"The Deep Ball" | Page 2 | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

"The Deep Ball"

Hostile 17 said:
Every single post in this thread has been thoughtful, with clear-headed observations regarding the play this preseason. So far, this is my nomination for Thread of the Fall 2005.

My only question: is anyone on our coaching staff listening? Or do we have another situation like last year, where the QB 'competition' is a thinly-veiled charade? Are we still playing favorites (ie. the veteran who 'knows the system') instead of the one with a better arm and real potential that we may finally get a chance to see?
Click to expand...

Sadly, I think we are. I really expected more from Saban, though he still has time to clean things up before the season starts.
 
Sirspud said:
I'm sure if asked, Feeley could throw an incomplete pass deep too.
Click to expand...
Hey, if a guy hits a 450-foot foul ball, I doubt the pitcher's gonna put the next one right down the middle.
 
flintsilver7 said:
Sadly, I think we are. I really expected more from Saban, though he still has time to clean things up before the season starts.
Click to expand...
Saban was dealt a pretty bad hand at QB. I seriously doubt he thinks either of these guys is the long-term solution.
 
flintsilver7 said:
I've seen this stupid phrase tossed around here so many times the past two days. Most of Frerotte's supporters, now having absolutely nothing to hang on to, suggests that he's better because he's willing to throw the vaunted "deep ball." Well, as it stands now, Frerotte's longest is 44 yards and Feeley's is 36. Not a big difference there.

Think about it in terms of horse racing. Suppose you've got a guy who goes to the track every week and bets on the longshot frequently. More often than not, he loses. He'll probably come out ahead 20% of the time. Then you've got another guy who usually takes the safe bet, and almost always wins. Maybe he'll come out ahead 80% of the time. He might not win big, but he'll win.

This is an interesting parallel to Feeley and Frerotte. Some people are just A.J. haters, and won't give him credit no matter what he does. Feeley has a very strong arm, and I'm sure he could overthrow his receivers just as well as Frerotte. Some of you continue to amaze me with your inability to grasp this simple fact:

Inaccurately heaving the ball downfield will lead to more losses than victories.
Click to expand...

In your analysis, Feeley wins 80% of the time. Where did that translate to our record last year or this year so far? Let's call them as we see them....so far they both suck.
 
BALLS DEEP said:
In your analysis, Feeley wins 80% of the time. Where did that translate to our record last year or this year so far? Let's call them as we see them....so far they both suck.
Click to expand...

I wasn't referring to winning the game. It was an analogy. Feeley completes more passes because he throws to the high-percentage open receivers rather than the low-percentage receivers.

They don't "both suck." This sounds like a Frerotte supporter tactic.
 
Flip-flopping between two QBs is not the answer. Gus seems to have been the guy the past couple of weeks, so he should stay. He needs to get the snaps in practice to develop timing with the WRs so those deep passes become completion which forces defense to respect the pass. If it was AJ that has been starting the past couple of weeks, then I would say leave him in for the same reason. But the coaching staff seems to be leaning towards Gus, so I say leave it alone since neither is clearly better.
 
flounder97 said:
Flip-flopping between two QBs is not the answer. Gus seems to have been the guy the past couple of weeks, so he should stay. He needs to get the snaps in practice to develop timing with the WRs so those deep passes become completion which forces defense to respect the pass. If it was AJ that has been starting the past couple of weeks, then I would say leave him in for the same reason. But the coaching staff seems to be leaning towards Gus, so I say leave it alone since neither is clearly better.
Click to expand...

I thought Frerotte had the advantage already? Isn't that a tacit admission that Feeley is better than Frerotte? If Frerotte doesn't have this mysterious "timing," then he never had the "system advantage." In fact, he never had any advantage, and shouldn't be starting.

Feeley has never played with Maurice Mann (I don't think) and probably not David Boston either, so why does he have much better timing with them? What about Danny Farmer? How does Feeley have this "timing" down?

Face it, a good quarterback is supposed to be able to work with any receiver without having to spend two weeks in practice developing timing. Right now, Gus couldn't hit these guys on an open field with no defenders, and that's pathetic. We've also got The Crony Brothers publicly defending him and even blaming the rest of offense for Gus...well, being Gus.

I almost can't believe this is coming from the Dolphins organization.
 
flintsilver7 said:
Think about it in terms of horse racing. Suppose you've got a guy who goes to the track every week and bets on the longshot frequently. More often than not, he loses. He'll probably come out ahead 20% of the time. Then you've got another guy who usually takes the safe bet, and almost always wins. Maybe he'll come out ahead 80% of the time. He might not win big, but he'll win.
Click to expand...

