The Upside, Downside, and Under the Surface | FinHeaven - Miami Dolphins Forums

The Upside, Downside, and Under the Surface

ckparrothead

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For the record, I'm somewhat skeptical of the Mueller hiring. He carries risks, IMO.

THE UPSIDE

Nick Saban needed a guy to team up with who has experience managing the salary cap. Randy Mueller has the most extensive hands-on experience of any GM candidate available, and he has it in the role of a talent evaluator (as opposed to a contract negotiator, like Bryan Widmeier). Mueller's had all the juice before, if I'm not mistaken, so the guy knows what he's doing. That kind of thing could be key to Nick Saban's getting acclimated to the salary capped NFL.

The guy has also made some well-documented good decisions. He tossed the Ricky bomb off his ship before it blew, drafted his effective replacement in only one shot (some teams takes a few shots before you land the right dude). He made some decent decisions in both Seattle and New Orleans. He worked his way up in Seattle.

There is also a POSSIBILITY (I say possible, not necessarily probable) that the guy really wants to work his way back up to being the guy with all the juice, somewhere in some NFL city. So, he should work hard in Miami under Saban, do his homework, make good decisions, and then he'll get his shot again. By now he must know that after being interviewed and passed over so many times for the GM role, he's not going to get back into it by staying with ESPN.


THE DOWNSIDE

I don't think this is a guy Saban can trust, especially long-term. Mueller is a power-hungry type of GM candidate, and he's also very arrogant. So is Saban, mind you. They will eventually clash, Saban will overrule Mueller and Mueller will hate Saban for it. If Mueller makes good on working hard to shine up his reputation and gets the Dolphins some good talent, we had better let this guy go off to some other team because if he stays he will position himself for a power struggle with Nick Saban over final say and authority.

This smells of a desperation move by Mueller, to get back into the game so that maybe he makes a better candidate than he has been. As such, he could take it as a sign that he needs to work really hard, make himself attractive to other teams. Or, he could have just done it for the sake of being paid by an NFL team, and he won't be looking to work hard, at least not until he actually gets what he wants, his own NFL team to run how he sees fit.

All offseason Saban has been catching balls of lightning and hoping to use them the right way without getting burned. This smells like the same thing. Lets hope it doesn't blow up.


UNDER THE SURFACE

Randy Mueller interviewed for the Dolphins GM gig last offseason, when it was eventually given to Rick Spielman. He felt insulted, like he was just toyed with to pick his brain for ideas and then they went ahead and hired their own guy.

He was sort of right. The main thing to take from it is they picked his brain for ideas. It is similar in my business. If you are looking to hire a research analyst to cover healthcare stocks, you interview him and the first thing you may ask him is what stocks he likes right now and why. Similarly, they may have asked Randy Mueller what you like on the dolphins, what you like in the next draft, what you like in free agency or the trade market, what you would change about the Dolphins, and what you do not like out there in the market or draft.

I'm guessing he nailed some predictions pretty dead on. He made a big enough impression that they hired him so fast after Spielman left and none of us saw it coming.

Issues he may have nailed:

1. Ricky is a pothead and can't ever be trusted to lead a franchise
2. Wade Smith at Left Tackle is worst than a joke
3. Our interior offensive line was weak
4. David Boston should not be trusted to stay injury free and out of trouble

I'm guessing he nailed at least two or three of those. The biggest one could have been revealing that Ricky was a pothead and should not ever be trusted. Maybe I'm a little bit fuzzy on the whole timeline, but the marijuana thing started coming to a head I think only a little after we hired Spielman as the full General Manager, no?

The main thing to take, under the surface of this move, in my opinion is that Mueller felt taken advantage of after his interview with the Dolphins because the Dolphins picked his brain apart and I am guessing he gave us his best stuff, and then they went ahead and hired their own guy. If he is still willing to join the Dolphins, I am guessing it is because the Dolphins largely avoided his suggestions. If the Dolphins had stolen all his ideas while hiring their own guy, I doubt he would have accepted a job under Huizenga and Jones and company.
 

MDFINFAN

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ckparrothead said:
For the record, I'm somewhat skeptical of the Mueller hiring. He carries risks, IMO.

THE UPSIDE

Nick Saban needed a guy to team up with who has experience managing the salary cap. Randy Mueller has the most extensive hands-on experience of any GM candidate available, and he has it in the role of a talent evaluator (as opposed to a contract negotiator, like Bryan Widmeier). Mueller's had all the juice before, if I'm not mistaken, so the guy knows what he's doing. That kind of thing could be key to Nick Saban's getting acclimated to the salary capped NFL.

