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The Bennehill Show Part 2: Smoke And Mirrors

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skillkills

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Since the end of the 2016 season, due to his 8 game stretch with a plus 100 rating average , we were led to believe Tannehill had finally arrived. After reaching mythical status, our doubts had to be cast aside, belief in him unquestioned, contingency plans dismissed and so on. Only the offensive line had to be fixed for him to go hit the ground running after injury to once again regain his spot.

Below is a list of QBs since 2016 who had achieved a 100 plus rating during an 8 game stretch. What I hope this list provides is a better context as to where he belongs.


Rating YPG TD:INT YR
Ryan 119.9 331 21:4 2016
Smith 115.4 272 16:0 2017
Brady 112.8 318 19:2 2017
Rodgers 112.9 299 20:2 2016
Prescott 111.4 232 14:2 2016
Wentz 110.6 230 23:3 2017
Goff 109.4 261 19:3 2017
Cousins 106.4 297 15:4 2017
Rivers 105.4 281 14:2 2017
Brees 105 277 13:4 2017
Stafford 105 279 15:6 2017
Keenum 104.8 254 16:5 2017
Dalton 103.2 220 16:4 2017
Roethlisberger 102 313 19:6 2017
Mariota 101.7 228 14:3 2016
Winston 101.7 259 15:4 2016
Carr 100.9 290 17:3 2016
Luck 100.5 274 17:6 2016
Wilson 100.2 306 20:7 2017
Tannehill 100.1 215 13:5 2016


Conclusion:
  • Tannehill is the 20th most elitest QB in the NFL.
  • Lowest YPG on the list which tells me the offense had a hard time moving.
  • Not included is Newton who's a different type of QB, Watson (103 rating but in only 7 games before injury), Garropolo, and Mayfield who could both reach the mark very easily. Rosen was polished coming out so he could be another to reach the mark soon while it may take Darnold and Allen a couple more years because of their propensity to throw picks.
  • Whereas it took Tannehill 5 years to reach the mark, in 2011, in his first year as a Dolphin, Matt Moore had a 103.7 rating, 207 YPG, and a 14:3 ratio in an 8 game stretch. Even more impressive is he could've done more. There were times in that season with Moore as QB that they stopped trying to score as the lead was too great. There were also times where Moore was responsible more touchdowns but they didn't show up in the stat sheet and that had to do with a balanced attack in the redzone which is in contrast to the current team's plan of attack in the redzone that puts the ball in Tannehill's hands the majority of the time, thus inflating his numbers.
As an aside, I became a fan in 96 or 97 during Marino's twilight and I never saw the offense move like it did with Moore at the helm. He led the most explosive offense the team has had since I've been a fan. (I also checked Marino's numbers and they weren't good.) I'm not advocating for his return as he can no longer take a beating beyond 2 games. Just saying all this to provide a better perspective of where Tannehill is, that even at his best there are many who are clearly better.
 
Agree 99.9% we have to find a replacement for RT if we ever want to get better. 8 or 9 win seasons get us nowhere. Just more angry fans and people jumping ship.
 
skillkills said:
Since the end of the 2016 season, due to his 8 game stretch with a plus 100 rating average , we were led to believe Tannehill had finally arrived. After reaching mythical status, our doubts had to be cast aside, belief in him unquestioned, contingency plans dismissed and so on. Only the offensive line had to be fixed for him to go hit the ground running after injury to once again regain his spot.

Below is a list of QBs since 2016 who had achieved a 100 plus rating during an 8 game stretch. What I hope this list provides is a better context as to where he belongs.


Rating YPG TD:INT YR
Ryan 119.9 331 21:4 2016
Smith 115.4 272 16:0 2017
Brady 112.8 318 19:2 2017
Rodgers 112.9 299 20:2 2016
Prescott 111.4 232 14:2 2016
Wentz 110.6 230 23:3 2017
Goff 109.4 261 19:3 2017
Cousins 106.4 297 15:4 2017
Rivers 105.4 281 14:2 2017
Brees 105 277 13:4 2017
Stafford 105 279 15:6 2017
Keenum 104.8 254 16:5 2017
Dalton 103.2 220 16:4 2017
Roethlisberger 102 313 19:6 2017
Mariota 101.7 228 14:3 2016
Winston 101.7 259 15:4 2016
Carr 100.9 290 17:3 2016
Luck 100.5 274 17:6 2016
Wilson 100.2 306 20:7 2017
Tannehill 100.1 215 13:5 2016


