Mile High Fin
Pro Bowler
Assuming we end up tied with NE, (which means NE must lose 1 more game than Miami during next 4 weeks), would we win tie-breaking procedures to become AFC East champs?
Here's the tie-breaking rules to break a tie WITHIN A DIVISION:
1. Head-to-head.
2. Best division record.
3. Best common games record.
4. Best conference record.
5. Strength of victory.
6. Strength of schedule.
LEVEL 2 tie-break (Division record):
If NE loses to Buffalo, we'd win on division record (4-2 vs. 3-3).
LEVEL 3 tie-break (Common games):
If NE wins at Buffalo, it'd go to "common games" record.
We have 14 common games with NE.
Only differences in our schedules:
Miami: played SD & Pit
NE: played Den & Bal
Miami is currently 6-5 in the common games.
NE is currently 6-4 in the common games.
Thus, since my assumption is we end up tied, then NE must have 1 more loss than Miami going forward (and for it to be at LEVEL 3 tie-break, NE cannot lose to Buffalo), which by definition means NE would lose 1 more "common game" going forward.
So, NE would thus have a 5th loss in common games, evening us up.
Therefore:
- at WORST, we'd tie LEVEL 3 with NE (ie, we go 4-0, NE goes 3-1; or we go 3-1, NE goes 2-2, and our 1 loss is NOT to Pit)
- at BEST, we'd win LEVEL 3 with NE (ie, we go 3-1 with the loss vs. Pit, and with NE going 2-2).
LEVEL 4 tie-break (Conference Record):
Miami is currently 4-4 in AFC.
NE is currently 5-4 in AFC.
We have 4 AFC games left. NE has 3 AFC games left (and Carolina).
To be here at LEVEL 4, means:
1. NE beat Buffalo; and
2. We go 4-0, NE 3-1......or...... we go 3-1 (beating Pit), and NE 2-2
We win LEVEL 4 if we go 4-0, and NE loses to Jax or Hou.
If NE loses to Carolina, then we Tie LEVEL 4, and go to LEVEL 5.
LEVEL 5 tie-break (Strength of Victory):
If it comes to this, strength of victory is figured by calculating the combined winning percentage of the opponents a team has beaten.
Example:
If two teams end with identical records, combine the records of the opponents in each of the team's wins and calculate the total winning percentage. The team whose opponents have the higher winning percentage wins the tiebreaker.
In Miami's 6 wins-to-date, our opponent's win % is = .345
In NE's 7 wins-to-date, their opponent's win % is = .410
(Note: Tampa Bay at 1-11 pulls this % way down for both teams).
Unfortunately, NE would most likely maintain this lead, and NE will probably win LEVEL 5 tie-break (pending rest of season of course).
CONCLUSION
Consequently, the biggest keys for us are:
1. Buffalo beating NE (we win at LEVEL 2)
2. Miami going 3-0 the next 3 weeks (we win LEVEL 3)
3. Jax or Hou beating NE (we win LEVEL 4)
Good news: Miami goes 4-0, and NE goes 3-1 (with loss to Buf, Hou, Jax), Miami will win tie-breakers LEVEL 2, 3, or 4.
Bad news: we probably lose LEVEL 5, which would be this:
Miami goes 4-0 and NE goes 3-1 (losing to Carolina).
If this happens, we most likely lose the LEVEL 5 tie-breaker.
Here's the tie-breaking rules to break a tie WITHIN A DIVISION:
1. Head-to-head.
2. Best division record.
3. Best common games record.
4. Best conference record.
5. Strength of victory.
6. Strength of schedule.
LEVEL 2 tie-break (Division record):
If NE loses to Buffalo, we'd win on division record (4-2 vs. 3-3).
LEVEL 3 tie-break (Common games):
If NE wins at Buffalo, it'd go to "common games" record.
We have 14 common games with NE.
Only differences in our schedules:
Miami: played SD & Pit
NE: played Den & Bal
Miami is currently 6-5 in the common games.
NE is currently 6-4 in the common games.
Thus, since my assumption is we end up tied, then NE must have 1 more loss than Miami going forward (and for it to be at LEVEL 3 tie-break, NE cannot lose to Buffalo), which by definition means NE would lose 1 more "common game" going forward.
So, NE would thus have a 5th loss in common games, evening us up.
Therefore:
- at WORST, we'd tie LEVEL 3 with NE (ie, we go 4-0, NE goes 3-1; or we go 3-1, NE goes 2-2, and our 1 loss is NOT to Pit)
- at BEST, we'd win LEVEL 3 with NE (ie, we go 3-1 with the loss vs. Pit, and with NE going 2-2).
LEVEL 4 tie-break (Conference Record):
Miami is currently 4-4 in AFC.
NE is currently 5-4 in AFC.
We have 4 AFC games left. NE has 3 AFC games left (and Carolina).
To be here at LEVEL 4, means:
1. NE beat Buffalo; and
2. We go 4-0, NE 3-1......or...... we go 3-1 (beating Pit), and NE 2-2
We win LEVEL 4 if we go 4-0, and NE loses to Jax or Hou.
If NE loses to Carolina, then we Tie LEVEL 4, and go to LEVEL 5.
LEVEL 5 tie-break (Strength of Victory):
If it comes to this, strength of victory is figured by calculating the combined winning percentage of the opponents a team has beaten.
Example:
If two teams end with identical records, combine the records of the opponents in each of the team's wins and calculate the total winning percentage. The team whose opponents have the higher winning percentage wins the tiebreaker.
In Miami's 6 wins-to-date, our opponent's win % is = .345
In NE's 7 wins-to-date, their opponent's win % is = .410
(Note: Tampa Bay at 1-11 pulls this % way down for both teams).
Unfortunately, NE would most likely maintain this lead, and NE will probably win LEVEL 5 tie-break (pending rest of season of course).
CONCLUSION
Consequently, the biggest keys for us are:
1. Buffalo beating NE (we win at LEVEL 2)
2. Miami going 3-0 the next 3 weeks (we win LEVEL 3)
3. Jax or Hou beating NE (we win LEVEL 4)
Good news: Miami goes 4-0, and NE goes 3-1 (with loss to Buf, Hou, Jax), Miami will win tie-breakers LEVEL 2, 3, or 4.
Bad news: we probably lose LEVEL 5, which would be this:
Miami goes 4-0 and NE goes 3-1 (losing to Carolina).
If this happens, we most likely lose the LEVEL 5 tie-breaker.
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