The guy has also made some well-documented good decisions. He tossed the Ricky bomb off his ship before it blew, drafted his effective replacement in only one shot (some teams takes a few shots before you land the right dude). He made some decent decisions in both Seattle and New Orleans. He worked his way up in Seattle.

There is also a POSSIBILITY (I say possible, not necessarily probable) that the guy really wants to work his way back up to being the guy with all the juice, somewhere in some NFL city. So, he should work hard in Miami under Saban, do his homework, make good decisions, and then he'll get his shot again. By now he must know that after being interviewed and passed over so many times for the GM role, he's not going to get back into it by staying with ESPN.


THE DOWNSIDE

I don't think this is a guy Saban can trust, especially long-term. Mueller is a power-hungry type of GM candidate, and he's also very arrogant. So is Saban, mind you. They will eventually clash, Saban will overrule Mueller and Mueller will hate Saban for it. If Mueller makes good on working hard to shine up his reputation and gets the Dolphins some good talent, we had better let this guy go off to some other team because if he stays he will position himself for a power struggle with Nick Saban over final say and authority.

This smells of a desperation move by Mueller, to get back into the game so that maybe he makes a better candidate than he has been. As such, he could take it as a sign that he needs to work really hard, make himself attractive to other teams. Or, he could have just done it for the sake of being paid by an NFL team, and he won't be looking to work hard, at least not until he actually gets what he wants, his own NFL team to run how he sees fit.

All offseason Saban has been catching balls of lightning and hoping to use them the right way without getting burned. This smells like the same thing. Lets hope it doesn't blow up.


UNDER THE SURFACE

Randy Mueller interviewed for the Dolphins GM gig last offseason, when it was eventually given to Rick Spielman. He felt insulted, like he was just toyed with to pick his brain for ideas and then they went ahead and hired their own guy.

He was sort of right. The main thing to take from it is they picked his brain for ideas. It is similar in my business. If you are looking to hire a research analyst to cover healthcare stocks, you interview him and the first thing you may ask him is what stocks he likes right now and why. Similarly, they may have asked Randy Mueller what you like on the dolphins, what you like in the next draft, what you like in free agency or the trade market, what you would change about the Dolphins, and what you do not like out there in the market or draft.

I'm guessing he nailed some predictions pretty dead on. He made a big enough impression that they hired him so fast after Spielman left and none of us saw it coming.

Issues he may have nailed:

1. Ricky is a pothead and can't ever be trusted to lead a franchise
2. Wade Smith at Left Tackle is worst than a joke
3. Our interior offensive line was weak
4. David Boston should not be trusted to stay injury free and out of trouble

I'm guessing he nailed at least two or three of those. The biggest one could have been revealing that Ricky was a pothead and should not ever be trusted. Maybe I'm a little bit fuzzy on the whole timeline, but the marijuana thing started coming to a head I think only a little after we hired Spielman as the full General Manager, no?

The main thing to take, under the surface of this move, in my opinion is that Mueller felt taken advantage of after his interview with the Dolphins because the Dolphins picked his brain apart and I am guessing he gave us his best stuff, and then they went ahead and hired their own guy. If he is still willing to join the Dolphins, I am guessing it is because the Dolphins largely avoided his suggestions. If the Dolphins had stolen all his ideas while hiring their own guy, I doubt he would have accepted a job under Huizenga and Jones and company.


This whole thing is crazy to me CK, I'm like you, I'm not really sold on Muller, and I'm doing my best to support this whole thing. I don't like it, not one bit...Muller is behind in talent evaluations, and the inner workings of a organization. As you've started his ego's as big as Saban's. I'm hoping this works..but I think you're right, he's now using the phins to get back to the all powerfull GM position, just like he thinks we used him last year. Mr. H is such a hands off guy that Muller maybe at the Masters for years to come on the phin's dime :lol: scouting some player...The fact that saban likes to use his coaches as a part of the evaluation of draftees will be interesting working with, "Mr. I know what we need Muller". All in all, it's a done deal..I hope this fiasco is finished and the phins get back to football...I can't stand the Business side of Saban right now, in terms of how he does business..thank God I think he's a good coach and brought in some good coaches.
 

painnotpleasure

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ckparrothead said:
For the record, I'm somewhat skeptical of the Mueller hiring. He carries risks, IMO.

THE UPSIDE

Nick Saban needed a guy to team up with who has experience managing the salary cap. Randy Mueller has the most extensive hands-on experience of any GM candidate available, and he has it in the role of a talent evaluator (as opposed to a contract negotiator, like Bryan Widmeier). Mueller's had all the juice before, if I'm not mistaken, so the guy knows what he's doing. That kind of thing could be key to Nick Saban's getting acclimated to the salary capped NFL.

