Teams Rarely Draft QBs in the 1st Round?

[J. David Wannyheimer]

A better way to look at this: How many first round QBs have been drafted since 1983? 100? Or close to it?

How many have WE taken? Zero.

 

[tylerdolphin]

Well if that's true, then perhaps we should stop being so shocked that the Dolphins have picked only one during that time.

You do realize that teams with QBs dont pick QBs in the 1st, right? And you realize comparing us to a team like the Packers in that regard is beyond ridiculous, right? Basically, you grand point is that since other teams have QBs and dont draft new ones every year, we shouldnt be mad that we have not taken a shot at one in the first in like 28 years. Good point.

 

[MRojas4]

Well, hate to bring this up. BUT!

We all must keep in mind the "theory" of the system QB.

Unforchanetly, since we have been going thru HC and OC like hot cakes, we dont really have a "system" set up. And fiding the QB to "fit" your system takes presidence over a first round QB.

Nevermind the idea of developing a QB.....now thats a stupid idea right?

 

[Shouright]

A better way to look at this: How many first round QBs have been drafted since 1983? 100? Or close to it?

How many have WE taken? Zero.

That's actually a much worse way of looking at it in my opinion.

 

[J. David Wannyheimer]

How many other teams desperately needed a QB for twelve straight years and didn't take one in the first round?

You got any stats for THAT?

 

[Shouright]

You do realize that teams with QBs dont pick QBs in the 1st, right? And you realize comparing us to a team like the Packers in that regard is beyond ridiculous, right? Basically, you grand point is that since other teams have QBs and dont draft new ones every year, we shouldnt be mad that we have not taken a shot at one in the first in like 28 years. Good point.

I think before you get sarcastic (as a mod, no less -- wonderful leadership by example on your part...) you probably ought to take a deeper look at the data and see if your point is supported.

 

[The Confessor]

Well, hate to bring this up. BUT!

We all must keep in mind the "theory" of the system QB.

Unforchanetly, since we have been going thru HC and OC like hot cakes, we dont really have a "system" set up. And fiding the QB to "fit" your system takes presidence over a first round QB.

Nevermind the idea of developing a QB.....now thats a stupid idea right?

There is MUCH truth in this.

Tough to find the QB to fit your system, if you don't have a system to begin with!

 

[J. David Wannyheimer]

I think before you get sarcastic (as a mod, no less -- wonderful leadership by example on your part...) you probably ought to take a deeper look at the data and see if your point is supported.

You're joking, right? You didn't even run any basic statistical analysis on the data. Z test to see if Miami has an unusually low number here? No. Did you account for which teams drafted a low number of quarterbacks because they had good play at the position and didn't need to? No.

 

[tylerdolphin]

I think before you get sarcastic (as a mod, no less -- wonderful leadership by example on your part...) you probably ought to take a deeper look at the data and see if your point is supported.

I dont see anything wrong with my post. I just dont see your point, and most others dont either.

1. Is QB important? I assume you would agree the answer is yes.

2. What is the best way to get a franchise QB? The answer is the first round of the draft. Yea, you have outliers, but they are spread out over 6 other rounds, plus UDFA. Your odds are much better in the first. And its hard to trade for or sign a franchise QB because they are very rarely let go.

3. If you have a glaring problem, should you fix it? Again Im going to assume you would agree that the answer is yes. So logic dictates that instead of twidling our thumbs for 10 years, we should have probably taken at least one shot at a QB in the first. Most teams that lack a QB make it a priority to address the position. We dont.

Bottom line, most teams only draft a few 1st round QBs because if you have one, you dont need to use more picks on that position. Thats common sense man. No offense, but your data is garbage. It proves nothing other than the fact that everyone doesnt draft a new QB every year.

 

[J. David Wannyheimer]

In fact if we do even basic, high school level statistical analysis on the numbers for 1984-2010 (i.e. AFTER Miami selected Marino), with the null hypothesis that Miami's first round quarterback selection since that time has been within the league norm, we get a p value of 3.36E-31.

In short, you'd have to be smoking crack to think that Miami's been anywhere close the league average of drafting a QB in the first round.

 

[phishxhead]

Well, hate to bring this up. BUT!

We all must keep in mind the "theory" of the system QB.

Unforchanetly, since we have been going thru HC and OC like hot cakes, we dont really have a "system" set up. And fiding the QB to "fit" your system takes presidence over a first round QB.

Nevermind the idea of developing a QB.....now thats a stupid idea right?

Well hate to bring this up, but maybe if JJ+Wanny, Saben or The 3 Stooges actually successfully addressed the QB position they wouldn't have all been failures. All of them we given a chance with their 'systems'.

---------- Post added at 05:01 PM ---------- Previous post was at 05:00 PM ----------

There is MUCH truth in this.

Tough to find the QB to fit your system, if you don't have a system to begin with!

If your system doesn't value the QB position it is going to fail.

 

[Shouright]

You're joking, right? You didn't even run any basic statistical analysis on the data. Z test to see if Miami has an unusually low number here? No. Did you account for which teams drafted a low number of quarterbacks because they had good play at the position and didn't need to? No.

If that's what you're interested in, feel free to make your own contribution to the thread.

 

[Shouright]

I dont see anything wrong with my post. I just dont see your point, and most others dont either.

1. Is QB important? I assume you would agree the answer is yes.

2. What is the best way to get a franchise QB? The answer is the first round of the draft. Yea, you have outliers, but they are spread out over 6 other rounds, plus UDFA. Your odds are much better in the first. And its hard to trade for or sign a franchise QB because they are very rarely let go.

3. If you have a glaring problem, should you fix it? Again Im going to assume you would agree that the answer is yes. So logic dictates that instead of twidling our thumbs for 10 years, we should have probably taken at least one shot at a QB in the first. Most teams that lack a QB make it a priority to address the position. We dont.

Bottom line, most teams only draft a few 1st round QBs because if you have one, you dont need to use more picks on that position. Thats common sense man. No offense, but your data is garbage. It proves nothing other than the fact that everyone doesnt draft a new QB every year.

I've said nothing here about whether a team should try to get a quality quarterback by drafting one in the 1st round. That's your take on things, not mine.

The point is that teams don't tend to do it very often.

 

[Shouright]

In fact if we do even basic, high school level statistical analysis on the numbers for 1984-2010 (i.e. AFTER Miami selected Marino), with the null hypothesis that Miami's first round quarterback selection since that time has been within the league norm, we get a p value of 3.36E-31.

In short, you'd have to be smoking crack to think that Miami's been anywhere close the league average of drafting a QB in the first round.

And by the way, if you're going to do a test like this on a non-normal distribution, you need to use non-parametric statistics.

Any distribution of data whose mean is this close to its floor is going to be non-normal and positively skewed.

Go back to the drawing board.

 

[Kinzua]

Since we took Marino, we haven't taken one in first round since 83.. hope you understand that.

Neither have a number of teams, including Pittsburgh, GB, the Giants, all Super Bowl winners.

Moreover, Marino played into the late 1990s, so Miami wouldn't have been looking for a replacement until about then. Contrary to public belief, most teams that have a top QB don't go out and draft a QB in the first round "to groom" until the very end. Partly that's because if their QB is good, they aren't drafting in the Top Ten, and partly because they don't want to be paying big $$$ to some kid to sit on the bench -- and that was true even before the salary cap.

Teams that are drafting first round QBs frequently are generally do so because they're missing on the ones they do draft.