Teams Rarely Draft QBs in the 1st Round?

[MRojas4]

Well, one must keep in mind basically the top 2-3 QB's in any draft are usually gone by the 10-15th pick. Any the drop off after that is HUGE (most of the time). Not to mention QB is the hardest positon to transfer from college and unless you are drafting the sure 100% superstar, most teams like to wait till later round to find their "development" QB.

Not to mention most QB's will sit on the bench for a year or two (if the team is smart), rarely can a QB come straight into the league and play at a high level. Unlike a RB or WR were the transition is basically instant.

 

[The Confessor]

Whats just as telling as Shou's original thought, study the teams that have taken the MOST 1st rounders......

It's counter-intuitive to say the least.


I posted in another thread, 1-1's that have been drafted. More often that not, by a count IIRC 5-1, the 1-1 QB's are NOT successful.

 

[Daytona Fin]

half of that list has won a super bowl since 1983

 

[Shouright]

half of that list has won a super bowl since 1983

Well considering that 28 Super Bowls have been played during that time span, and with the infrequency with which teams repeat as Super Bowl winners, it would stand to reason that at least 16 of the 32 teams in the league would have won Super Bowls during that time.

 

[MRojas4]

Averages out to about 2.3 QB's a year in the first round which sounds about right.

 

[dol-phan007]

The reason that not many QB's have been taken in the 1st round is that There are only a couple QB's taken every year. If there were more talented QB's coming out then there would be more taken.

 

[Spesh]

Only seven teams have taken 3 or more during that time.

Nine teams besides us have taken 1 or fewer.

The rest have taken 2.

I would say we're not nearly as far off the beaten path as many seem to have expressed.

I don't think you can say that if a team took exactly one more quarterback than we have, they're somehow "on the ball" and we're not.

The average career span of a franchise quarterback is what? 12 years or so? 15 for the exceptional players like Manning, Marino, and Elway?

So teams "only" spending 1 or 2 first rounders on quarterbacks is not at all shocking.
The fact that the Saints are the only other team not to draft one is itself telling, as they were historically awful until they acquired a quarterback. A quarterback who was taken with the 32 pick originally, which is in the first round in current drafts.

The fact is, we haven't taken a quarterback when we've had the chance. We have had those chances because we haven't made the playoffs often, haven't won a playoff game, and have had alot of lost games. We have had alot of lost games because we do not have a quarterback. Way to fix this cycle? Actually draft a quarterback when given the chance.

 

[tylerdolphin]

If you hit on a QB int he first, you arent gonna be picking another one in the first for a long time. Then you have some teams that got lucky later in the draft or through FA/trades (Pats, GB, NO, ect.). Doesnt change the fact that the best way to find a franchise QB is to use a high 1st round pick on one.

 

[MRojas4]

First Round QB's Past Few Years

2008
Matt Ryan
Joe Flacco

2009
Matthew Stafford
Mark Sanchez
Josh Freeman

2010
Sam Bradford
Tim Tebow

2011
Cam Newton
Jake Locker
Blaine Gabbert
Christian Ponder

 

[MRojas4]

As others have said,

If you "hit" on a first round QB. Chances are your set for the next 8-12 years.

 

[Shouright]

So teams "only" spending 1 or 2 first rounders on quarterbacks is not at all shocking.

Well if that's true, then perhaps we should stop being so shocked that the Dolphins have picked only one during that time.

 

[The Confessor]

First Round QB's Past Few Years

2008
Matt Ryan
Joe Flacco

2009
Matthew Stafford
Mark Sanchez
Josh Freeman

2010
Sam Bradford
Tim Tebow

2011
Cam Newton
Jake Locker
Blaine Gabbert
Christian Ponder

There are 4 in that list that are actually worth where they were drafted (To date anyways. Who knows on Locker, Gabbert or Ponder).
We didnt have a chance to pick any of those 4 except Flacco, and NOBODY saw him being as successful as he has been.

 

[Shouright]

As others have said,

If you "hit" on a first round QB. Chances are your set for the next 8-12 years.

I think if you devled into it more deeply, you'd find that fewer than half of those 1st-round QBs were hits, and that regardless of that, teams don't take QBs in the 1st round very often.

In other words, the reason for the infrequency of 1st-round QBs drafted isn't because so many teams are "hitting" on them.

Also, the very "hitting" you're talking about -- on Dan Marino -- is partly the reason the Dolphins have selected only one QB during that time, yet we appear to be so shocked they've done that.

 

[Spesh]

Well if that's true, then perhaps we should stop being so shocked that the Dolphins have picked only one during that time.

Think the majority is less shocked about us losing games. As one of these problems leads to the other.

 

[The Confessor]

As others have said,

If you "hit" on a first round QB. Chances are your set for the next 8-12 years.

And, if you don't, your the Lions or Bears wasting first round picks on guys that are in and out of the league with no success at all!