The guy has also made some well-documented good decisions. He tossed the Ricky bomb off his ship before it blew, drafted his effective replacement in only one shot (some teams takes a few shots before you land the right dude). He made some decent decisions in both Seattle and New Orleans. He worked his way up in Seattle.

There is also a POSSIBILITY (I say possible, not necessarily probable) that the guy really wants to work his way back up to being the guy with all the juice, somewhere in some NFL city. So, he should work hard in Miami under Saban, do his homework, make good decisions, and then he'll get his shot again. By now he must know that after being interviewed and passed over so many times for the GM role, he's not going to get back into it by staying with ESPN.


THE DOWNSIDE

I don't think this is a guy Saban can trust, especially long-term. Mueller is a power-hungry type of GM candidate, and he's also very arrogant. So is Saban, mind you. They will eventually clash, Saban will overrule Mueller and Mueller will hate Saban for it. If Mueller makes good on working hard to shine up his reputation and gets the Dolphins some good talent, we had better let this guy go off to some other team because if he stays he will position himself for a power struggle with Nick Saban over final say and authority.

This smells of a desperation move by Mueller, to get back into the game so that maybe he makes a better candidate than he has been. As such, he could take it as a sign that he needs to work really hard, make himself attractive to other teams. Or, he could have just done it for the sake of being paid by an NFL team, and he won't be looking to work hard, at least not until he actually gets what he wants, his own NFL team to run how he sees fit.

All offseason Saban has been catching balls of lightning and hoping to use them the right way without getting burned. This smells like the same thing. Lets hope it doesn't blow up.


UNDER THE SURFACE

Randy Mueller interviewed for the Dolphins GM gig last offseason, when it was eventually given to Rick Spielman. He felt insulted, like he was just toyed with to pick his brain for ideas and then they went ahead and hired their own guy.

He was sort of right. The main thing to take from it is they picked his brain for ideas. It is similar in my business. If you are looking to hire a research analyst to cover healthcare stocks, you interview him and the first thing you may ask him is what stocks he likes right now and why. Similarly, they may have asked Randy Mueller what you like on the dolphins, what you like in the next draft, what you like in free agency or the trade market, what you would change about the Dolphins, and what you do not like out there in the market or draft.

I'm guessing he nailed some predictions pretty dead on. He made a big enough impression that they hired him so fast after Spielman left and none of us saw it coming.

Issues he may have nailed:

1. Ricky is a pothead and can't ever be trusted to lead a franchise
2. Wade Smith at Left Tackle is worst than a joke
3. Our interior offensive line was weak
4. David Boston should not be trusted to stay injury free and out of trouble

I'm guessing he nailed at least two or three of those. The biggest one could have been revealing that Ricky was a pothead and should not ever be trusted. Maybe I'm a little bit fuzzy on the whole timeline, but the marijuana thing started coming to a head I think only a little after we hired Spielman as the full General Manager, no?

The main thing to take, under the surface of this move, in my opinion is that Mueller felt taken advantage of after his interview with the Dolphins because the Dolphins picked his brain apart and I am guessing he gave us his best stuff, and then they went ahead and hired their own guy. If he is still willing to join the Dolphins, I am guessing it is because the Dolphins largely avoided his suggestions. If the Dolphins had stolen all his ideas while hiring their own guy, I doubt he would have accepted a job under Huizenga and Jones and company.
Great post ck! You made some great points indeed. Lets just hope the Upside outweighs the Downside and Saban can manage everything if they were to ever clash which most likely is going to happen eventually.
 

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  1. Agree - I don't think this is a guy Saban can trust, especially long-term. Mueller is a power-hungry type of GM candidate, and he's also very arrogant. So is Saban, mind you. They will eventually clash, Saban will overrule Mueller and Mueller will hate Saban for it.
  2. Agree - This smells of a desperation move by Mueller, to get back into the game so that maybe he makes a better candidate than he has been. As such, he could take it as a sign that he needs to work really hard, make himself attractive to other teams.
  3. Do not agree - All offseason Saban has been catching balls of lightning and hoping to use them the right way without getting burned. This smells like the same thing.
  4. The way of the world - Randy Mueller interviewed for the Dolphins GM gig last offseason, when it was eventually given to Rick Spielman. He felt insulted, like he was just toyed with to pick his brain for ideas and then they went ahead and hired their own guy.
Generally I feel the same way as you can see.... Saban is in charge... Saban defines what he needs by position and physical/mental attributes....Meuller needs to get back in the game, he is motivated and knows how to assess and find players.... if it works for 2 years great.... he just needs to check his ego at the door if he wants to stay in the league....
 

