so put a value on it...off of what you know what round value would you put on his physical talent??? i would say as a conversion prospect best case you're talking 5th round here...best case...so why would i when you admittedly say he;s not an nfl qb prospect give a late round pick value guy $6.3 mil guaranteed in trade??? his value doesn't justify it...5th round picks are playing for probably somewhere in the $400-500 k range with little guarantees...you're gonna guarantee 10-12 times that???
I think Philip Merling plus perhaps a sixth or seventh rounder is good value. We've already paid Merling's bonus this year (though it was only more than a million or so), so there's a bit of even/steven when it comes to having paid the two guys their bonuses.
As for the money thing, keep in mind that from the Broncos' perspective, they're
also on the hook for that guaranteed money. They don't want to be paying it to their third or fourth string QB who's never going to play. But... their roster spots are already filled at TE and FB, and beyond that there's also the "Tebow thing" that might stop them from making the conversion. Meanwhile, thanks to a some injuries, they're thin on the defensive line.
The money is a downside, I agree with that. But other than money, I don't think you're giving up a lot in resources. Merling is on his way out the door anyway and he's one of the few defensive linemen who is going to be out there who is young and has starting experience. Any team who needs a defensive linemen is at least going to be interested, though the FH talk of getting a third or something like that for him is and always has been ridiculous.
They key -- other than Tebow himself being on board -- is Charles Clay. In theory he and Tebow share some of the same possibilities and attributes. But... Clay was also a sixth round pick, and not for nothing. If you're the Dolphins and you see real potential there, something legitimate to build on, then I think Tebow loses a lot of his value. I'm not sure the goal line prowess alone is worth it, especially when Polite has shown himself to be such a good short yardage player. But if Clay is like most sixth round picks -- meaning he's not very good -- then a guy like Tebow becomes a lot more interesting.
Conversion projects are always a shot in the dark. For every Antwaan Randle-el there's a bunch of Matt Jones'. Thanks to their natural physical ability and the arrogance of coaches and personnel people who think they can turn any athlete into a football player, they're always over valued and you always end up over paying. But... if I have to choose between giving up a relatively high pick (like the first rounder the Jags spent on Jones), or over paying, then I'm choosing the latter. The money doesn't have nearly the opportunity cost. If it doesn't work out, the guy has a high enough character and name recognition that someone is probably going to want to trade for him next year, too. I don't think we'll necessarily be on the hook for the whole $6 million no matter what.
