The AFC is Gonna Be Tough | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

The AFC is Gonna Be Tough

Mike McDaniel

Mike McDaniel

Active Roster
Joined
Oct 19, 2004
Messages
1,262
Reaction score
3,874
Location
Tampa FL
As we saw in 2021, the AFC is a brutal conference with the regular season's "best" team, the Tennessee Titans, looking like one of the weakest #1 seeds in a long time. But were they really that weak, or did they just by chance get the #1 seed because...well...somebody has to get it.

Looking forward to 2022, it's looking like it might be even more of a dogfight. If we break down each team right now, it doesn't look like there will be many teams getting markedly worse, barring drastic free agency losses, injuries, etc. It's probably too early to examine this but it's February, who cares :)

AFC EAST
Buffalo Bills - I don't think anyone expects Josh Allen to regress anytime soon, and the defense was 1st in the league last year
New England Patriots - Was Mac Jones a fluke? Maybe...but I expect Belichick to push him to be better. Oh yeah, and their defense was ranked 2nd in the league
Miami Dolphins - I think pretty much everyone here thinks the team will be better on offense. But what about defense?
New York Jets - Zach Wilson can only play better in his 2nd year with the coaching staff. They have a lot of cap space, too

AFC WEST
Kansas City Chiefs - Eventually the window will start closing for this phase of the Mahomes Era, but it doesn't look to be anytime soon
Oakland Raiders - Josh McDaniels has potential to push this team over the edge--either in a positive or negative way
Los Angeles Chargers - They have a lot of cap space and a superstar QB on a rookie contract. I imagine every pundit this offseason will be choosing the Chargers as their "dark horse" pick to win the conference. We nabbed one of their best coaches though...how will that affect things?
Denver Broncos - If they add Aaron Rodgers, there's a guaranteed playoff spot. If they don't, they could go any direction

AFC NORTH
Cincinnati Bengals - Cinderella story or the beginning of dominance? They need to fix that o-line if they want the latter, or Joe Burrow will be Theisman'd soon
Pittsburgh Steelers - This is the first team on the list that looks to have no immediate positive future. Who will play QB? Garoppolo maybe? Watson? Rodgers? A rookie? With Tomlin as coach, we know they will battle hard in every game no matter who is QB
Cleveland Browns - A make or break year for Baker Mayfield. He didn't look so hot in '21 but he was injured. If he does well, he gets the contract extension and the Browns likely nab a playoff spot
Baltimore Ravens - Lamar Jackson was hurt a lot. If he's healthy, the team is going to win a lot of games

AFC SOUTH
Tennessee Titans - How much longer does Derrick Henry have? Does it matter? The Titans were still a top 5 rushing team even with Henry missing more than half the games, and the defense was great. All this despite constant injuries. Vrabel will have his team playing hard no matter what
Indianapolis Colts - Despite the epic meltdown against Jacksonville, this was basically a playoff team. But, what's going on at QB? Like the Steelers, there is a very murky future here unless they nab a Rodgers/Watson/Garoppolo type
Houston Texans - Is Davis Mills going to be a consistent NFL starter? He looked very good at times last year. Hard to imagine the team getting worse...
Jacksonville Jaguars - They hired a Super Bowl winning coach and their 1st pick QB can only get better, plus tons of cap space and 12 picks in the draft

So what happens in 2022? I think like last year, it's gonna be a dogfight. No one will run away with the conference (or any division for that matter), and whoever gets into the playoffs will have as good a shot as any at getting to the Super Bowl. There were only two AFC teams who were totally annihilated in the playoffs (Patriots and Steelers) and most pundits expect neither one to make it back in 2022. Whoever makes it is going to have to be 1) well-coached, 2) lucky as hell, and 3) relatively healthy

Did I miss anything? Am I way off? Sound off!
 
Chiefs and Bills that's the 2 elite teams. Maybe the Bengals but I think they are more 2016 ATL than they are a long-term contender. The Bengals defense held the Chiefs to 24, they held the #1 seed to 16, the Raiders to 19, and the Rams to 23. With the right game plan, we have the players to make a similar run.

Everyone thinks we need a high-scoring offense but defense is still just as important, we just need an offense that can sustain drives and take advantage when the defense puts us in a good position. Shootouts are not a sustainable way to win see Marino, Dan.
 
superphin said:
Chiefs and Bills that's the 2 elite teams. Maybe the Bengals but I think they are more 2016 ATL than they are a long-term contender. The Bengals defense held the Chiefs to 24, they held the #1 seed to 16, the Raiders to 19, and the Rams to 23. With the right game plan, we have the players to make a similar run.

Everyone thinks we need a high-scoring offense but defense is still just as important, we just need an offense that can sustain drives and take advantage when the defense puts us in a good position. Shootouts are not a sustainable way to win see Marino, Dan.
Click to expand...

The goal is to score more than your opponent. Stopping a drive doesn't further that goal necessarily, scoring on a drive does.

That is why offense > defense, especially with modern NFL rules. The worst thing you can do is be in a low scoring game where rules favor the offense, you give the ball back and generally you lose.
 
GhostArmOfMarino said:
The goal is to score more than your opponent. Stopping a drive doesn't further that goal necessarily, scoring on a drive does.

That is why offense > defense, especially with modern NFL rules. The worst thing you can do is be in a low scoring game where rules favor the offense, you give the ball back and generally you lose.
Click to expand...
The goal is also to stop your opponent from scoring that's why it's a team game. If the Bills had the Bengal's defense they win vs the Chiefs. You can score all the points you want it doesn't make a difference if your defense doesn't get any stops, depending on your offense to score at 30+ points a game is not sustainable.
 
Last edited:
I was hoping someone would ask McDaniel during his series press conferences what his plan would be to overtake Buffalo and KC, because at the moment they are 1 and 2 in the conference, and the teams that, in order to beat them, it's going to take
1)monumental effort
2)lots of points
3)some kind of defense
4)some luck/good fortunate/crazy bounce of the ball
5)any other number of things
That's to me what the major hurdle is now- KC and Buffalo. Cincy is going to be competitive, I think, because they have a lot of good pieces, a dynamic QB, lost no coordinators/coaches that I know of. Tennessee will continue to be the same Tennessee as long as Tannehill is there-10-12 wins, playoff contender, but not invincible. They could break through though, and are an obstacle. A healthy Baltimore is always a tough out.
I'm not drinking the Chargers cool aid till they actually make the playoffs.
But getting by KC and Buffalo, there needs to be a plan.
 
Its a dog fight to make the playoffs.
 
GhostArmOfMarino said:
The goal is to score more than your opponent. Stopping a drive doesn't further that goal necessarily, scoring on a drive does.

That is why offense > defense, especially with modern NFL rules. The worst thing you can do is be in a low scoring game where rules favor the offense, you give the ball back and generally you lose.
Click to expand...
I would say both equally further that goal. Maybe one is now easier due to rule changes, but I don't see how one is more important than the other.
 
kastofsna said:
As we saw in 2021, the AFC is a brutal conference with the regular season's "best" team, the Tennessee Titans, looking like one of the weakest #1 seeds in a long time. But were they really that weak, or did they just by chance get the #1 seed because...well...somebody has to get it.

Looking forward to 2022, it's looking like it might be even more of a dogfight. If we break down each team right now, it doesn't look like there will be many teams getting markedly worse, barring drastic free agency losses, injuries, etc. It's probably too early to examine this but it's February, who cares :)

AFC EAST
Buffalo Bills - I don't think anyone expects Josh Allen to regress anytime soon, and the defense was 1st in the league last year
New England Patriots - Was Mac Jones a fluke? Maybe...but I expect Belichick to push him to be better. Oh yeah, and their defense was ranked 2nd in the league
Miami Dolphins - I think pretty much everyone here thinks the team will be better on offense. But what about defense?
New York Jets - Zach Wilson can only play better in his 2nd year with the coaching staff. They have a lot of cap space, too