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I'd say that three long years of being an ESPN analyst, at a vastly reduced salary, has humbled Randy and hopefully allowed him time to reflect and recall exactly how he rose through the front office ranks in the first place.

Patience, honesty, loyalty, tireless work ethic and respect is how you climb all the way from waterboy to the head post in Seattle and eventually New Orleans.

From what I've read on the man, the general consensus is that he's an astute talent evaluator, a great negotiator that is well connected in league circles (agents, coaches, etc.) and works around the clock to acquire talent. His personnel record while with Seattle and New Orleans compares very favorably to what's transpired in Miami dating all the way back to '96 in JJ's first season. His list of successful acquisitions is lengthy and was already more or less documented in an earlier post. He and Saban combined will give Miami an extremely effective and refined duo that WILL bring in talent, and at a much higher rate than anything we've seen for around here for some time. The days of maybe landing one quality player per draft should be over, and Randy McMichael's, Chris Chambers' and Ogunleye's should start happening much more often.

Somewhere along the line, Mueller may have become a bit arrogant and reportedly engaged in a few questionable out of office activities while with New Orleans, hence his abrupt termination. The hope here says, as does common sense, that his three year absence from the league brought back a healthy dose of humility and hunger to succeed and to not allow ego or greed get in the way with this opportunity.

Besides, there are no illusions as to who has final say on matters, as it's verbage in the 3 year contract he just agreed to 24-48 hours ago.

Basically, I like it.
 

thedayafter

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Smithboy said:
I'd say that three long years of being an ESPN analyst, at a vastly reduced salary, has humbled Randy and hopefully allowed him time to reflect and recall exactly how he rose through the front office ranks in the first place.

Patience, honesty, loyalty, tireless work ethic and respect is how you climb all the way from waterboy to the head post in Seattle and eventually New Orleans.

From what I've read on the man, the general consensus is that he's an astute talent evaluator, a great negotiator that is well connected in league circles (agents, coaches, etc.) and works around the clock to acquire talent. His personnel record while with Seattle and New Orleans compares very favorably to what's transpired in Miami dating all the way back to '96 in JJ's first season. His list of successful acquisitions is lengthy and was already more or less documented in an earlier post. He and Saban combined will give Miami an extremely effective and refined duo that WILL bring in talent, and at a much higher rate than anything we've seen for around here for some time.

Somewhere along the line, Mueller may have become a bit arrogant and reportedly engaged in a few questionable out of office activities while with New Orleans, hence his abrupt termination. The hope here says, as does common sense, that his three year absence from the league brought back a healthy dose of humility and hunger to succeed and to not allow ego or greed get in the way with this opportunity.

Besides, there are no illusions as to who has final say on matters, as it's verbage in the 3 year contract he just agreed to 24-48 hours ago.

Basically, I like it.

Well said...:D
 

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thedayafter said:
Well said...:D

Keep in mind this was an opinion, not a fact...with that said, let's hope for the best.
 

ckparrothead

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I'd say that three long years of being an ESPN analyst, at a vastly reduced salary, has humbled Randy and hopefully allowed him time to reflect and recall exactly how he rose through the front office ranks in the first place.

That's a nice story, but I don't think anyone should assume that unless they are very close to the situation and know Mueller's mind a bit.
 

ckparrothead

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BTW I see Mueller as kind of a guy that makes his way a little bit on problem child type athletes, and as such he successfully (and unsuccessfully at times) prides himself on knowing what problem children to pull the trigger on at what time and what problem children to avoid and get rid of.

At various times he's made good use of, and gotten rid of or avoided, some scummy guys.
 

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Just an assumption, CK.

I don't imagine that when he got blindsided with his termination in New Orleans that he thought he'd be out of the league for three years.

We're overanalyzing to a certain extent, anyway. Whatever motivation he has for returning to the league doesn't really matter, because in the end he knows that he'll be held accountable for the job he does and Saban doesn't strike me as a fool who'll let incompetence and poor performance slide under the radar.

His resume is impressive in terms of the function he'll be providing, and hopefully he's learned from whatever issues have caused friction in the past. If he screws up his tenure in Miami, it wouldn't look good.
 

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Yeah, Mueller has taken a few gambles on guys with character flags in the past. Dale Carter and Albert Connell, to name a few. Saban has shown he's willing to give one last chance as well.

The low risk, high reward approach is fine in theory until it starts blowing up in the franchise's face too many times. Just doesn't look good from a pr perspective.

We'll see how these recent gambles work out...
 
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