Yeah, but don't toss out a horse racing analogy unless it threatens credibility. I just spent three weeks at Saratoga, same as every year. Your scenario is flawed because it brutally twists the bottom line, identical to what Feeley supporters always do. The guy who supposedly bets longshots but only wins 20% of the time might come out far ahead of the pantywaist bettor, the guy who thrills to collect $2.80 to win. Indeed, that clown is very similar to A.J. Feeley because he needs to win virtually EVERY wager to come out ahead, same as Feeley needs to complete almost every 2-yard pass to even threaten the red zone. The risk taker might hit one 30/1 shot every week and thrive, just like an occasionally accurate Frerotte bomb.

The dumbest old saying in horse racing was, "pick 'em to win, bet 'em to show." That's the mentality you're talking about, collecting tiny chunks and being convinced it's the proper methodology. That's Frerotte vs. Feeley in a nutshell. But any astute horseracing handicapper will hit the floor in a seizure of laughter at that strategy. Over a sample of hundreds of wagers you will ALWAYS come out further ahead by wagering to win instead of the so-called safer place or show. Just check an Andy Beyer book and see what he says in this regard. Yes, you tear up many more tickets but the end result is superior. Again, that's like accepting Frerotte's high number of incompletions with the knowledge it will result in something close to his lifetime 7.1 yards per pass attempt due to the deep throws, while Feeley's dumb dumpoffs net 5.8 yards per try.

Unless a wagering pool is askew I wouldn't dream of making a show wager. Nor a steady diet of low priced horses. They are historically overbet, the public falling in love with the favorite and sending him off at less than true odds. In fact, I turned the corner at Saratoga this summer by isolating a nice 11/1 shot on Whitney day a few weeks ago, a horse called All Trumps in a minor stakes race. He was 5/1 early line but the public ignored him all the way up to 11/1. That was value. He won handily. Later in the feature race, the Whitney Handicap, the favorite was Saint Liam at roughly 1/2 while chief rival Commentator, a speedball, was 3/1. I suppose your safe bettor would have identified Saint Liam. My gut told me the race was virtually a tossup, with just the slightest edge to Saint Liam, so I took the far superior price on Commentator and was rewarded by half a length. It got me slightly ahead for the meet, almost enough to cover expenses anyway.

How the heck did this turn into a horse racing diatribe?
 
Awsi Dooger said:
Yeah, but don't toss out a horse racing analogy unless it threatens credibility. I just spent three weeks at Saratoga, same as every year. Your scenario is flawed because it brutally twists the bottom line, identical to what Feeley supporters always do. The guy who supposedly bets longshots but only wins 20% of the time might come out far ahead of the pantywaist bettor, the guy who thrills to collect $2.80 to win. Indeed, that clown is very similar to A.J. Feeley because he needs to win virtually EVERY wager to come out ahead, same as Feeley needs to complete almost every 2-yard pass to even threaten the red zone. The risk taker might hit one 30/1 shot every week and thrive, just like an occasionally accurate Frerotte bomb.

The dumbest old saying in horse racing was, "pick 'em to win, bet 'em to show." That's the mentality you're talking about, collecting tiny chunks and being convinced it's the proper methodology. That's Frerotte vs. Feeley in a nutshell. But any astute horseracing handicapper will hit the floor in a seizure of laughter at that strategy. Over a sample of hundreds of wagers you will ALWAYS come out further ahead by wagering to win instead of the so-called safer place or show. Just check an Andy Beyer book and see what he says in this regard. Yes, you tear up many more tickets but the end result is superior. Again, that's like accepting Frerotte's high number of incompletions with the knowledge it will result in something close to his lifetime 7.1 yards per pass attempt due to the deep throws, while Feeley's dumb dumpoffs net 5.8 yards per try.

Unless a wagering pool is askew I wouldn't dream of making a show wager. Nor a steady diet of low priced horses. They are historically overbet, the public falling in love with the favorite and sending him off at less than true odds. In fact, I turned the corner at Saratoga this summer by isolating a nice 11/1 shot on Whitney day a few weeks ago, a horse called All Trumps in a minor stakes race. He was 5/1 early line but the public ignored him all the way up to 11/1. That was value. He won handily. Later in the feature race, the Whitney Handicap, the favorite was Saint Liam at roughly 1/2 while chief rival Commentator, a speedball, was 3/1. I suppose your safe bettor would have identified Saint Liam. My gut told me the race was virtually a tossup, with just the slightest edge to Saint Liam, so I took the far superior price on Commentator and was rewarded by half a length. It got me slightly ahead for the meet, almost enough to cover expenses anyway.

