As many of you know, Im on the tanking bandwagon. This seems to be the hot topic these days on the board. Today @Dolphins81 replied to one of my posts with "Do your own research" after I replied to one of his posts listing top 5 QBs and their actual success in the NFL. This is by no means a call out as I think he has a point. Im out there pounding on the fact that picking earlier in the draft theorically holds an advantage and all I have to stand on is logic and theory.
I can do the research, I have some programming and playing with data ability but I'd like to have your input on a couple of things before I start with the project.
The main hurdle is quantifying success. This needs to be position specific as most stats make sense for some position groups but not for others. ie. OL play is very hard to quantify.
I think games started can be very misleading as its easier to start on bad teams and bad teams, on average, draft earlier...
I thought of using specific position stats, like TDs(or Rating, or TD%, or whatever) for QBS, Y/C for RBs(or total yards, TDs or whatever) but I feel like this approach is still dependant on the surroundings of the player.
What I've come up with is using the first contract value of each players. Of course we'd have to weigh in different positions as even bad QBs make more than great RBs... But I think judging success by the first contract should reflect actual return very well.
I want to know if you agree with that or better yet, have a better way to quantify success for a rookie player.
Thanks!
I can do the research, I have some programming and playing with data ability but I'd like to have your input on a couple of things before I start with the project.
The main hurdle is quantifying success. This needs to be position specific as most stats make sense for some position groups but not for others. ie. OL play is very hard to quantify.
I think games started can be very misleading as its easier to start on bad teams and bad teams, on average, draft earlier...
I thought of using specific position stats, like TDs(or Rating, or TD%, or whatever) for QBS, Y/C for RBs(or total yards, TDs or whatever) but I feel like this approach is still dependant on the surroundings of the player.
What I've come up with is using the first contract value of each players. Of course we'd have to weigh in different positions as even bad QBs make more than great RBs... But I think judging success by the first contract should reflect actual return very well.
I want to know if you agree with that or better yet, have a better way to quantify success for a rookie player.
Thanks!