Conclusion:
  • Tannehill is the 20th most elitest QB in the NFL.
  • Lowest YPG on the list which tells me the offense had a hard time moving.
  • Not included is Newton who's a different type of QB, Watson (103 rating but in only 7 games before injury), Garropolo, and Mayfield who could both reach the mark very easily. Rosen was polished coming out so he could be another to reach the mark soon while it may take Darnold and Allen a couple more years because of their propensity to throw picks.
  • Whereas it took Tannehill 5 years to reach the mark, in 2011, in his first year as a Dolphin, Matt Moore had a 103.7 rating, 207 YPG, and a 14:3 ratio in an 8 game stretch. Even more impressive is he could've done more. There were times in that season with Moore as QB that they stopped trying to score as the lead was too great. There were also times where Moore was responsible more touchdowns but they didn't show up in the stat sheet and that had to do with a balanced attack in the redzone which is in contrast to the current team's plan of attack in the redzone that puts the ball in Tannehill's hands the majority of the time, thus inflating his numbers.
As an aside, I became a fan in 96 or 97 during Marino's twilight and I never saw the offense move like it did with Moore at the helm. He led the most explosive offense the team has had since I've been a fan. (I also checked Marino's numbers and they weren't good.) I'm not advocating for his return as he can no longer take a beating beyond 2 games. Just saying all this to provide a better perspective of where Tannehill is, that even at his best there are many who are clearly better.
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Wait, how is what you posted supposed to make your point? It makes just the opposite. During that stretch, he outperformed Brady, Rodgers, Brees, Roethlisberger, Rivers, etc. That is a great stretch. Of the other non-elite QB’s on the same list, which is not a starter still today? Answer=Zero. Every one of those players has retained a starting job since, and rightfully so.

If your argument is that Matt Moore is superior, I think you are delusional. Moore may be exciting to watch at times, but in the end, he is careless with the football when it matters the most. You need only review the wildcard playoff appearance in 2016 for proof.
 
eggman1 said:
Should have been drafting a QB for the past 3 yrs to push him and if needed replacing him. How are QB guru coach couldn’t see this is just mind boggling.
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Miami would rather draft wannabe pass rushers to groom.
 
volk said:
Wait, how is what you posted supposed to make your point? It makes just the opposite. During that stretch, he outperformed Brady, Rodgers, Brees, Roethlisberger, Rivers, etc. That is a great stretch. Of the other non-elite QB’s on the same list, which is not a starter still today? Answer=Zero. Every one of those players has retained a starting job since, and rightfully so.

If your argument is that Matt Moore is superior, I think you are delusional. Moore may be exciting to watch at times, but in the end, he is careless with the football when it matters the most. You need only review the wildcard playoff appearance in 2016 for proof.
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No his point is if you take an 8 game stretch to pedestal QBs, he falls into line at the average/below average mark.

He may have outperformed those guys during HIS stretch, but HIS stretch versus THEIR stretch still leaves him coming up short.

Just want to clarify what I think the point is and numbers show.
 
russianbear said:
No his point is if you take an 8 game stretch to pedestal QBs, he falls into line at the average/below average mark.

He may have outperformed those guys during HIS stretch, but HIS stretch versus THEIR stretch still leaves him coming up short.

Just want to clarify what I think the point is and numbers show.
Click to expand...

This! People like to cherry pick information. They really don’t like an apples to apples comparison.
 
russianbear said:
No his point is if you take an 8 game stretch to pedestal QBs, he falls into line at the average/below average mark.

He may have outperformed those guys during HIS stretch, but HIS stretch versus THEIR stretch still leaves him coming up short.

Just want to clarify what I think the point is and numbers show.
Click to expand...

So what new information is here? There were 8 QB’s who had 8 game winning streaks the same year. Of those QB’s that season, he was last on the list statistically. So what does that mean? Of the QB’s being the most productive for their team and guiding them to 8 straight wins, he was in 8th place? If I remember correctly, didn’t RT get hurt during this streak? What if he won two more games? What if he won the wildcard game? Of the QB’s on the list, how many ended their streak due to injury?

These stats are meaningless without full context of each QB, competition level and what ended the streaks.
 
volk said:
So what new information is here? There were 8 QB’s who had 8 game winning streaks the same year. Of those QB’s that season, he was last on the list statistically. So what does that mean? Of the QB’s being the most productive for their team and guiding them to 8 straight wins, he was in 8th place? If I remember correctly, didn’t RT get hurt during this streak? What if he won two more games? What if he won the wildcard game? Of the QB’s on the list, how many ended their streak due to injury?

These stats are meaningless without full context of each QB, competition level and what ended the streaks.
Click to expand...

I disagree. Take the numbers with a grain of salt but they aren't meaningless. I'm not sure if you want to argue about Tannehill or the figures the OP produced but I'm not particularly interested in doing either. You can re-read my post or the OP if you're still not getting the point, which is tangible.

If Tannehill had not gotten injured and won the Wildcard game this thread probably wouldn't exist, but he didn't. Ifs are fun though.
 
russianbear said:
I disagree. Take the numbers with a grain of salt but they aren't meaningless. I'm not sure if you want to argue about Tannehill or the figures the OP produced but I'm not particularly interested in doing either. You can re-read my post or the OP if you're still not getting the point, which is tangible.

If Tannehill had not gotten injured and won the Wildcard game this thread probably wouldn't exist, but he didn't. Ifs are fun though.
Click to expand...

That’s my whole point. It’s a bunch of ifs. If RT had Matt Ryan’s numbers over that stretch, we would have won better? What more do you need from your QB than long stretches of wins? For these numbers to have any relevance, how about adding number of attempts, number of runs, down and distance, was the team trailing or leading, how many QB pressures were there, etc? Without context, the numbers put RT as the eight best win streak quarterback in 2016, a number any NFL fan would be happy with. Dolphins fans are not happy, though, because Tannehill didn’t put up Mat Ryan’s numbers over that stretch. BTW, how did Ryan look in the second half of that SB, again? Of course, why get in depth and create a full picture of what happened over those streaks when we can take the absolute bare minimum of data and use it to discredit a QB over 8 consecutive wins. It’s absolutely pathetic.

I wonder if Ravens fans complained as much about the SB win they had with Dilfer?
 
volk said:
That’s my whole point. It’s a bunch of ifs. If RT had Matt Ryan’s numbers over that stretch, we would have won better? What more do you need from your QB than long stretches of wins? For these numbers to have any relevance, how about adding number of attempts, number of runs, down and distance, was the team trailing or leading, how many QB pressures were there, etc? Without context, the numbers put RT as the eight best win streak quarterback in 2016, a number any NFL fan would be happy with. Dolphins fans are not happy, though, because Tannehill didn’t put up Mat Ryan’s numbers over that stretch. BTW, how did Ryan look in the second half of that SB, again? Of course, why get in depth and create a full picture of what happened over those streaks when we can take the absolute bare minimum of data and use it to discredit a QB over 8 consecutive wins. It’s absolutely pathetic.

I wonder if Ravens fans complained as much about the SB win they had with Dilfer?
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You impressively missed the point then brought it home with that windmill jam of a last sentence. Well done.
 
BobDole said:
You impressively missed the point then brought it home with that windmill jam of a last sentence. Well done.
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Ok, let’s get real with it. Would you have traded some of Marino’s legendary stats for multiple super bowl wins?
 
volk said:
Ok, let’s get real with it. Would you have traded some of Marino’s legendary stats for multiple super bowl wins?
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Getting real with it would be saying his 'legendary' 8 game stretch where the light finally came on wasn't so amazing when doing an apples to apples comparison.

Of course I'd trade his stats for hardware but we both know that's beside the point.
 
volk said:
Wait, how is what you posted supposed to make your point? It makes just the opposite.
Click to expand...
It's simple, bud. You're confusing what is otherwise a straightforward argument.

volk said:
For these numbers to have any relevance, how about adding number of attempts, number of runs, down and distance, was the team trailing or leading, how many QB pressures were there, etc? Without context, the numbers put RT as the eight best win streak quarterback in 2016, a number any NFL fan would be happy with.
Click to expand...
I'm giving out free sandwiches to everybody and you're demanding a full course meal for context?
 
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