The Fumble: Tannehill Checked Out of a Run Play

Do you think Tannehill should've changed the play to a pass?


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Shouright

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You still twisted the original quote to mean all kinds of things that weren't said. This whole thread is based on a fraud, and there are people who walked away misinformed. I believe the quotes in the article came out Monday and that you were corrected then. You mis-stated the situation and it's not ok. For someone who is obsessed with metrics, you of all people should be concerned about accuracy.

You took a benign quote and applied false meaning to it. When you bring one of your fanciful stats up for discussion we can all wonder what false premise underlies it now, especially when you stubbornly won't admit your inaccuracy or mistake.
This is a forum of people who interpret the same information in a multitude of different ways. The forum places no greater responsibility on the "thread-starter" than it does on anyone else for "accurate" interpretations of information. People reading the thread are free to give as much credibility to the thread-starter's interpretations as they are to anyone else's, and how much credibility I have in one post or in general in the eyes of the other members of the forum is not my concern. You're free to give me as much or as little credibility as you'd like, just as you're free to believe my personal interpretations of information are as accurate or as inaccurate as you'd like.

In other words, neither I nor anyone else has any responsibility for anyone else here. You have complete responsibility for yourself and your own thoughts and beliefs, including how credible you believe me to be. :)
 

Phindog

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Miami Dolphins’ Joe Philbin says play that led to fumble was the right call

BY MATT KELLEY

Amid a firestorm of second-guessing, the Dolphins coaching staff explained its decision to call a pass play on the second-and-8 play with 2:56 remaining that resulted in Mario Williams’ fatal sack and forced fumble against quarterback Ryan Tannehill.

Coach Joe Philbin and offensive coordinator Mike Sherman both said that they anticipated Buffalo putting eight defenders near the line of scrimmage to stop the run, the same strategy the Bills used to stuff the Dolphins’ first-down run.

“They played that exact front we thought they were going to play,” Sherman said.

With Philbin aware and supportive of the strategy, Sherman called a pass play with a built-in run option. Had the Bills aligned their defense with a seven-man front, Tannehill was instructed to audible to the handoff.

Sherman said that the offense wasn’t in clock-burning mode and was trying to pick up a first down to win the game.

“I think you have to be fairly aggressive,” Sherman said. “I’ve been in situations, myself, trying to protect a 21-20 lead and I’ve lost those games 27-21, so we’re going to be aggressive with a one-point lead in the fourth quarter. We’re not going to sit on it.”

Sherman continued: “With a one-point lead, our philosophy has been to be aggressive. If we got the first down, the game would have been won, and we wouldn’t be having this discussion at this point.”

Receiver Brian Hartline emphatically supported the strategy.

“You can only chew up the clock when you have the football,” Hartline said. “So it’s second-and-8 and you call a pass play with a check to a run if they go two-high.

“That’s completely the right call. Absolutely.”

Neither Philbin nor Sherman thought the play call was particularly risky, and both said they were disappointed with how the play was executed. But the question stilled remained why right tackle Tyson Clabo, who allowed a sack to Williams the previous drive, wasn’t given any help — a chip from a running back or tight end — in blocking the talented pass rusher.

Sherman explained that Clabo had help against Williams at certain points during the game, but doing so disrupted the offense.

“There are different variables,” Sherman said. “[Helping on Williams] would have made things complicated, but in an ideal world that would have been possible. You negate the structure of your pass offense in some ways because your route distribution is a little off. Can you do it? Yes. You’re limited a little bit by what you can do.”

Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/2013/10/22/3703626/miami-dolphins-joe-philbin-says.html#storylink=cpy
 

MadDog 88

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Thank you and I am on board with the strategy as are the high majority of guys who have played the game and/or understand the flawed concept of playing not to lose. Still, many won't stop because they are wiser than the coaches and players.
 

Austin Tatious

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This is a forum of people who interpret the same information in a multitude of different ways. The forum places no greater responsibility on the "thread-starter" than it does on anyone else for "accurate" interpretations of information. People reading the thread are free to give as much credibility to the thread-starter's interpretations as they are to anyone else's, and how much credibility I have in one post or in general in the eyes of the other members of the forum is not my concern. You're free to give me as much or as little credibility as you'd like, just as you're free to believe my personal interpretations of information are as accurate or as inaccurate as you'd like.

In other words, neither I nor anyone else has any responsibility for anyone else here. You have complete responsibility for yourself and your own thoughts and beliefs, including how credible you believe me to be. :)
1.Do you agree that the whole premise of this thread is false? If not, explain why.

2. Do you believe the title of the thread is misleading? If not, explain why.

3. Do you believe that the title of the poll is misleading? If not, explain why.

4. Do you understand that you twisted the original article and the quotes in it, falsely? If not, explain why.

5. Do you believe that someone who is focused on statistical metrics should be someone who is grounded on being careful to have accurate premises? If not, explain why.

6. Do you agree that for credibility sake, someone should admit when they made an error or created a false premise? If not, explain why.

7. Do you agree that when someone admits an error, they actually enhance their credibility? If not, explain why.

8. Do you agree that someone who read this thread days ago and did not come back to this thread could have left with an incorrect impression of what happened strictly based on how this thread and the poll were framed? If not, explain why.
 

Phindog

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Receiver Brian Hartline emphatically supported the strategy.
“You can only chew up the clock when you have the football,” Hartline said. “So it’s second-and-8 and you call a pass play with a check to a run if they go two-high.

“That’s completely the right call. Absolutely.”
So let it be written......
 