AFC WEST
Kansas City Chiefs - Eventually the window will start closing for this phase of the Mahomes Era, but it doesn't look to be anytime soon
Oakland Raiders - Josh McDaniels has potential to push this team over the edge--either in a positive or negative way
Los Angeles Chargers - They have a lot of cap space and a superstar QB on a rookie contract. I imagine every pundit this offseason will be choosing the Chargers as their "dark horse" pick to win the conference. We nabbed one of their best coaches though...how will that affect things?
Denver Broncos - If they add Aaron Rodgers, there's a guaranteed playoff spot. If they don't, they could go any direction

AFC NORTH
Cincinnati Bengals - Cinderella story or the beginning of dominance? They need to fix that o-line if they want the latter, or Joe Burrow will be Theisman'd soon
Pittsburgh Steelers - This is the first team on the list that looks to have no immediate positive future. Who will play QB? Garoppolo maybe? Watson? Rodgers? A rookie? With Tomlin as coach, we know they will battle hard in every game no matter who is QB
Cleveland Browns - A make or break year for Baker Mayfield. He didn't look so hot in '21 but he was injured. If he does well, he gets the contract extension and the Browns likely nab a playoff spot
Baltimore Ravens - Lamar Jackson was hurt a lot. If he's healthy, the team is going to win a lot of games

AFC SOUTH
Tennessee Titans - How much longer does Derrick Henry have? Does it matter? The Titans were still a top 5 rushing team even with Henry missing more than half the games, and the defense was great. All this despite constant injuries. Vrabel will have his team playing hard no matter what
Indianapolis Colts - Despite the epic meltdown against Jacksonville, this was basically a playoff team. But, what's going on at QB? Like the Steelers, there is a very murky future here unless they nab a Rodgers/Watson/Garoppolo type
Houston Texans - Is Davis Mills going to be a consistent NFL starter? He looked very good at times last year. Hard to imagine the team getting worse...
Jacksonville Jaguars - They hired a Super Bowl winning coach and their 1st pick QB can only get better, plus tons of cap space and 12 picks in the draft

So what happens in 2022? I think like last year, it's gonna be a dogfight. No one will run away with the conference (or any division for that matter), and whoever gets into the playoffs will have as good a shot as any at getting to the Super Bowl. There were only two AFC teams who were totally annihilated in the playoffs (Patriots and Steelers) and most pundits expect neither one to make it back in 2022. Whoever makes it is going to have to be 1) well-coached, 2) lucky as hell, and 3) relatively healthy

Did I miss anything? Am I way off? Sound off!
Click to expand...
Maybe for the other 15 teams. With our moves so far and McDaniel as HC, we'll shred through them like wet tissue paper.
 
Bopkin02 said:
I was hoping someone would ask McDaniel during his series press conferences what his plan would be to overtake Buffalo and KC, because at the moment they are 1 and 2 in the conference, and the teams that, in order to beat them, it's going to take
1)monumental effort
2)lots of points
3)some kind of defense
4)some luck/good fortunate/crazy bounce of the ball
5)any other number of things
That's to me what the major hurdle is now- KC and Buffalo. Cincy is going to be competitive, I think, because they have a lot of good pieces, a dynamic QB, lost no coordinators/coaches that I know of. Tennessee will continue to be the same Tennessee as long as Tannehill is there-10-12 wins, playoff contender, but not invincible. They could break through though, and are an obstacle. A healthy Baltimore is always a tough out.
I'm not drinking the Chargers cool aid till they actually make the playoffs.
But getting by KC and Buffalo, there needs to be a plan.
Click to expand...
You hit on a very valid point. The AFC doesn’t matter unless we can unseat Buffalo. All roads lead to the Bills and Miami gaining a foothold on the division. Right now we are at a severe deficit to them and until we close this gap it just doesn’t matter what the rest of AFC is doing.
 
Every year things either feel tough or easy before the season starts. But every year there are surprises, injuries, collapses, poor decisions, etc. Play well and hopefully we get in the playoffs this year. Good coaching should keep us from starting 1-7, and that by itself should drastically improve our chances.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom