The argument against trading up in the draft: Surprisingly insightful article from ESPN

[Atila]

This stat in the first section alone was enough gold but the rest of the article has other nice concepts.

The value of trading down -- and not trading up -- has been an enduring refrain of analytics disciples ever since economists Cade Massey and Richard Thaler wrote their original paper on overconfidence and market efficiency (or lack thereof) in the NFL draft more than 15 years ago. In that analysis the economists found, for example, that the probability a first-round player starts more games than the next-selected player at his position is just 58% -- and only 53% across the entire draft. Still, even as other quantitative analysis conclusions have achieved major NFL buy-in -- from fourth-down attempts to pass-first philosophies to the value of running backs -- GMs continue to pay expensive prices to land specific prospects they covet in the draft.

GMs love to trade up in the NFL draft, but it's often a mistake: Why their reasoning doesn't match reality

NFL general managers often pat themselves on the back for draft trade-ups, and they use similar quotes to do it. But they're usually wrong.

www.espn.com

 

[MARINO1384]

Yeah would like to trade back however Grier has been pretty money in the 1st
2016:Tunsil
2017: Charles Harris
2018: minkah
2019 wilkins
2020: Tua/Jackson/Iggy
2021: Philips/ waddle

Obviously Harris and Iggy were bust but 7 out of 9 is pretty damn good and yeah I know Tunsil and minkah went on to play for other teams on rookie deals but still he drafted them. Just about all those guys aren’t just starters but pro bowl/all pro level players. 77% hit rate in first round.

 

[BahamaFinFan78]

Yeah would like to trade back however Grier has been pretty money in the 1st
2016:Tunsil
2017: Charles Harris
2018: minkah
2019 wilkins
2020: Tua/Jackson/Iggy
2021: Philips/ waddle

Obviously Harris and Iggy were bust but 7 out of 9 is pretty damn good and yeah I know Tunsil and minkah went on to play for other teams on rookie deals but still he drafted them. Just about all those guys aren’t just starters but pro bowl/all pro level players. 77% hit rate in first round.

What hurts is who he could have had and not so much hindsight either as during the day of the draft, fans on here were clamoring for other people
2017: TJ Watt
2018: Lamar Jackson
2019: Deebo Samuel or AJ Brown
2020: Obviously Herbert or Hurts, but I won't go there. Otherwise-Justin Jefferson, Tee Higgins, Jonathan Taylor
2021: Many options here. Could have stayed at 3 and got Chase, could have picked Sewell or Surtain, could have stayed at 12 and taken Parsons
2022: We traded that pick away when we didn't need to
2023: Brian Flores f@cked u$

 

[fansinceGWilson]

What hurts is who he could have had and not so much hindsight either as during the day of the draft, fans on here were clamoring for other people
2017: TJ Watt
2018: Lamar Jackson
2019: Deebo Samuel or AJ Brown
2020: Obviously Herbert or Hurts, but I won't go there. Otherwise-Justin Jefferson, Tee Higgins, Jonathan Taylor
2021: Many options here. Could have stayed at 3 and got Chase, could have picked Sewell or Surtain, could have stayed at 12 and taken Parsons
2022: We traded that pick away when we didn't need to
2023: Brian Flores f@cked u$

While that is true, most (all?) teams miss on their R1 choices over time which is an automatic 'could have had.' That's not a defense of Miami. You are right. Even when Miami 'won,' there were better players available. Every team with an average or worse QB passed on LJ. Again, that's not unique to Miami.
What you seem to be saying is 'better' players were available without moving up. I agree with that. Stay at #21 or move down

 

[Stoobz]

I think this is the second article(s) I've read about the pitfalls of trading up.

Being that I am a huge advocate of trading down and have vocalized it on more than a few occasions, I wish Grier&Co. would get the drift.

Take Eichenberg, for example...

Please.

 

[Rayj2384]

Yeah would like to trade back however Grier has been pretty money in the 1st
2016:Tunsil
2017: Charles Harris
2018: minkah
2019 wilkins
2020: Tua/Jackson/Iggy
2021: Philips/ waddle

Obviously Harris and Iggy were bust but 7 out of 9 is pretty damn good and yeah I know Tunsil and minkah went on to play for other teams on rookie deals but still he drafted them. Just about all those guys aren’t just starters but pro bowl/all pro level players. 77% hit rate in first round.

Would've been nice if he took TJ Watt over Harris in 17

 

[BROGS]

Coulda..shoulda..woulda...not much point in looking at the past. Its history.

 

[ThePeopleShow13]

I think you could make an argument for either side depending on the players available. For example; what would it have cost to trade up for Wirfs in 2020? We could have given up picks 18 and 26 and still come out with an All-Pro player better than what we got. Likewise, in 2021 we could have stayed at our 2nd round pick and taken Humphrey over Eichenberg. This year it makes sense to trade down since we don’t have a lot of picks. I think the “best” option is situational and depends on the team.

 

[The Ghost]

Would've been nice if he took TJ Watt over Harris in 17

Which in turn would’ve made it harder to draft a QB.

 

[Stoobz]

The thing about ignoring history...