Shouright

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1.Do you agree that the whole premise of this thread is false? If not, explain why.

2. Do you believe the title of the thread is misleading? If not, explain why.

3. Do you believe that the title of the poll is misleading? If not, explain why.

4. Do you understand that you twisted the original article and the quotes in it, falsely? If not, explain why.

5. Do you believe that someone who is focused on statistical metrics should be someone who is grounded on being careful to have accurate premises? If not, explain why.

6. Do you agree that for credibility sake, someone should admit when they made an error or created a false premise? If not, explain why.

7. Do you agree that when someone admits an error, they actually enhance their credibility? If not, explain why.

8. Do you agree that someone who read this thread days ago and did not come back to this thread could have left with an incorrect impression of what happened strictly based on how this thread and the poll were framed? If not, explain why.
Listen, buddy, I'm not on your witness stand here. You can drop the F. Lee Bailey persona. We're here to talk about the Miami Dolphins, not how some guy who calls himself
"shouright" conducts himself on a message board. This will be my last post directed to you in this thread. :)
 

Austin Tatious

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You get systematically taken apart and find yourself in quick sand, but since you can't work yourself out of it, all you can do is cry "uncle." I gave you every fair opportunity to explain yourself, but you did nothing but deflect and embarrass yourself further and further.
 

sharp

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Well I suspect we're selectively remembering the times it's failed at the expense of the times it hasn't. Again, the team had a 72% probability of winning at the time, meaning Buffalo had quite an uphill battle ahead of itself to win the game as it stood. Instead of making them win the game, however, we gave it to them.
Where do you get the 72% from again? I see it as this simple. Run no gain, incomplete pass. Your one PI away from losing the game. Your up 1 point. Even if you get the first you still have to get another first to kill the total time. Maybe even more than that
 

Shouright

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Where do you get the 72% from again? I see it as this simple. Run no gain, incomplete pass. Your one PI away from losing the game. Your up 1 point. Even if you get the first you still have to get another first to kill the total time. Maybe even more than that
WPA starts with a Win Probability (WP) model of the game of football. Every situation in a game gives each opponent a particular chance of winning, and a WP model estimates those chances. The model created here at Advanced NFL Stats uses score, time, down, distance, and field position to estimate how likely each team will go on to win the game. For example, at the start of the 2nd quarter, a team down by 7 points with a 2nd down and 5 from their own 25 will win about 36% of the time--in other words a 0.36 WP.
http://www.advancednflstats.com/2010/01/win-probability-added-wpa-explained.html

Again, based on that model, even if the Dolphins had run twice, gained zero yards total, and punted the ball into the end zone at the two-minute mark, they still would've been 67% likely to win the game. Had they pinned Buffalo back at its own 10, that figure would've been 75%. There was no need to pass there IMO. You do just fine punting.

It may not seem real "macho," but do you want to be "macho," or do you want to do what keeps your probability of winning intact, while risking it as little as possible?
 

WVDolphan

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http://www.advancednflstats.com/2010/01/win-probability-added-wpa-explained.html

Again, based on that model, even if the Dolphins had run twice, gained zero yards total, and punted the ball into the end zone at the two-minute mark, they still would've been 67% likely to win the game. Had they pinned Buffalo back at its own 10, that figure would've been 75%. There was no need to pass there IMO. You do just fine punting.

It may not seem real "macho," but do you want to be "macho," or do you want to do what keeps your probability of winning intact, while risking it as little as possible?
But let me ask you this.

What would their win probability had been if they had gotten another first down on that possession?

Then we would need to know the probability of completing a pass on one of those 2 plays in order to get that first down.

Besides, I dont buy the 67% win probability with a punt there. All Buffalo needed was FG range to win. Giving them the ball back is dicey. I see teams lose more often than not in that circumstance. Up by 1 point and the opposition with the ball at the 20 with 2 minutes is not a good situation.

Pass the ball. Move the chains. Get first downs until you can take a knee. Thats how you win. Unfortunately Clabo got owned and Tannehill once again dropped the ball. I would try to throw it again if we had it to do all over.
 

2413fanphins

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what was our win probably after thiggy returned that kick to the 50ish yard line and all we needed was 15ish yards to kick a game winning field goal?
 

Shouright

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But let me ask you this.

What would their win probability had been if they had gotten another first down on that possession?

Then we would need to know the probability of completing a pass on one of those 2 plays in order to get that first down.

Besides, I dont buy the 67% win probability with a punt there. All Buffalo needed was FG range to win. Giving them the ball back is dicey. I see teams lose more often than not in that circumstance. Up by 1 point and the opposition with the ball at the 20 with 2 minutes is not a good situation.

Pass the ball. Move the chains. Get first downs until you can take a knee. Thats how you win. Unfortunately Clabo got owned and Tannehill once again dropped the ball. I would try to throw it again if we had it to do all over.
Good point. A first down on the same play in which we fumbled (assuming it would've been exactly an 8-yard play and put us on Buffalo's 42) would've given us a 93% win probability with about 2:48 left in the game. Given that, I would've advocated for a pass that minimized the risk of a sack, an incompletion, or an INT. There was a great play Henning used to call for Chad Henne under those circumstances where he would play action and roll Henne out to the right and have him hit Greg Camarillo on a comeback route just past the first down marker. That sort of play might have been the better choice. A very high-percentage pass play with very little risk involved. Tannehill could've thrown the ball away immediately on a roll-out if he was pressured.
 

DevilElias26

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What they seemingly did not realize at that point in the game was that it was more important to run clock/pin the bills deep than it was to try and pass the ball in that situation.
 
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