco is low...if that is true. Maybe that is why I yawn thru metrics talk.

"Metrics" is a fancy way of saying "what actually happened on a football field". That's all we're talking about here. Yes, Joe Flacco is consistently one of the least likely to have a deep pass either be caught or dropped by his receiver. However, he throws a LOT of them. That's why some people (being unaware of how often he throws deep) will swear they see him completing deep passes all the time.

Yeah, when you throw deep like 6 times a game you're going to end up with 2 of them completed or dropped pretty much every game even if you've got a low accuracy percentage.