 

[Jssanto]

What hurts is who he could have had and not so much hindsight either as during the day of the draft, fans on here were clamoring for other people
2017: TJ Watt
2018: Lamar Jackson
2019: Deebo Samuel or AJ Brown
2020: Obviously Herbert or Hurts, but I won't go there. Otherwise-Justin Jefferson, Tee Higgins, Jonathan Taylor
2021: Many options here. Could have stayed at 3 and got Chase, could have picked Sewell or Surtain, could have stayed at 12 and taken Parsons
2022: We traded that pick away when we didn't need to
2023: Brian Flores f@cked u$

Want Dion Jordan in there somewhere?

 

[Mach2]

Which in turn would’ve made it harder to draft a QB.

That's the issue with alternative historical timelines on any subject in general. It easy to say "what if" in the vacuum of the moment, but no one can predict the future falling dominoes with any provable accuracy. It is an exorcize in futility.

The swing of a couple decisions can greatly alter the the future in ways that are impossible to predict.

What if Krustev didn't blink before Kennedy during the Cuban missle crises?

What if Kennedy didn't blink during the Bay of Pigs fiasco?

What if my ex wasn't a collosal pain in the a$$?

Things to ponder........

 

[Mello Yello]

Yeah would like to trade back however Grier has been pretty money in the 1st
2016:Tunsil
2017: Charles Harris
2018: minkah
2019 wilkins
2020: Tua/Jackson/Iggy
2021: Philips/ waddle

Obviously Harris and Iggy were bust but 7 out of 9 is pretty damn good and yeah I know Tunsil and minkah went on to play for other teams on rookie deals but still he drafted them. Just about all those guys aren’t just starters but pro bowl/all pro level players. 77% hit rate in first round.

#1
The only hit that surprised anyone was probably Jaelen Phillips in 2021. Few saw him coming. It's hard to count Laremy Tunsil considering he fell in our lap. I certainly give Grier a lot of credit for being opportunistic. It was a huge win for Miami but also very flukey. Not only was it almost a decade ago, but it's generally not something that should be used to evaluate a GM's drafting tendencies IMHO.

Another place Grier was opportunistic was with Waddle. Had we sat at #3 we could've had any number of great players but by trading back (and then up again) we ended up with Waddle & an extra R1 pick. Most would take that over a single top prospect. Plus, Waddle was a good fit long-term with McDaniel's offense (which was basically luck).

#2
What bothers me (a little) is that the other "hits" were all players that we knew days/weeks in advance Miami would be safe picking: Minkah, Wilkins, Tua. We knew they would be available. Everyone was mocking those guys to us. Rarely are picks that predictable but those drafts were almost boring. We picked the experienced players from top schools. TBH, all were solid but as of yet none have been great. Minkah may be that rangy FS in Pittsburgh. We'll see.

#3
What I like is that over the last few years we've stabilized into a pattern of either trading down to acquire assets or simply taking solid players. We've taken few big swings but we've come to expect a "win" in R1 and that's a good sign.

 

[Atila]

#1
The only hit that surprised anyone was probably Jaelen Phillips in 2021. Few saw him coming. It's hard to count Laremy Tunsil considering he fell in our lap. I certainly give Grier a lot of credit for being opportunistic. It was a huge win for Miami but also very flukey. Not only was it almost a decade ago, but it's generally not something that should be used to evaluate a GM's drafting tendencies IMHO.

Another place Grier was opportunistic was with Waddle. Had we sat at #3 we could've had any number of great players but by trading back (and then up again) we ended up with Waddle & an extra R1 pick. Most would take that over a single top prospect. Plus, Waddle was a good fit long-term with McDaniel's offense (which was basically luck).

#2
What bothers me (a little) is that the other "hits" were all players that we knew days/weeks in advance Miami would be safe picking: Minkah, Wilkins, Tua. We knew they would be available. Everyone was mocking those guys to us. Rarely are picks that predictable but those drafts were almost boring. We picked the experienced players from top schools. TBH, all were solid but as of yet none have been great. Minkah may be that rangy FS in Pittsburgh. We'll see.

#3
What I like is that over the last few years we've stabilized into a pattern of either trading down to acquire assets or simply taking solid players. We've taken few big swings but we've come to expect a "win" in R1 and that's a good sign.

The trade back up for Waddle was actually mentioned in that article as an overpay (and was used in the context of what a horrible move it was by the Bills to trade up for Sammy Watkins).

The few times we’ve traded up in recent years have not been great. I like Waddle, but it’s been argued legitimately that moving back to 6 for him was an overpayment all things considered.

 

[Atila]

Yeah would like to trade back however Grier has been pretty money in the 1st
2016:Tunsil
2017: Charles Harris
2018: minkah
2019 wilkins
2020: Tua/Jackson/Iggy
2021: Philips/ waddle

Obviously Harris and Iggy were bust but 7 out of 9 is pretty damn good and yeah I know Tunsil and minkah went on to play for other teams on rookie deals but still he drafted them. Just about all those guys aren’t just starters but pro bowl/all pro level players. 77% hit rate in first round.

I actually don’t necessarily want us to trade back - I just thought the article had a lot of valuable information that really put things into perspective - people are typically overconfident and the facts bare this out as well… especially in regards to trading up.