How the heck did this turn into a horse racing diatribe?
Click to expand...

Of course so far in the preseason, they both have 5.1 yard average per attempt. Yet Feeley keeps the drive alive longer giving the defense time to rest.
 
All this Feeley talk... Im sorry... Im haning my hat on what the coaches are going to do.... not what fellow fans want.

In the NFL.. coaches and players are paid to win. Not develop...All this talk about Feeley not being given a chance... he's been in the league 5 yrs... 5 chances.... dont make excuses for not winning a spot. You get your throws, make the most of them.

Saban and Linehan will decide. Its come down to Long Ball Boy.. or Touchy Feely Passes!...hahahaha!
 
Gitrdone said:
Of course so far in the preseason, they both have 5.1 yard average per attempt. Yet Feeley keeps the drive alive longer giving the defense time to rest.
Click to expand...

This is something he ignores. Jay Fiedler posted his career-worst YPA last season in this offense. Frerotte has shown signs of doing the same. Yet, he's suggesting that Frerotte will play to his career numbers completely irrespective of his surroundings, which is patently absurd.

He also took my horse racing analogy and completely ran away with it - also, apparently, losing sight of what I initially said. I'm not talking about betting between win, place, or show. I'm talking about betting - any of the three - on the horse with the 5/3 odds versus the horse with the 30/1 odds.

Let's make this a better analogy. The problem in football is after a few bets on longshots, if you don't win you can't bet anymore. You're in "time out." While you're in there, your defense needs to prevent the opposing offense from simply taking some of your money. If they don't, you need to keep betting on longshots to just break even. And so on. And the hole gets deeper.

Hey, it works if you've got Culpepper and Moss.
 
flintsilver7 said:
I've seen this stupid phrase tossed around here so many times the past two days. Most of Frerotte's supporters, now having absolutely nothing to hang on to, suggests that he's better because he's willing to throw the vaunted "deep ball." Well, as it stands now, Frerotte's longest is 44 yards and Feeley's is 36. Not a big difference there.

Think about it in terms of horse racing. Suppose you've got a guy who goes to the track every week and bets on the longshot frequently. More often than not, he loses. He'll probably come out ahead 20% of the time. Then you've got another guy who usually takes the safe bet, and almost always wins. Maybe he'll come out ahead 80% of the time. He might not win big, but he'll win.

This is an interesting parallel to Feeley and Frerotte. Some people are just A.J. haters, and won't give him credit no matter what he does. Feeley has a very strong arm, and I'm sure he could overthrow his receivers just as well as Frerotte. Some of you continue to amaze me with your inability to grasp this simple fact:

Inaccurately heaving the ball downfield will lead to more losses than victories.
Click to expand...

No. Throwing the ball down the field and taking the shots will allow you to make the explosive plays an offense needs to make to be successful. If you are afraid to attempt those throws, then the big plays will be markedly decreased.

You guys haven't learned anything from the Jay Fiedler era, when we couldn't go down the field even when we wanted to because of his pop gun arm. Now, we have two guys with above average arms. One is willing to make the throws. The other would rather dump it off to the running back for a 3 yard gain.
 
flintsilver7 said:
I wasn't referring to winning the game. It was an analogy. Feeley completes more passes because he throws to the high-percentage open receivers rather than the low-percentage receivers.

They don't "both suck." This sounds like a Frerotte supporter tactic.
Click to expand...


Actually, I support either qb that performs well for us. I am moreso a Feeley fan than a Frerotte fan but I really don't have a preference. At this point, I would support a bag of Purina Puppy Chow if it could throw for first downs and drive for td's. I'm a fan of all things Aqua and Orange.

However, your aanlysis labeled Feeley as the guy that comes through 80% opposite Frerotte that comes through 20%. I don't find your point valid. It isn't valid for deep throws or short throws. If Feeley had completed 80% of his passes last year he would have outperformed Peyton Manning. He even would have outperformed Marino of 84. My point is, he didn't.

I don't want to come across too harsh to you. But, I'm tired of people making unsubstantiated analogies on here. If you have a fact or a thought post it as such. Don't drum up analogies to artificially fluff you qb's stats.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom